Australia NT Season 10

[Franky]

Do you have any idea of who can be the leader on Sunday? 

= Niles Thomas ( ZBT ).

Maybe this evening, more likely tomorrow morning, I make the preview of NT race 6 already.
Also then I will select a few more, but a big chance I select the final 2 or 3 cyclists on Saturday, a few days later it can look different.
Because many Aussies are really, really close in the estimated GV for this specific climbhills race.
( I have several GV percentages, just in case my estimated GV is not accurate, and many are really close in every different GV )
And for sure the GV is not the leading factor in who I select as good helpers.
For example a good climb skill (in combo with a good GV) for the first 2 sections, and for example active weather icons are of influence too.

Oh... such a shame for Joe...he was waiting for this NT race for long time ago...

[Vos]

I can understand that, and there is a reason Joe Ryan is one of the already 4 selected cyclists.
He and teamcaptain Niles Thomas have the best finish of these 4, but Thomas his GV is 1,23 higher and he has an active weather icon.

[Franky]

I can understand that, and there is a reason Joe Ryan is one of the already 4 selected cyclists.
He and teamcaptain Niles Thomas have the best finish of these 4, but Thomas his GV is 1,23 higher and he has an active weather icon.

I see...Well, Joe will help as much as he can to achieve our goal, the 7th (and a half) medal in 9 seasons! (as in Season 1 we didnt have NT races)

[Vos]

RACE 6 : BARCELONA

8ºC

Barcelona,
The very first climbhills NT race in CFF3.
In theory there are many better foreign climbhills specialists, but in this specific climbhills race it is hard to estimate how Australia will perform.
I do expect some points, and those are very welcome in the battle for a podiumplace in the season ranking.
Belgium is 1st and seems to me out of reach, ánd the top favorite to be the world champion again.
Australia is 2nd, and most likely Ukraine, Spain and France are fierce rivals for a podiumplace. What will be more clear after this race.

Australia NT selection :

Niles Thomas* ( 28 ) ZBT   ( debut )
Phil Burgess ( 28 ) Cycling   ( debut )
Nate Henderson* ( 28 ) TeamSerfin
Joe Ryan ( 28 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Mike Edgar ( 28 ) $Tourmalet    ( debut )
Fraser Slipper* ( 27 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team   ( debut )
Kevin Bush ( 25 ) CC_Porco_Jones
Steven Marbley ( 25 ) OphiukoCT   ( debut )
Royce Black ( 23 ) Sacido   ( debut )

[Franky]

Fraser is 27!! 

[Vos]

Fraser is 27!! 

adjusted, he is the benjamin of the current selected cyclists. 

[Franky]

And whats the meaning of the *?? that only 3 of them have it

[Vos]

* = an active weather icon ( it can be any active weather icon, it does not have to mean a cold icon )

[Vos]

The final 3 cyclists are selected.

[ophiuko]

Steven Marbley is really happy to help his national team at least once in his career. He is 25, not 28 

[Vos]

Yes, thanks for being perceptive, Ophioko, adjusted to 25. 
It was a writing error because I knew Steven Marbley is 25yo, if he was 28yo he had less chance to be selected, he has many Australian rivals.
Two not selected cyclists have even a better estimated GV, but I assume (and hope) Marbley is a better helper.

Thé future Australian teamcaptain in climbhills races ( with mountain-finish ánd hills-finish ), the just 22yo Martin Hunter ( Quickstepbronx ),
is not even selected and despite his very young age he is already very close in GV to this selection.
Luckily I gave him already an xp selection earlier this season, what was his debut.
No place for semi-xp cyclists in this important NT race.

[Vos]

Very good results in the very first climbhills NT race ;
6º Niles Thomas ( teamcaptain ), 14º Joe Ryan ( the only free role of Australia ) and 18º Nate Henderson ( helper ).
This gives a total of 270 points. 
Only the Netherlands ( 315 points ) and Belgium ( 300 points due to the victory of VanKerckhove ) did better in NT race 6.
Also Estonia scored a good amount of points ( 250 ) and is the new nr3, just 75 points ahead on the new nr4 the Netherlands.
France ( 150 ), Spain ( 70 ) and Ukraine ( 40 ) did much worse as I expected, what is good for Australia. 

TOP 10 SEASON RANKING, with 1 more NT race to go :

1º    1715   
2º    1555   
3º    1150   
4º    1075   
5º    1060   
6º    1050   
7º     980   
8º     815   
9º     785   
split 10º     680   
split 10º     680

[Franky]

Great great race!! I think we have a few chances of winning this season, Angus Friend has the key, as we have a gap of 160 points only...

[Vos]

Well, at the moment it is very uncertain with a gap of 160 points, despite Australia has Angus Friend.

The best 3 flat-cobble-specialists in the golden ranking looks promising :
Australia =  nr 2,  nr 24,  nr 31
Belgium =  nr 16,  nr 25,  nr 28
In theory this is a difference of 190 points ( nr 2 versus nr 16 ), what is just 30 points more as the 160 points target, even in theory exciting.

However, looking at the past results in the NT flat cobble races it does not look good / or it will be very exciting,
because in the past NT seasons Australia only one time won with more than 160 points in the flatcobble NT race.
And that was a different flatcobble race with one more flat section.

s9 --> no flat cobble NT race

s8 --> CFFCC 230km = Australia (1º+19º) 320, versus Belgium (4º+18º) 230 = difference of 90 points

s7 --> CFFCC 230km = Australia (1º+18º) 330, versus Belgium (17º) 40 = difference of 290 points

s6 --> CFCCC 211km = Australia (4º+18º) 230, versus Belgium (12º) 100 = difference of 130 points

s5 --> CFCCC 190km, exactly the same race in Breskens = Australia (4º+17º) 240, versus Belgium (13º) 90 = difference of 150 points

s4 --> no flat cobble race

s3 --> CFCCC 190km, exactly the same race in Breskens = Australia (3º) 225, versus Belgium (11º) 110 = difference of 115 points

s2 --> CFFCC 230km = Australia (5º) 180, versus Belgium (4º+10º+12º) 420 = the only time Belgium was better

Some conclusions can be made out of this :
Of course, seasons 2 and 3 do not apply, too long ago, the situation changed a lot.
And it seems to me Angus Friend is better in the cobble race with 2 flat sections than in the Breskens cobble race.
Besides this, it shows that 160 points is a much bigger gap than it seems,
and probably Australia is depended on a failure race of Belgium to have a chance to be world champion.
Also remarkable (and maybe a bit worrying) that the best ranked Belgium flat cobble specialist never scored points so far.

But at least Australia still has a (maybe little ) chance after the good NT race 6 where much more points were scored as expected.
And the Belgian VanKerckhove won stage 3 Catalunya this season, so not surprising he did great in this exact same NT race 6 in Barcelona.
Anyway, it is not impossible that Australia can be world champion, and I did not expect this before NT race 6, what I mentioned in the preview :

Belgium is 1st and seems to me out of reach, ánd the top favorite to be the world champion again.

Also I expected that the battle for a podiumplace would be very fierce and many rival countries close together before NT race 7.
But Australia has at the moment a good gap of 400 points towards the number 3, what normally should be enough to finish at least 2nd.

[Vos]

RACE 7 : BRESKENS

29ºC

Breskens, the Netherlands,
It looks very good that Australia will be 2nd this season, and even has a little chance to be the new world champion.
As the picture shows, the main target is Belgium. With home advantage, because almost this whole race is on Belgian cobblestones.
To have a very strong selection, only 1 xp cyclist and the 8 best flatcobble-specialists are selected. Of course, Angus Friend is the teamcaptain.

Australia NT selection :

Angus Friend ( 27 ) °Peachy°Melocotons
Eric Kelly* ( 28 ) Antequera
Kent McClure ( 28 ) CobbleCrushers
John Battle ( 28 ) Antequera
Jasper Sandfort ( 28 ) HorsCategorieProTeam
Jonny Glass ( 28 ) CCPicazo
Dylan Gilliam* ( 28 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Ron Dardar ( 28 ) Antequera
Kirk Workman** ( 22 ) Aurora_Australis   ( debut )