Australia s22

[Vos]

RACE 4 :  TT Rhône-valley

25ºC

Villié-Morgon, eastern France,
We're back in the same region where we started this season.
NT race 1 was very unlucky, so this is a good opportunity to get revanche in this area.
And as in almost all previous NT seasons, also now the expectations are sky-high in the flat time trial.

Australia NT selection :

Bud Mount ( 30 ) ChronoTony
Tod Henderson ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Nobby Licuria ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Christian Pocock ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Kirk Clinton ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Walt Judd ( 30 ) Matterhorn
Jason Duffy ( 30 ) Shiro_Lions
Markus Benett ( 29 ) QuintoYtapa
Jonny Alfier ( 25 ) Aurora_Australis

Maybe fun to mention who were close to be selected, because the 2nd team of Australia is amazing too.

My selection procedure is not just based on my own GV estimation of this specific windy TT race of 53km, but this has influence too ;
slightly different GV estimations + Aus.evaluator GV + CFF flat-TT ranking + experience + stamina + active weather icons(=*).

About the "teamcaptain" of the 2nd team, Julian Frances ( 32 ),  he even finished as 8º in the NT time trial of previous season.
Instead of selecting him, I rather gamble on the little bit better GV of Benett and the extreme high stamina of Alfier.
But Frances is more experienced than Benett and Alfier, so it is questionable if my gamble will be right.

And there were more selection dilemma's, for example an active weather icon has a big impact,
but none of the 4 Australians with an active weather icon made it into the first team.
Although Cann and Trautemberg were very close to be selected. Unfortunately, I could select just 9.

In bold, the cyclists who I think should be able to score points / finish top 20.
But it would not surprise me if the 34yo Workman* ( 10º previous season ) is still good enough thanks to his xp and active weather icon.
The not so experienced 24yo Johnston* has an extreme high CFF ranking, to CFF he is even the 6th best Australian,
but according to me, his stamina is too low for this windy time trial of 53km.

Although, who knows, all cyclists of this 2nd team might score points if they have a lucky day.
But of course, there are a lot of amazing foreign TT specialists too, so my estimation of 13 Australians in bold, can be too positive.

Australia, 2nd team ;

10. Julian Frances ( 32 ) Bergtoppers
11. Patrick Cann* ( 28 ) Periquitos
12. Eric Armstrong ( 25 ) Aurora_Australis
13. Alex Trautemberg* ( 24 ) Aurora_Australis
14. Kirk Workman* ( 34 ) Aurora_Australis
15. Gilbert Johnston* ( 24 ) catapunchimpon
16. Paul Williams ( 30 ) Gloucester
17. Colin Friend ( 30 ) TeamSerfin
18. Lenny Taylor ( 24 ) Aurora_Australis

I can even make a 3rd Australian team, because these cyclists are very close in GV (of this windy TT 53km) to the 2nd team ;
Billy Janson ( 24, Aurora_Australis ), John Friess ( 29, PORTUGAL2011 ), Andy Duffy ( 30, Bikeos ), Bob Iverson ( 24, catapunchimpon ).
And no problem to select 5 more good cyclists, because Australia has 28 golden flat-TT specialists.

At the moment there are 101 flat-TT specialists in the golden CFF ranking :
( nrs 1 to 20 are mentioned too if they are not Australian, and the 23yo's are mentioned )

  28
  8  --> incl. nrs 2 + 9  --> incl. 23yo= nr 32
  5  --> incl. nrs 3 + 11 + 16  --> incl. 23yo= nr 87
  1  --> = nr 8
  11  --> incl. nrs 13 + 14 + 17  --> incl. 23yo= nr 100
  9  --> incl. nr 19
  4  --> incl. 23yo= nr 33
  9  --> incl. 23yo= nr 99
  2
  3
  2
  5  --> incl. 2x 23yo= nrs 51 + 98
  9
  1  --> = 23yo= nr 58
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0

Not included, the 12 golden hills-TT-specialists in the CFF ranking.
Maybe a few of them are golden flat-TT-specialists too.
The just one Australian golden hills-TT-specialist has for sure no golden flat-TT icon.

[Vos]

1    Ruben Lutz      30   0: 00"   300      ChronoTony
2    Kirk Clinton      29   0: 02"   250      Aurora_Australis
3    Walt Judd      30   0: 04"   225      Matterhorn
4    Tod Henderson      29   0: 06"   200      Aurora_Australis
5    Bud Mount      30   0: 08"   180      ChronoTony
6    Christian Pocock      29   0: 08"   160      Aurora_Australis
7    Vladimir Pfister      30   0: 09"   150      ChronoTony
8    Albano Andre      24   0: 09"   140      catapunchimpon
9    Ian Mikkelson      33   0: 10"   130      Plopsala
10    Tijn Landzaat      30   0: 10"   120      ChronoTony
11    Nurettin Ballack      28   0: 10"   110      PDM_cycling_team
12    Nobby Licuria      29   0: 10"   100      Aurora_Australis
13    Ernesto Jorge      28   0: 11"   90      PDM_cycling_team
14    Walter Coburn      30   0: 12"   80      ChronoTony
15    John Straathof      28   0: 13"   70      Flyvende_hjul
16    Georges Delorme      30   0: 14"   60      ChronoTony
17    Alwin Neeskens      30   0: 14"   40      ChronoTony
18    Jonny Alfier      25   0: 14"   30      Aurora_Australis
19    Markus Benett      29   0: 16"   20      QuintoYtapa  --> mechanical breakdown in s2
20    Jason Duffy      30   0: 17"   10      Shiro_Lions  --> flat tire in s2

Again no victory.
Nobby Licuria had an unlucky day, in previous season 21 he was 2º on 0:00"
Now 12º on 0:10" in the same as the nr 9º.
Also Alfier was not happy that he finished as 18º in the same time as the nr 16º.
And it is clear that Benett and Duffy ( 11º on 0:05" in s21 )  had bad luck.

Australia scored 125 points less than in previous season.
But finishing nrs 2 to 6 is very good, and the total of 1175 points in just one race, that is not bad at all.

As expected, Australia is the new leader.
Germany did very well in this time trial ( 560 points ), and they moved up to the 2nd place.

TOP10 season ranking after 4 races =

1.      1.700
2.      1.010
3.      950
4.      810
5.      640
6.      550
7.      535     
8.      505
9.      450
10.    420

Next week a cold cobblehills race in Aragon, Spain.

[Kekipi]

But finishing nrs 2 to 6 is very good, and the total of 1175 points in just one race, that is not bad at all.

It's awesome.  For some perspective, the USA's best ever finish points-wise for a season is 1165 (in S20).

Giving some thought to changing my rider training regimen to TTers for the good old ; otherwise, the Aussies will continue to clean our clocks in the (many!) seasons to come.

[Vos]

Australia u20 ( 37 cyclists ) :


For the last time this season the u20 lists.
I cannot say who will be future internationals, because talent rating and how a talent will be trained, are both of big influence.
But it is clear that there are a few good, promising talents in a few specialities.
And also obvious that there are a few specialities without talents, in particular hills and sprint.

[Vos]

RACE 5 :  Teruel

9ºC

Teruel, Aragón, Spain,
This is the exact same cobblehills race as in previous NT season, even the weather* is the same.
Back then good results ; 7º and 12º.
Hopefully again such a nice amount of points, with the exact same Australian selection.

Australia NT selection :

Dylan Lucas* ( 27 ) Zatarra
Nick Thompson ( 28 ) TeaMetal
Marc Huling ( 29 ) Turrones
Mannie Hines ( 26 ) Villavante
Marc Ashley ( 29 ) TeaMetal
Liam Trautemberg ( 29 ) TeaMetal
Neil Spiker ( 26 ) CaptainOrange
Brooklyn Abolins ( 28 ) Elgrand
Ali Haber ( 27 ) Zatarra

[Vos]

8º  Dylan Lucas ( 27, Zatarra ).

Almost the same result as in previous season ( = 7º ).
Unfortunately this time not a free role cyclist in the points, and that is the main reason of scoring 110 points less as in season 21.
But the good news is that the direct rivals ( GER, NL, POR ) scored less points than Australia.

TOP10 season ranking after 5 races =

1.      1.840
2.      1.080
3.      1.080
4.      850
5.      835
6.      800
7.      790
8.      710
9.      565
10.    555

Next week we go to Australia !

[B.E-L]

Congratz with the 5th in a row world championship. There is no country that will gain 800 points or more in just two races.

[Vos]

True, it is looking good at the moment with a big lead of 760 points.
But according to me, it is premature for congratulations.

The upcoming NT race 6 MHHHH is hard to predict, and it could be that a country scores many points.
For example 4 cyclists from Ukraine finished top 10 ( incl. 2º + 3º ) in this TDU stage of season 21.
A NT race victory + 3 other cyclists also in the points, let's say 5º + 10º + 12º is already 700 points in just one race.

And NT race 7 is the exact same flat-cobble race as in previous season.
Back then the Netherlands had 5 cyclists in the points ; 7º + 9º + 11º + 12º + 13º = 580 points in NT race 7.
You have the nr1 ( Aerts ) + nr3 ( Heijmans ) of the flat-cobble ranking, so, it is possible to score more points.

If you score more points in race 6 with the Netherlands, than Australia might score, then the Dutch are for sure still a rival.
Good luck, B.E-L, but not too much good luck  , otherwise your appreciated congratulations will be invalid / unjustified.

[B.E-L]

Thnx! We will see if it’s premature or not     Good luck to you too!

[Vos]

Thanks ! 

[Vos]

RACE 6 :  Stirling

30ºC

Unley, an inner-southern suburb of Adelaide, South Australia,
At the moment a very good gap of 760 points towards the nrs 2 & 3 ( GER & NL ), but the world championship is not decided yet.
Every point is welcome. And although this is a difficult tactical race, I expect that the Aussies are extra motivated to ride Down Under.

Australia NT selection :

Walter Muller ( 26 ) Villavante
Andy Friend ( 30 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Emerson Janson* ( 25 ) ICSluj
Martin Hunter* ( 34 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Vinnie Butcher ( 25 ) HTCHungria
Colin Ashley ( 30 ) lottótotó     ( debut )
Marcus Glass ( 30 ) PMX
Kane Harper ( 30 ) Speedbird
Ian Emerton ( 23 ) FrançaiseDesJeux    ( debut )

[Vos]

5º  Walter Muller ( 26, Villavante ) on 0:00"
18º Martin Hunter* ( 34, Manicomicos_Cycling_Team ) in a free role on 0:23"

A very good race , thanks to Emerson Janson* ( 25, ICSluj ) who was the crucial s4 helper. He finished as 21º, just outside the points.
I had high hopes of Andy Friend ( 30, Manicomicos_Cycling_Team ) to score some extra points.
But his free role tactic was too risky in s2 and that early drop caused that he finished as 37º
Then again ; good old Martin Hunter surprised me by scoring a few points ; his free role tactic was excellent ánd he profited of his sun* icon.

A good amount of points in this race ; Australia is 5º in the points-ranking of this race 6 with 210 points.
Germany ( 160 ) scored 50 points less, and the Netherlands ( 250 ) scored 40 points more.
Both countries are still on the podium.
The top 3 countries of this race 6 ( DEN 460, POR 370, ITA 325 ) came closer in points, but just like Germany, they are no rivals anymore.

Only the Netherlands can still be a rival to the 5th Australian world championship in a row.
They are capable of riding an amazing cobble race 7 and only the Australian teamcaptain can score points.
But the odds are in favor of Australia due to the current big gap of 720 points, what in normal circumstances should be good enough.
Only a lucky super race of NL + an unlucky race of AUS, might give a scenario that NL will be the surprising world champion.

TOP10 season ranking after 6 races =

1.      2.050
2.      1.330
3.      1.240
4.      1.220
5.      930
6.      920
7.      890
8.      835
9.      715
10.    710

Next week the final flat-cobble race in Spain.

[Vos]

RACE 7 :  province Ciudad Real

18ºC

Ciudad Real, Spain,
Australia is going full power in this final race 7.
Therefore all 6 golden flat-cobble specialists are selected, added with the best (9 stars) silver cobble cyclist.
The last places are for 2 young top climbers to gain extra experience.

Keith Hunter dropped to place 26 in the golden flat-cobble ranking, even Dave Taylor is higher ranked on place 24.
But again Hunter gets the teamcaptain role due to his max. experience compared to the 71 xp of Taylor.
For sure both have not a top ranking, and the 3rd best Australian is even on place 59 in the golden flat-cobble ranking,
what makes that many countries are much better in this speciality.

But I expect that it is possible to score points, due to the teamcaptain bonus, good tactics and good support of the helpers.
And those points are needed if the only rival NL has a super race with the nrs 1 + 3 of the golden flat-cobble ranking.
Although, GB is also amazing on the cobblestones, and a few other countries will score enough points too.
And it is beneficial to Australia if the points are divided among some countries, then the current big gap of 720 points is already enough.

Australia NT selection :

Keith Hunter (32 ) RealMurciaCycling
Dave Taylor ( 28 ) Bikeos
Vince Whisman ( 31 ) Barrioska
Peter Boit ( 32 ) aljarafecycling
Sean Jameson ( 32 ) PedaleSanvitese
Donald Odom ( 28 ) CajaRuralZamora
Clyde Mayne ( 28 ) Galletto
Garret Mitchum ( 23 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Stu Vaughn ( 22 ) JGMTeam

[B.E-L]

Congratz with the 5th in a row world championship.

[Vos]

Congratz with the 5th in a row world championship.

Thanks 
You too congrats with a points-rich last race ( 725 ),
ánd with the silver 2nd place in the season ranking with an excellent total points of 2.055, what is very high for a number 2.