Author Topic: Australia s30  (Read 1901 times)

Vos

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Australia s30
« on: February 10, 2023, 01:21:57 PM »

A new NT season starts !  :)

NT season 30 ; the "Downfall" of Australia.

According to me it is the end of an extreme successful era, because it seems unrealistic to expect another Australian WC title.
The current Australian quality level is not high enough and this NT season schedule is not favorable, mainly due to the hills-climb race.
It even could be possible that a podiumplace is not achievable this season.

But then again, if all Australian tactics go right, and if rival countries make big mistakes, and/or if the points are very divided ;
who knows what might be possible, perhaps there will be a world champion with a relative low amount of points.
Only then Australia has still a chance to battle for the WC title. But the ( already optimistic ) season goal = a podium place.

I added stars in the NT races, to show "my expectations" of that race.
The stars rating is from zero ( = too bad ) to max. five ( = excellent ) stars, and I added a "subjective explanation" text.
It could be that "my expectations" are way too positive or way too negative, we will see what happens.
But one thing is certain ; Australia really has to battle for a good result in the season ranking.
What that result will be in the end, I have no clue.
But I expect that this NT season will be the end of an extreme successful era, and that another nation will be the world champion.


season 30 schedule =

1.   Baar  HHHHH  118 km

Australia does not have high ranked hills specialists,
but maybe the surprising new 1A world champion Derek Jons ( nr 42 in the ranking ) can get an unexpected good result.


2.   Duitama  MMMMM  265 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐
In previous season the Australian teamcaptain finished as 7th on 0:31" in this exact same race.
This could ánd should be much better, and I expect that he can ride at least podium if the tactics go very well.
Australia is good in the mountains, and hopefully a few extra points of others, just like in previous season ( extra 130 points ).
Despite this, no 5-stars-rating, because at least one other nation will score more total points, and most likely a victory is not possible.


3.   Montreux  FFFFF  131 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Australia has a top contender with excellent support, in previous season he finished as 2nd.
But no 5-stars-rating, because Australia was 3rd in the day-ranking of total points,
ánd because in a NT sprint race anything can happen, including a disaster race with zero points for a favorite.


4.   Breda  TT-FFFFF  36 km
⭐⭐⭐
Perhaps 3 stars is even too high as expectation, because I expect way less points as in previous season ( = 845 points ).
Hopefully the old TT specialists are still good enough to score a decent amount of points.
If not, we depend on the few below 30yo TT specialists, who finished mostly just outside the points in previous seasons.


5.   Vlaanderen  FCHC^H 256 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thé new speciality of Australia ( instead of TT ), because we have a bunch of young and amazing cobblehills specialists.
Unfortunately there are a few foreign rivals who are ( much ) better, and therefore no 5-stars-rating.
But right now it's difficult what to expect, because RVV has a different race GV as the standard cobblehills GV.
It is certainly possible that Australia will be the best scoring nation in future NT cobblehills races, but most likely not yet this season.


6.   Andorra  MDHHM  187 km

There are just 4 Australians with a golden climbhills icon in the CFF-climb-ranking ( = nrs 103, 256, 302, 316 ).
The "best" one is not really suited for this specific race where a very high climb skill for sure makes a difference.
It could be 0 points, but still an optimistic one star because I like to think that top20 is possible due to good tactics & teamcaptain bonus.


7.   Breskens  CFCCC  190 km
⭐⭐
Currently we have the nr 7 flat-cobble specialist of CFF, who finished 5th in the CFFCC race of previous season.
Hopefully he can achieve such a good result again.
Only a 2-stars-rating, because on flat-cobble, it is possible that some rival nations make a big points difference towards Australia.



« Last Edit: February 10, 2023, 01:30:14 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2023, 03:43:52 PM »
RACE 1 : SWISS HILLS

3ºC

Baar, Switzerland,
This exact same race was also in s27 and s28, both times James Bush was the teamcaptain.
To my surprise he won ( as not-favorite ) in s27 at 31yo, and in s28 a very good 7th place at 32yo.
Now he is already 34yo, and maybe still good thanks to his active weather icon*.
But the teamcaptain role is for the new surprising 1A world champion, Derek Jons.
Hopefully the rainbow jersey gives him extra motivation, so he can get an unexpected good result despite his not high nr 42 ranking.

Australia NT selection :

Derek Jons ( 28 ) RHyNeStOnEs
James Bush* ( 34 ) Kelme4ever
Rob Mitchell* ( 32 ) Speedbird
Paddy Friend ( 33 ) KunTeam
Callum Carpenter ( 30 ) TeaMetal
Virgil Seaman ( 25 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
Andrew Morse ( 26 ) Plopsala
Emerson Brown* ( 24 ) Atlanterhavet
Rick Cann ( 27 ) Wizards
« Last Edit: February 12, 2023, 12:42:14 PM by Vos »

horace_vr

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2023, 06:58:11 PM »
Well, good luck!

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2023, 12:25:40 PM »
Thanks, I can for sure use some luck this NT season.  :)

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2023, 10:01:49 AM »
8    Derek Jons      28   0: 11"   140      RHyNeStOnEs
15    James Bush      34   0: 26"   70      Kelme4ever
16    Rob Mitchell      32   0: 26"   60      Speedbird

Way more points as I expected. In fact, Australia ( 270 ) on a split 2nd place with the Netherlands ( 270 ) in the day ranking.
Only Latvia ( 300 ) scored more points because of the race victory.

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2023, 12:00:38 PM »


Australia u24 ( 130 cyclists ) :


CFF u23 Dream Team =
time trial
3.  Edward Garza  ( 22, Teamclaes )
5.  Dean Butcher  ( 22, Teamclaes )
sprint
4.  Pete Odom  ( 22, Cabrasverdes )
10. Virgil Kelly  ( 22, ChessPower )
cobble
6.  Alex Caan  ( 22, Cabrasverdes )

Just 5 Aussies in the u23 DT, but at least one more as in the 2 previous seasons.
Everyone good luck with recruiting and scouting in Australia ! =  8)

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2023, 10:31:33 AM »
I notice that all of the now 27-28 year old TTers that I sold 3+ seasons ago have literally gone backwards despite their 4 & 5 talent ratings.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2023, 08:55:34 PM by Aurora Australis »

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2023, 10:32:14 AM »


Australia u22 ( 79 cyclists ) :

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2023, 11:53:02 AM »
RACE 2 : COLOMBIAN CLIMBS

11ºC

Duitama, Colombia ;
Today the last 2 are selected, and this is the exact same selection as on new year's day when this race was also on the NT calendar.
Back then teamcaptain Cann finished as 7th on 0:31" in a not good tactical, chaotic race.
Hopefully a much better result tomorrow, because he should be able to finish on the podium, if the tactics go very well.
Most likely Cann is not yet experienced enough to beat thé top favorite, Moser ( 31, ITA ), who won this race solo in previous season.

Australia NT selection :

Rick Cann ( 27 ) Atlanterhavet
Garret Mitchum ( 31 ) bikeandwine
Stu Vaughn ( 30 ) ProdopingPong
Barry Carpenter ( 32 ) Kelme4ever
Allan Sheehan ( 27 ) Stuttgarter
Garret Woods ( 32 ) FlyEaglesFly
Rick Pierre ( 27 ) Astanadena 
Ken Holland ( 27 ) Milestone
Kenneth Glass ( 31 ) gsumar_team

horace_vr

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2023, 08:57:12 PM »
Here is another prospect for the future of Australia NT:

Sam Clickett   Age : 19   Wage : 317
Stamina : 19   Sprint : 20   Climbing : 24
Flat : 22   Cobblestone : 12   Technique : 27
Downhill : 7   Hills : 15   Aggressiveness : 5
Time Trial : 50   Teamwork : 10   Experience : 0
Price :   Days left :   Stages raced : 0

I all honesty, I thought a pull like this was just theoretical...

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2023, 10:15:01 AM »
Are you sure about the age of Sam Clickett ? Perhaps you recruited a 18yo or even a 17yo.  :))

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2023, 09:50:33 PM »
1    Rick Cann      27   0: 00"   300      Atlanterhavet
2    Amauri Moser      31   0: 06"   250      LottoGranadier
3    Veiko Luts      32   0: 09"   225      LottoGranadier
4    Victoriano Agudo      31   0: 27"   200      Innioraths
5    Gor Karatupov      30   0: 36"   180      PDM_cycling_team
- - - - - - - - - -
14    Garret Mitchum      31   1: 09"   80      bikeandwine
17    Barry Carpenter      32   1: 16"   40      Kelme4ever
18    Stu Vaughn      30   1: 18"   30      ProdopingPong

A tactical superb race !  8)
All Australians were helpers of teamcaptain Cann.

s1 = Peleton of 56, incl. all 9 Australians.  :)
s2 = Australian attack ! What resulted in a break away group of 16 where 50% ( = 8 ) was Australian.  :)
s3 = Let's keep up the Australian high pace ! Now a first group of just 7, incl. 4 Australians.  :)
s4 = Superb helper's job of Mitchum, only Australia has a teamcaptain-helper combo in the 1st group of just 5.  :)
s5 = SOLO VICTORY !  8)  :)


Australia scored by far the most points ( = 450 ) in this brutal mountain race, and is now the new leader in the season ranking :

1.    720
2.    450
3.    410
4.    400
5.    335

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2023, 11:37:17 AM »


Australia u20 ( 26 cyclists ) :

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2023, 11:57:56 AM »
RACE 3 : SWISS SPRINT

26ºC

Montreux, Switzerland,
All just 4 golden flat sprinters are selected, added with the best silver sprinter for extra support.
Hopefully again such a top result ( = 2nd ) as in previous season.
Although, you never know in NT sprint races what will happen, there is always a possibility that the race goes horribly wrong.

Due to a lack of Australian sprinters, there is a lot of space to select xp cyclists ;
Pernom ( flat-cobble teamcaptain ) and Odom ( flat-sprinter in the u23 DT ) are maybe good enough to help in one or a few sections.
The promising, very young Stapleton ( climb ) gets already his debut, and super-toptalent Sifford ( cobblehills ) makes his 2nd NT appearance.

Australia NT selection :

Horace Stamer ( 30 ) TeamEuroscalt
Jasper Caan ( 33 ) SaulSalinasTeam
Adrian Janson ( 30 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Rob Blixter ( 30 ) RajenKujen
Luke Morse ( 30 ) FaustoScoppi
- - - - - - - - - -
Bob Pernom ( 26 ) TeamEuroscalt
Pete Odom ( 22 ) Cabrasverdes
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 21 ) Villavante
Seb Stapleton ( 19 ) Wizards     ( debut )
« Last Edit: February 26, 2023, 12:01:08 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2023, 10:56:48 PM »
Three seasons ago this exact same sprint race in Montreux ( also without wind ) went horribly wrong in section 3,
where the Australian top favorite suddenly dropped, with as consequence zero points.

So, I decided to ride in "very conservative" tactics now, what seemed to be "way too safe" tactics in how this sprint race went this time.
Result =
9º  Horace Stamer ( 30, TeamEuroscalt )   0:00"   

A dissapointing result due to the not strong 5 EP finish, and 8 countries scored more points ; 5 of them many more points.
But on the bright side :), these 130 points are enough to hold on to the lead in the season ranking :

1.    850
2.    675
3.    550
4.    545
5.    500