AUSTRALIAN NT - Season 20

[JGonmar6]

Alex Ablett   Edad : 19   Sueldo : 852
Resistencia : 31   Sprint : 28   Montaña : 5
LLano : 23   Pavés : 56   Tecnica : 68
Descenso : 33   Colinas : 67   Agresividad : 58
Crono : 10   TraEqui : 67   Experiencia : 0
Precio : 3 500 000   Dias Quedan : 3

[Aurora Australis]

Race 3

Selections :
Jasper Blair   30   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team (team leader)
Ian Hamsten   27   Plopsala
Leroy Ablett   27   Vicam
Jasper Caan   23   SaulSalinasTeam
Horace Stamer   20   Sacido
Richard Davidson   31   Luka_Warriors
Tim Malone   30   Pantani28

Stu Vaughn   20   JGMTeam (xp)
Christian Post   23   SentinelChickens (xp - may change as TT-climb isn't common in NTs, but alternatives are those already with xp NTs, those without races by team, those with uncertain progressions, or Alex Trautemberg)

Prospects: Ryan Pierre, who finished 4th in last season's sprint race, is now 33 years & has decayed considerably.  Instead it's back to sprint-hill-sprinter Jasper Blair to seek points.  His goal is simply to tag the tails of the expected winners of the race, with a top ten our goal.  Jasper Caan, aged 23 (and already gold), is his third domestique & heir apparent for the leader's position within two seasons; and Horace Stamer, the other potential long-term team leader if Sacido keeps him at peak training efficiency, is the fifth selection.

Results:
6th   Jasper Blair      0: 00"   160 points

You wonder whether you could have done better, however Australia does move up in the standings, and none of the other NTs have advanced to a threatening position, so it's job done.

[Zatarra]

In my help to find hillssprinters en cobblehillers I accidentally found Australia's next top hiller.

Sean Chapman   Age : 19   Wage : 860
Stamina : 46   Sprint : 28   Climbing : 39
Flat : 50   Cobblestone : 12   Technique : 61
Downhill : 59  Hills : 60   Aggressiveness : 78
Time Trial : 12   Teamwork : 11   Experience : 0
Price : 1   Days left : 3   Stages raced : 0

[Aurora Australis]

Race 4

Selections :
Kirk Workman   Aurora_Australis   32 **
Bud Mount   ChronoTony   28
Jason Duffy   Shiro_Lions   28
Walt Judd   Matterhorn   28
Christian Pocock   Aurora_Australis   27 *
Kirk Clinton   Aurora_Australis   27
Nobby Licuria   Aurora_Australis   27
Tod Henderson   Aurora_Australis   27
* weather bonus

Prospects: Workman's last serious opportunity, Mount favoured, Licuria & Henderson possible surprises, with Pocock a top 10 opportunity.  Unusually, the 7th & 8th picks are clear this early too, being substantially faster than any 9th option.  At the moment Julian Frances age 30 from Bergtoppers is short favourite as the 9th selection from my other two full age TTers or Steve Odom, or a less likely Paul Williams.

8 cyclists expected to score points, the final pick is a remote chance.
Results:
They did everything except win the race.  7 in top 9, all in top 20, and a new record points haul for a single NT race.

2nd   Tod Henderson      0: 00"   250 points
4th   Bud Mount         0: 02"   200 points
5th   Kirk Workman      0: 02"   180 points
6th   Kirk Clinton      0: 03"   160 points
7th   Christian Pocock      0: 03"   150 points
8th   Walt Judd         0: 04"   140 points
9th   Nobby Licuria      0: 04"   130 points
14th   Jason Duffy      0: 07"   80 points
17th   Julian Frances      0: 08"   40 points

Total 1330 points

[Vos]

A 6th place with Blair in a flat sprint race = very well done, AA ! 
Good luck in the time trial.

I see that Russia is the surprising leader in the season ranking, and in contrast to previous season,
now it has a NT selection in the time trial because my Makarov is already selected.
But he is most likely the only Russian who can score points, so, no problem to the Australian supremacy in the time trial.

[ophiuko]

Just to mention that I already spent all my money (77M), so I won't be needing more hill sprinters. I've had very bad luck this season, lots of low talents, including the 3 promising australian riders (2 promoted and 1 from Aurora Australis). Hopefully Craig Haber will be a good talent, finger crossed.

[Aurora Australis]

The final selection was as expected.  As we wait for the race, here's a fresh look at the current stats of the next TT generation.

FLAT-TTers            
#   Score   Name   Age   Team
1   92.47   Jonny Alfier   23   Aurora_Australis
2   92.43   Eric Armstrong   23   Aurora_Australis
3   88.31   Gilbert Johnston   22   catapunchimpon
4   87.75   Lenny Taylor   22   Aurora_Australis
5   87.57   Alex Trautemberg   22   Aurora_Australis
6   87.53   Billy Janson   22   Aurora_Australis
7   87.30   Bob Iverson   22   catapunchimpon
8   86.31   Eddy Hines   22   Aurora_Australis
14   80.70   Oliver Churchil   21   PDM_cycling_team
16   78.69   Jonathan Trump   21   PDM_cycling_team
17   78.11   Ashley Filsbourne   21   Trisquel

HILL-TTers            
#   Score   Name   Age   Team
1   81.98   Eric Armstrong   23   Aurora_Australis
2   81.36   Alex Trautemberg   22   Aurora_Australis
3   79.77   Eddy Hines   22   Aurora_Australis
4   78.70   Jonny Alfier   23   Aurora_Australis
5   78.52   Lenny Taylor   22   Aurora_Australis
6   78.42   Gilbert Johnston   22   catapunchimpon
7   78.24   Stu Reid   22   catapunchimpon
14   74.44   Oliver Churchil   21   PDM_cycling_team
17   73.36   Jonathan Trump   21   PDM_cycling_team

CLIMB-TTers            
#   Score   Name   Age   Team
1   91.27   Christian Post   23   SentinelChickens
2   90.48   Daniel Finn   23   SentinelChickens
3   88.03   Fraser Kitchens   22   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
4   80.10   Jonny Alfier   23   Aurora_Australis

Something worth noting, there are over a hundred TTers aged between 20 & 22 currently in training in all TT teams (mainly 20-21), and possibly more unknown teams.  There's going to be a fair few of those teams & cyclists crowded out in this specialist field.

[Aurora Australis]

Seasons ago I recall saying the then NT points record would never be beaten.  Well, for the second year running that's been proven to be an inaccurate prediction. With seven of the cyclists aged 27 or 28, it's possible we can beat it in the next couple of seasons, even if it turns out to be Kirk Workman's last NT race.

Race 4 : 1330 Points 

Results:
2nd   Tod Henderson      0: 00"   250 points
4th   Bud Mount         0: 02"   200 points
5th   Kirk Workman      0: 02"   180 points
6th   Kirk Clinton      0: 03"   160 points
7th   Christian Pocock      0: 03"   150 points
8th   Walt Judd         0: 04"   140 points
9th   Nobby Licuria      0: 04"   130 points
14th   Jason Duffy      0: 07"   80 points
17th   Julian Frances      0: 08"   40 points

[Aurora Australis]

With the promotion of 19-year-olds all but done for another season, let's see how the thirty-six current 19-year-olds compare with the best 20-year-old cyclist in each category.

TeaMetal is the big winner this season, with numerous hill-cobblers who should feature strongly in NTs to come, particularly if their talent is kind.  Like always there are a few potential climbers, although fewer than usual.  Hiller Sean Chapman is the other cyclist of interest, particularly with his aggression (let's just say don't make him angry).  Lion1984's sprinters have reasonable AV for 19-year-olds, however Sacido's 20-year-olds are the sprinters to have long-term.  The lack of TTers doesn't matter, because you know, Aussie TT hopefuls will be knocking on my door for the next two seasons.

Anyway, cyclist's AVs in attachment.

[Aurora Australis]

Race 5

Selections :
Sam Rooney   Agua_Verde   30 *
Marc Ashley   TeaMetal   27
Marc Huling   Turrones   27 (leader)
Brooklyn Abolins   Elgrand   26
Nick Thompson   TeaMetal   26
Dylan Lucas   Zatarra   25
Mannie Hines   Villavante   24
Neil Spiker   ChessPower   24 *

* weather bonus : also may be replaced if I go for more than 1 XP junior.  If zero juniors selected, then Bob Janson or Oliver Odom is the final pick.

Prospects: No prospects given, team leader TBD Marc Huling, will seek the best result possible (well duh).

Results:
9th   Dylan Lucas      0: 07"   130 points
13th   Neil Spiker         0: 21"   90 points
15th   Marc Huling      0: 21"   70 points
16th   Mannie Hines      0: 21"   60 points
18th   Sam Rooney      0: 28"   30 points

Most of the team decided to go on an Australian breakaway after the team leader slipped back with two other domestiques in section 2, which meant lots of Australians in the points, but of course no possible win.  We've extended our lead over all other NTs to 1205 points.

[ophiuko]

Incredible performance this season  . Only 400 points to beat the record of max points on a season, and still 2 races to go.

[Vos]

Indeed, with already 2.180 points after 5 races, there is a good chance that there will be a new record this season.

  TOP 10 ranking of most points per season : 

1. ( Aurora Australis ) season 7 with 2.570 points ( incl. 2.000 TT points ; this season had 2 flat TT races, won by Levin and Trump ).
2. ( Vos ) season 18 with 2.525 points.
3. season 14 with 2.325 points.
4. ( Aurora Australis ) season 19 with 2.155 points.
4. season 10 with 2.155 points.
6. season 13 with 2.140 points.
7. season 6 with 2.060 points.
8. season 4 with 2.045 points.
9. season 13, as number 2, with 2.005 points.
10. season 17 with 2.000 points.
10. season 12 with 2.000 points.

[Aurora Australis]

Race 6

Selections :
Martin Hunter   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team   32 * (free role)
Callum Walkins   RealMurciaCycling   30
Kendall Palmer   IntellinetCyclingFF   30 * (leader)
Andy Friend   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team   28
Donovan Baxter   AmericanChow   27
Elton Fevola   Sacido   25
Gary Sheehan   Antequera   25 *
Emerson Janson   ICSluj   23 *
* weather bonus

Garret Woods   LOSRAYOSDELARRY   22 is the final selection, slightly a hopeful encouragement selection as the cyclist is potentially the next NT climber captain if managed properly.

Prospects: Weather will help, but not expecting a podium.  Hoping that a few cyclists will end up in the points so we have a chance at the highest NT team score in a season (will need most of the points in this race), and also to extend the gap over second to more than 1330 points.

Results:
12th   Kendall Palmer      0: 37"   100 points
16th   Martin Hunter      0: 51"   60 points
19th   Emerson Janson      0: 57"   20 points

Tactics were wrong, and alternative tactics would have been as well.  No chance at victory, but did miss a potential top ten result or two.

[Vos]

Maybe I was too optimistic with " a good chance ", and it should be just " a chance ".
Because this FFFHM race might be very tricky as NT race, and before the race it is unpredictable what will happen.

But even if the last 2 NT races go bad or unlucky,
it seems to me that this season is already very succesful , and you have just " luxury goals " in the final 2 NT races. 
Unless another country surprises and scores an extreme big amount of points. Not likely, and according to me even impossible by now.

About luxury goals ;
Only Spain was 3 times NT world champion in a row ( seasons 4 + 5 + 6 ), and Australia can equal that this season.

And fun to mention the current ranking of most world championships ; Australia rules !  =

6x   s19 + s18 + s15 + s11 + s7 + s2
4x   s12 + s6 + s5 + s4
2x   s17 + s8
2x   s16 + s3
2x   s14 + s13
2x   s10 + s9
0x = all other countries

Good luck with world championship number 7 in this season 20, AA !

[Aurora Australis]

A good chance would be the correct assessment.  Depending on how our cobbler Keith Hunter has fared this season (haven't looked since the start of the season but he's been slowly going backwards since turning 24), we'll get 100-150 points in race 7.    That leaves near 300 points, which is three reasonable points scorers, or a 6th-8th finish plus a top 15.  It's realistic, particularly with the weather bonus (we have plenty of good cyclists for the race, just none perfect for it), and even if we're short, we always have a chance in race 7 to maybe score more.

Anyway, if anybody is considering an NT tilt, you're recommended to give it full consideration.  There's plenty of opportunities to score more points than this season, and with our team's solid backbone now across multiple disciplines, you can expect to be successful.