Australia s21

[horace_vr]

Speaking of the next race: How can it be that a 24 yo leads the Cobbled Hills ranking...? What skills does he have at 24 ?Talent 5, obviously, but... wth ?
Are we all the others racing for best-of-the-rest...? And will do so for the next 7 seasons...?

[Vos]

Ludovic Vetsch   ( SUI, 24, CobbleCrushers ) is 2nd behind the famous Phillip Spang ( DEN, 28, Codex ).

To comfort you, Horace, there are many different cobblehills races and therefore also different race GV's.
So, the CFF ranking is just a general indication and does not determine the favorites of a specific cobblehills race.
But no doubt, that they both are amazing.

And in the NT races ;
it is good that Vetsch and Spang do not have an Australian manager, otherwise for sure I would share your worries.
Now it is just a matter of tactically outsmart Switzerland and Denmark, no worries mate !

[horace_vr]

In Vos we trust 

[Vos]

Hahaha, thanks, but I meant all Australian managers,
for example Aurora_Australis proved many times as NT manager that he is capable of tactically outsmart the rivals.
And we have more tactical wizzards Down Under, for example Ophiuko, Zatarra, Horace, Franky, &Tourmalet, and so on. 
And for sure in the NT races, because no problem to get feedback of experienced Australian NT managers like me and AA.

[horace_vr]

My underlying question was actually how could a 24 yo have very similar skills with a 28-29-30...? I know training is slowed down after 23, but in all my training models you still get some skill increase starting with 24 yo. So how far is this guy going...?

[Vos]

So how far is this guy going...?

No limit, this guy is more than amazing.
A good indication is his 5th place as 23yo( ! ) in the NT cobblehills race of previous season, the same track as E3Harelbeke. Extreme impressive !

So, he is a real top cobblehills specialist,
and for example if the GV of the CFF ranking is for a pure cobblehills race, like the upcoming NT race C^C^C^C^C^ 150km,
it is not that Vetsch is high ranked because he has a relative low flat skill.
His NT result proves he is already a real top specialist ( like Spang ) for all classic cobblehills races, where flat for sure counts too.

And a smart CFF manager told me a long time ago that despite slow training,
 it is even possible for a specialist to train a total of almost 2 full GV points more ( that is a lot ! ) in the period from 24yo to 30yo.
Of course, high talent rating and perfect training are of influence to achieve this big increase.
edit =

Good point that you made AA.
Because it was about a flat-sprinter, that the smart manager refered to a long time ago.
A cobblehills cyclist needs to maintain(/try improve) more skills, so he will have much less increase from 24yo to 30yo than a flat-sprinter.

Vetsch must have looked already amazing on 31 March 2021, almost 9 months ago,
because back then he was sold for 44.444.444,- to a very experienced manager with a reputation of training toptalents perfectly.

[Aurora Australis]

My underlying question was actually how could a 24 yo have very similar skills with a 28-29-30...? I know training is slowed down after 23, but in all my training models you still get some skill increase starting with 24 yo. So how far is this guy going...?

In part it depends on how many skills a skillset utilises.  For some like TT-flat, which utilises four skills it's absolutely true that 30-31 is the absolute peak (just under GV +2 or so on skillset at age 30-31 to age 24).  For those skillsets that utilise 6 skills, talent 4 will barely maintain them at ages 24-30, and talent 5 gives +0.135 of one skill if all skills are 90+, or if one skill is 80-89 then +0.6055 of one skill in a season (or +1.077 of one skill if two skills are 80-89 : note assuming same training time between all skills).  It means very little difference between 24-30, and day 1 start with top starting stats will trump any tiny difference.

Note, of course those calculations are assuming that all skills in skillset are equal, which they're not.

[Vos]

Good point that you made AA.
Because it was about a flat-sprinter, that the smart manager refered to a long time ago.
A cobblehills cyclist needs to maintain(/try improve) more skills, so he will have much less increase from 24yo to 30yo than a flat-sprinter.

[Vos]

RACE 5 :  Teruel

8ºC

Teruel, 299km southwest of Barcelona, Spain,
At the moment Australia has 20 golden cobble-hills-specialists.

In this order ; Oliver Odom, Bob Janson and Sam Rooney were very close to be selected, according to my estimated GV (what could be wrong).
But my choices are the 9 cyclists below, and I'm still in doubt who to make the teamcaptain.
Because there is just 0,02 GV difference between Lucas ( active weather icon* ) and Huling ( much more experience ).
Also Thompson is very close in my estimated GV, just 0,18 below Lucas.

This seems to me a pretty strong selection, for a big part thanks to 5 cyclists of Australian managers ( 2x Zatarra and 3x TeaMetal ).
Merry Christmas everyone !

Australia NT selection :

Dylan Lucas* ( 26 ) Zatarra
Marc Huling ( 28 ) Turrones
Nick Thompson ( 27 ) TeaMetal
Liam Trautemberg ( 28 ) TeaMetal
Neil Spiker ( 25 ) ChessPower
Mannie Hines ( 25 ) Villavante
Marc Ashley ( 28 ) TeaMetal
Brooklyn Abolins ( 27 ) Elgrand
Ali Haber ( 26 ) Zatarra

[Vos]

7º  Dylan Lucas ( Zatarra )  0:10"  = teamcaptain
12º  Marc Huling ( Turrones )  0:25"  = free role
Unfortunately 3 helpers were in s4 on 0:07" behind the isolated Lucas, who was in the s4 front group of just 10 cyclists.
Only Switzerland had teammates in the s4 front group, and they scored the most points ( incl. victory of the 24yo Ludovic Vetsch ).

Australia is 3rd in the total points ranking of this race.
Switzerland moves up to the 2nd place in the season ranking, but no worries, they are 1.035 points behind Australia.

Next week a hills-climb race in the French Alps.

[Aurora Australis]

Hey, you got the teammates to stick with the leader for 2 more sections than I did last season.

[Vos]

RACE 6 :  the Vaujany climb


26ºC

La Ravoire, southeast France,
This hillsclimb race can be a challenge, and the wind might make it even more tactically interesting.
Let's hope that the Australian teamcaptain can make it into the s4 front group, with at least one helper.
Then, at 6.4 kilometers before the finishline, the Vaujany climb will be decisive with an average of 6½ %.
But this climb is a perfect example of irregularity, so, the average does not tell much, it has steep parts of 12½ %.

Happy new year everyone !

Australia NT selection :

Martin Hunter ( 33 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Kendall Palmer ( 31 ) IntellinetCyclingFF
Andy Friend* ( 29 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Emerson Janson ( 24 ) ICSluj
Walter Muller ( 25 ) Villavante
David Steele ( 27 ) Frier_Accounting    ( debut )
Elton Fevola* ( 26 ) Bikeos
Vinnie Butcher ( 24 ) IKIBASQUE    ( debut )
Callum Walkins ( 31 ) RealMurciaCycling

[Vos]

7º  Martin Hunter ( Manicomicos_Cycling_Team )
Not a successful race because the Australian teamcaptain was not in the s4 front group of 30 cyclists, but in the 2nd group on 0:20"
Despite this, a decent result with 150 points.
The "rival countries" did not score many points too, so, it seems that the world championship is already secured now.

A little bit as expected ; not a real top result in this race, ánd the free role cyclists were not good enough to score a few extra points.
Too bad, because I hoped that this s21 could have been a record breaking season of total points.
But still 270 points behind record season 7 that had 2 flat time trials.

These 270 points seem way too much, because only the teamcaptain of next week is good enough to score points.
And that is Keith Hunter, who never won a NT race, and dropped a lot in the CFF ranking in the past 2 seasons.
In previous season he even finished as 16º, what is just 60 points.
So, it will be a mission impossible to break the record,
because ór Hunter has to win ( 300 points ), ór he has to finish 2º + a free role cyclist on place 18º ( 250 + 30 points ).

Next week the final NT race, a flat cobble race in central Italy.
All 6 Australian golden flat-cobble-specialists are already selected. The last 3 places will be for young talents.

[Vos]

RACE 7 :  cobblestones in Frosinone


6ºC

Giffoni Valle Piana, 63km southeast of Naples, Italy,
Very bad weather for this victory parade to celebrate the world championship.
It will be the 4th WC title in a row ; Australia rules !

In this season just 2 young talents had each one NT selection ;
sprinter Horace Stamer ( 21, Sacido ), and a debut for cobblehills-specialist Norman Pocock ( 22, LOSRAYOSDELARRY ).
Just 2, because nowadays Australia is good in every kind of race, ánd because we are always competing for the world championship.
In this flat cobble race all 6 golden specialists are selected, so, it gives an opportunity to select 3 young talents.
For sure Stamer and Pocock were in the picture for another NT selection, but I decided to chose for other promising talents ;

I expect that climbers Garret Mitchum and Stu Vaughn will be much better than all current good ranked, young Australian pure climbers,
including the 23yo Garret Woods who will be Australia's highest ranked pure climber soon ( at the moment the nr 27 pure climb in CFF ).
But according to me Mitchum ( pure climb ) and Vaughn ( climb + 1 or more flat sections in it ) will be the future teamcaptains.
Also selected ; the promising 20yo hills specialist Chapman, who makes his debut for Australia.
Hopefully these 3 talents like to drink the champagne ( added with some unavoidable rainwater ) in this final NT race of season 21.

Australia NT selection :

Keith Hunter ( 31 ) RealMurciaCycling
Dave Taylor ( 27 ) Bikeos
Peter Boit* ( 31 ) Combuijs
Sean Jameson** ( 31 ) CC_Porco_Jones
Vince Whisman ( 30 ) Luka_Warriors
Donald Odom* ( 27 ) CajaRuralZamora
- - - - -
Garret Mitchum ( 22 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Stu Vaughn ( 21 ) JGMTeam
Sean Chapman ( 20 ) Quickstepbronx    ( debut )

[Vos]

1º  Keith Hunter ( Australia, 31, RealMurciaCycling ) cheers of joy because of his first NT victory.

Unfortunately no individual world championship to Keith Hunter.
Because the Norwegian NT manager was way too smart
by giving NT climb race winner Mikalsen several extra selections this season, to secure the WC jersey.
Keith Hunter has just one NT race less than climb legend Mikalsen.
But then again, I never expected that Keith Hunter could win this NT race.

And on top of this amazing cobblestones victory ;



In a new total points record and for the 4th time in a row ;
Australia = world champion !