Australia s31

[Vos]

RACE 3 : DUTCH SPRINT

10ºC

Breda, the Netherlands,
All just 4 golden flat-sprinters are selected, and hopefully a much better result as in previous season (= 9º ) of teamcaptain Stamer.
Also selected ; a 23yo silver flat-sprinter for extra support, 2 TT-specialists for xp, and 2 young flat-sprinters make their NT-debut.

Australia NT selection :

Horace Stamer ( 31 ) TeamEuroscalt
Adrian Janson ( 31 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Rob Blixter* ( 31 ) RajenKujen
Jasper Caan ( 34 ) SaulSalinasTeam
Pete Odom ( 23 ) Cabrasverdes
- - - - - - - - - -
Dan Gayford ( 20 ) RHyNeStOnEs     ( debut )
Denis Lenoa ( 22 ) OSLB     ( debut )
Sammy Alfier ( 28 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Maurice Hunter ( 29 ) SPORTLIFE

[Vos]

On previous page the NT race 2 results :
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=834.msg31715#msg31715

ánd for the first time this season, the u20 lists :
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=834.msg31716#msg31716

[Vos]

Ups, it went wrong in s4 in this sprint race that went like this ; 110 - 105 - 103 - 28 - 13.

Helper Blixter anticipated on a fierce pace in s4, but unfortunately teamcaptain Stamer could not follow him.
Also free role Janson anticipated in his tactics on a s4 acceleration, but to my surprise it was not enough.

s5 = 18 cyclists dropped out of the s4 break away, and they were passed by a 3-man-attacking group out of the s4 2nd group.
Those were Stamer ( AUS ), and the 2 top favorites Iljin ( EST ) and Morel ( FRA ).
They caught the s5 break away group of 10 on the finishline, and therefore all 3 could not sprint for victory.

13    Horace Stamer      31   0: 00"   90      TeamEuroscalt
18    Rob Blixter      31   0: 21"   30      RajenKujen
20    Adrian Janson      31   0: 21"   10      LOSRAYOSDELARRY

A dissapointing result and even a worst result as the bad sprint race of previous season what had way too "conservative" tactics.
Certainly I'm not a fan of sprint races, because a gamble is needed somewhere to achieve a top result.
For example if I gamble on a s4 pace acceleration in the next season, then a quiet s4 and the break away was in s2 or s3.
Or it will be a quiet race in all flat sections, and then anticipating somewhere is a waste of energy.
Sprint races are unpredictable and anything can happen, what is again proven in this sprint race.

Remarkable ; All 9 Italians were in the s4 break away group of just 28, what caused that Italy scored the most points ( = 505 ).
Australia ( = 130 ) was just 9th in the race-ranking.
And no illusions / Australian ambition this season, because even if the sprint race would have went perfectly with a top result,
Australia is simply not good enough for the WC battle. This has everything to do with the 2 time trials this season,
for example current leader Italy has many top TT specialists, including 3 higher ranked Italians than the best Australian TT specialist.

Next week a long-distance flat time trial ( 88 km ) in and around Adelaide, Australia.
And it could be very well possible that Australia makes a big drop in the current season ranking ( = 3º, despite this bad sprint race ),
because only Sammy Alfier should be good enough to score points. The other Aussies need a lot of luck to make it maybe into the top 20.

[Vos]

Australia u20 ( 31 cyclists ) :

[Vos]

RACE 4 : DOWN UNDER TT
( applicable title, and not just because it means Australia, but also because it is possible that Australia will go "down under" in the season ranking after this time trial. )

13ºC

Adelaide, Australia,
This will be a historical event, because I expect by far the least points that Australia ever scored in a flat time trial.
All hope is on Sammy Alfier who should do very well in this long distance 88 km time trial on home soil.

The other Aussies need a lot of luck to ( even maybe ) finish in the top 20.
According to me there are just 2 who have a little chance to score points if they are lucky ; Hunter and Johnston*( due to weather* icon ).
But I could be wrong and maybe someone else surprises a lot by scoring a few points.
Therefore this selection will be full of TT specialists, and already 8 are selected.
The last ( most likely old ) one will be selected later, what depends on the decrease of some old TT specialists this week.
edit ; Today the last one is selected.

Australia NT selection :

Sammy Alfier ( 28 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Maurice Hunter ( 29 ) SPORTLIFE
Gilbert Johnston* ( 33 ) Facha_Bartolo
Rick Herd ( 28 ) SPORTLIFE
Oliver Churchil ( 32 ) Saldana
Steve Boit ( 28 ) Bergtoppers
Baron Ferdinand ( 28 ) Nibbixwoud     ( debut )
Pat Foley ( 29 ) bestiesnegres     ( debut )
Lenny Taylor ( 33 ) LanihuliCycling

[Vos]

11    Gilbert Johnston*      33   0: 09"   110      Facha_Bartolo
13    Sammy Alfier      28   0: 10"   90      Thorboassonarvesen
15    Steve Boit      28   0: 11"   70      Bergtoppers
16    Baron Ferdinand      28   0: 12"   60      Nibbixwoud
- - - - - - - - - -
21    Maurice Hunter      29   0: 13"   0      SPORTLIFE
38    Oliver Churchil      32   0: 19"   0      Saldana
39    Rick Herd      28   0: 20"   0      SPORTLIFE
44    Pat Foley      29   0: 21"   0      bestiesnegres
52    Lenny Taylor      33   0: 24"   0      LanihuliCycling

No mechanical breakdowns and flat tires, but as always, the luck factor played a big role.
Especially Boit his result seems to be very lucky, and most likely Johnston and Ferdinand were lucky too,
although it also could be explainded a bit by the weather* icon of Johnston and the excellent stamina of Ferdinand.
But some others had not much luck, for example Hunter finished 0:01" outside the points.
And it is clear to me that Sammy Alfier had a very unlucky race and even a complete off-day, because he should have done much better.

But the very BIG SURPRISE in this time trial =
despite this is by far the lowest amount of points ( 330 ) that Australia ever scored in a NT flat time trial,
Australia was even the best scoring nation in this TT ! 
Ok, barely, because TT-top-favorite ITA scored 310 points, and USA( 300 ) and NED( 280 ) were also close in being the best scoring nation.

Anyway, the by me expected big drop in the season ranking did not happen, and in fact, Australia even moved up to the 2nd place. 
Still a big gap of 295 points towards leader Italy, but it seems ( almost certainly ) possible to battle for a podiumplace this season.
Next week a cobblehills race in Belgium, where the Australian expectations should be high.

[Vos]

( In English ) To unexperienced managers ;
Almost everyone stops with recruiting/scouting before halfway the Giro d'Italia.
The reason = 19yo's who enter the game so late in the season, have a too big training gap compared to 19yo's who were pulled earlier.
The next few days it is still possible to recruit/scout a 19yo who will be good enough, but this is rare and you have to be very lucky.
Continuing with scouting/recruiting after the Giro d'Italia is a waste of money.

( In Spanish ) A los gerentes sin experiencia ;
Casi todo el mundo se detiene con el reclutamiento/exploración antes de la mitad del Giro d'Italia.
La razón = los de 19 años que ingresan al juego tan tarde en la temporada tienen una brecha de entrenamiento demasiado grande en comparación con los de 19 años que fueron retirados antes.
En los próximos días todavía es posible reclutar/explorar a un chico de 19 años que sea lo suficientemente bueno, pero esto es raro y hay que tener mucha suerte.
Continuar con la exploración/reclutamiento después del Giro d'Italia es una pérdida de dinero.



Australia u20 ( 33 cyclists ) :

[Vos]

RACE 5 :  HARELBEKE

34ºC

Harelbeke, Belgium,
At the moment Australia has 21 golden cobble-hills-specialists, including 2x golden 23yo's ( 4x foreign 23yo's are higher ranked ).
So, there is a lot to choose from , and already 6 are selected.
The last 3 will be selected later this week, although 2 of them are also logical & obvious choices and almost 100% sure of a selection.
It is not certain yet who the teamcaptain will be in this E3 Harelbeke with a high expectation of a top 5 result or better.

edit ; Today the last 3 are selected. With the note that many other cobblehills-specialists were very close to be selected.

Australia NT selection :

Colin Ronnald ( 25 ) MortoviaCycling
Alex Ablett* ( 30 ) Aspigarri
Emerson Brown ( 25 ) Agua_Verde
Andrew Morse ( 27 ) FrançaiseDesJeux
James Crickton ( 26 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
Bruce Hunter ( 25 ) QuintoYtapa
Kenneth Jackson ( 30 ) Astanadena
Elgin Henderson ( 30 ) Budvarka
Tony Glass ( 25 ) LaPlagaTeam

[Vos]

7    Colin Ronnald      25   0: 03"   150      MortoviaCycling
18    Alex Ablett      30   0: 20"   30      Aspigarri

Despite the excellent help of Brown, certainly not a good result of teamcaptain Ronnald who did finish with full power.
Probably caused by that I did not expect such enormous front groups in s1 ánd in particular in s2.
This race went like this : 119 - 109 - 49 - 7 - 3 , and clear that in hinside a slightly other dividing of EP's was needed, especially in s2.
Remarkable, and I will not be surprised if in a next season this same race has a section 2 that is way more decisive / much harder pace.

7th is a bit dissapointing. And the 2 free roles had also a bit of a "wrong" use of energy and both dissapointed too :
Ablett scored only a few points, and Morse won the sprint of a very big group but finished just outside the points with a 22nd place.

The biggest dissapointment is that 5 nations scored more total points than Australia.
Including "theoretical rival" Italy and "rival" Estonia, both nations scored 20 points more in this cobblehills race.

It is looking almost 100% certain for this season's huge top favorite Italy that it will achieve it's very first World Championship.
Australia is still 2nd in the season ranking, but nr 3 Estonia has 2 higher ranked TT specialists ánd the best flat-cobble specialist of CFF.
So, I assume that Australia has to battle for bronze, what might be duable because of the nice current big gap towards the rest.
Personally nice to battle for bronze because that is still missing on my NT palmares ; total of 13x NT manager = 11x gold and 2x silver.
Also a chance that a 3rd podiumplace is not possible, for example the Netherlands can be a very fierce rival despite the current gap.

TOP 10 season ranking, with 2 more races to go ( including the maybe "terrifying" time trial of next week ) :

1    1.425
2    1.110
3    1.020
4      860
5      840
6      825
7      710
8      700
9      645
10    630

[Vos]

RACE 6 :  QATAR TIME TRIAL

34ºC

Doha, Qatar,
In nearly all previous NT seasons Australia dominated in the time trial, for almost 100% thanks to Aurora_Australis.
But times have changed, and in this season 31 it really is a bummer that there are 2 flat time trials.
Hopefully a lucky race, especially from "Australian hope" Sammy Alfier, so that it is still possible to battle for bronze after this NT race 6.
Because a bronze 3rd podiumplace in the final season ranking, seems ( currently / for now ) the max.achievable.

Today the last 3 cyclists are selected ;
2 of them are way too low ranked, too old TT specialists, but a desperate gamble due to their active weather* icons ( & max.xp ).
The other one is a big gamble too, because only in an extreme lucky race a few surprising points might be possible.
That choice was between Foley and Ferdinand. Just on gut-feeling I gamble on Ferdinand, more xp and very lucky in previous time trial.

The NT selection is in order of the CFF ranking, and not according to my "own ranking" what I ussualy post.
It does not matter anyway now, because all hope is on Sammy Alfier. The others need a ( very ) lucky race to score surprising points.
Below the second dot-line, an extreme lucky race is needed.

Australia NT selection :

Sammy Alfier ( 28 ) Thorboassonarvesen
- - - - - - - - - -
Rick Herd ( 28 ) SPORTLIFE
Steve Boit ( 28 ) Bergtoppers
Maurice Hunter ( 29 ) SPORTLIFE
Gilbert Johnston* ( 33 ) Facha_Bartolo
- - - - - - - - - -
Edward Garza* ( 23 ) Teamclaes
Baron Ferdinand ( 28 ) Nibbixwoud
Jonny Alfier* ( 34 ) PedaleSanvitese
Bob Iverson* ( 33 ) PedaleSanvitese

[Vos]

9    Sammy Alfier      28   0: 12"   130      Thorboassonarvesen
20    Rick Herd      28   0: 16"   10      SPORTLIFE
- - - - - - - - - -
32    Edward Garza      23   0: 20"   0      Teamclaes
33    Gilbert Johnston      33   0: 20"   0      Facha_Bartolo
34    Baron Ferdinand      28   0: 20"   0      Nibbixwoud
40    Maurice Hunter      29   0: 21"   0      SPORTLIFE
47    Steve Boit      28   0: 22"   0      Bergtoppers
49    Bob Iverson      33   0: 23"   0      PedaleSanvitese
73    Jonny Alfier      34   0: 30"   0      PedaleSanvitese

Well, I guess I should be happy with these Australian results ;
9th is not bad of Sammy Alfier, and one other Australian had a lucky race and finished as 20th.
What gives a total of 140 points.
Certainly by far a low record of Australia in a flat time trial. But I expected something like this.

Also leader Italy did what was expected, and scored by far the most points ( 525 ).
But it seems to me that there are many remarkable, surprising results in this time trial.
What seems beneficial to Australia ;
for example Estonia scored just 150 points, and the Netherlands seemed even more unlucky with just 110 points.
USA ( 340 ) and France ( 330 ) did great,
but both countries have no golden flat-cobble specialists, and therefore no threat for the podium battle.

It seems to me that it looks surprisingly well, that Australia can achieve a podiumplace(= 3rd ) this season.
Maybe only the Netherlands can still be a rival if they have a great race ánd if the Australian teamcaptain fails.
But I did not look thoroughly yet at the "NT race 7 situation".
I just know for now that the current season ranking looks promising :

TOP 10 season ranking :
1    1.950 
2    1.250
3    1.170
4    1.040
5      980
6      950
7      880
8      825
9      820
10    790

[Vos]

RACE 7 : FRENCH COBBLESTONES


13ºC

Roubaix, France,
One thing is already certain before NT race 7 = Congratulations to new World Champion Italy !
Australia competes for a podium place in the final season ranking, and it is up to Bob Pernom to achieve this.

Australia NT selection :

Bob Pernom ( 27 ) TeamEuroscalt
Gilbert Ray ( 28 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Angus Dixon ( 24 ) ICSluj
Markus Harris ( 27 ) CajaRuralZamora
Rick Sand ( 23 ) Galletto     ( debut )
Trevor Rooney ( 30 ) WFCyclingTeam
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 22 ) Villavante
Ashley Pinkman ( 19 ) Plopsala     ( debut )
Edward Garza ( 23 ) Teamclaes

[Vos]

To my very big surprise, this race went horribly wrong for teamcaptain Pernom ( = nr 6 flat-cobble ranking of CFF ).
He even rode in a pretty conservative tactic, incl. a back-up-trick in case it would be a much harder race as expected.
Also many back-up-tricks with the helpers, but even the few who were taking it relative slow in s1 + s2, in case Pernom failed,
they had no problem to follow the big front groups and therefore could not help Pernom.

"Normally", Pernom should have been in the wheel of best helper Ray in the s4 front group of just 8, and even easily.
But this is with the conservative teamcaptain tactic I used now, in most other NT seasons Pernom would go way too hard in s4 for Ray.

In fact, and to point out that this race was ridiculous ; Pernom even depended on help of a 22yo TT-specialist in the first 3 sections.
Maybe Pernom's mechanical breakdown in s3 happened in s1 instead but was not shown.
Anyway, I can try to speculate, but I cannot analyse it, besides the fact that NT races can be very weird and unpredictable sometimes.

On the very bright side of this very bad final race : 

8    Gilbert Ray      28   0: 31"   140      Thorboassonarvesen
12    Bob Pernom      27   0: 31"   100      TeamEuroscalt
19    Angus Dixon      24   0: 38"   20      ICSluj

Two of the "helpers" ( who never helped ) scored unexpected extra points.
Pernom was very far behind, and only worst helper Rooney made a big drop in s4 what caused that he could help Pernom,
who could repair the damage a little bit with a full power final section, nevertheless, 12th is a very bad result.

But the very bright side = despite a horrible race, Australia scored a good total amount of 260 points.
What is nr 4 in the day ranking, and even 10 points more as rival Estonia who has the nr1 of the CFF ranking ( he finished as 2nd ).
Very unexpected to me that Australia could beat Estonia, I did not even expected this if it would have been a very good final race.
Also remarkable ; world champion Italy scored 0 points, and even "on-paper-rival-for-podium" the Netherlands scored 0 points.

So, in the end I'm pretty happy with my worst achievement&seasonresult as Australian NT manager,
because this is how the TOP 3 final season ranking looks like : 

1.     1.950
2.     1.510
3.     1.420

[horace_vr]

Nevertheless, well done, Vos, with what you had at your disposal!

[Vos]

Thanks