Australia s32

[Vos]

RACE 5 :  Swiss cobblehills

20ºC

Oberstammheim, northern Switzerland,
At the moment Australia has 23( ! ) golden cobblehills-specialists, including very high ranked cyclists.
A few foreign amazing cyclists, such as Zarubin( RUS ) and Rose( GER ), seem very hard to beat, and therefore no victory is expected.
Despite this, the expectations should be high with this strong Australian selection.

Many Australians were very close to be selected, a few even extreme close, but these are the 9 that will compete in NT race 5.

Australia NT selection :

Colin Ronnald ( 26 ) MortoviaCycling
Emerson Brown ( 26 ) IKIBASQUE
James Crickton ( 27 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
Bruce Hunter ( 26 ) QuintoYtapa
Andrew Morse ( 28 ) FrançaiseDesJeux
Alex Ablett ( 31 ) Aspigarri
Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante
Alex Caan ( 24 ) Mlb
Gaynor Lust ( 24 ) Cabrasverdes     ( debut )

[Vos]

5    Colin Ronnald      26   0: 11"   180      MortoviaCycling
14    Andrew Morse      28   0: 25"   80      FrançaiseDesJeux
18    Emerson Brown      26   0: 32"   30      IKIBASQUE
19    Shaun Sifford      23   0: 32"   20      Villavante
20    Bruce Hunter      26   0: 32"   10      QuintoYtapa

Australia was the best scoring nation with 320 points, and moved up from 7th to 4th in the season ranking.

TOP 10 season ranking after 5 races ;

1     1.245
2     1.075
3     1.035
4      890
5      840
6      800
7      770
8      720
8      720
10    680

Unfortunately next week again a race with hills = HHHHH, what is very different compared to NT race 1 = FFFFH,
but to Australia that does not matter, because simply not good enough in the hills. So, I expect that Australia will drop.

Maybe there is still hope, because if the other nations devide the NT-race-6-points in a beneficial way to Australia,
maybe, and just maybe, it might be possible to battle for a podium place ( = 3rd ) this season, ánd against many other nations.
But this is the most positive scenario and perhaps even wishfull-thinking,
because "normally" no chance with the expected Australian points in the final 2 NT races.

[Vos]

RACE 6 :  hills in Utah

27ºC

Hamilton, USA,
The expectation should be low in this hills race.

So far 5 hills-specialists are selected, ánd 2 xp cyclists :
Sifford ( 23 ), who should be good enough to help a bit, and amazing that he is already the current nr 3 nr2 cobblehills of CFF. 
Kettrey ( 19 ), a very promising TT-specialist who makes his debut. 

The selection will be completed later this week, probably with one more helper and one more xp cyclist.
edit ; today the final 2 are selected, both are debutants too.

Australia NT selection :

Derek Jons ( 30 ) ZG
Virgil Seaman ( 27 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
Oliver Lewis ( 24 ) azerite
Sam Griffin ( 25 ) La_Vie_Claire
Pete Dix ( 24 ) OphiukoCT
Bobby Ferdinand ( 24 ) Turrones    ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante
- - - - - - - - - -
Gordon Kettrey ( 19 ) PDM_cycling_team    ( debut )
Brand Warrenburg ( 19 ) Texas    ( debut )

[Vos]

3    Derek Jons      30   0: 02"   225      ZG

WOW, a surprising, very impressive podium place !
Not the first time that Jons "overperforms", with as highlight his world championship victory in season 29.

Australia is 5th in the day-ranking, and ( unexpectedly ) still 4th in the season-ranking, what looks close and exciting.

TOP 10 season ranking, with 1 flat-cobble race to go ( behind the total points = top 40 flat-cobble ranking ) ;

1     1.525    =  14, 30, 35, 36
2     1.315    =  25
3     1.275    =  1, 23
4     1.115    =  7, 17, 21
5     1.060    =  38
6      980    =  8, 15, 31, 34, 40
7      950    =  3, 13, 28
8      900    =  5, 10, 11, 27
9      830    =  19
10    780    =  2, 4, 26

[Vos]

RACE 7 : Spanish cobblestones


17ºC

Ciudad Real, Spain,
An exciting final race due to the current season ranking. I estimate that the target is France, to achieve a podiumplace this season.
Australia is 200 points behind, and if France does not score points, Pernom needs an amazing race with a 4th place = 200 points.
But that is a tie on points, what is still insecure because I have no clue who CFF will point out as higher ranked with a tie.
So, a much better situation is a 3rd place of Pernom, or 4th ánd that another Australian finishes as 20th.
A very difficult goal to achieve, the odds are against Australia, but in theory not impossible.

With the remark that my estimation of the podium-battle is also just theoretic, and even the "by-far-best-case-scenario" for Australia.

In practise, there could be many more scenarios, and almost all are not beneficial to Australia, for example France can score points.
And there are more nations who have a theoretic chance to achieve a podiumplace after an excellent final race.

And of course, there is also a scenario of a bad race, what causes a drop of Australia in the final season ranking.
There is even a realistic scenario of a drop, despite a good race of Australia.
But the goal is not just a good race ; Australia needs an amazing final race, and as always, the Aussies are motivated and ready !

Australia NT selection :

Bob Pernom ( 28 ) TeamEuroscalt
Gilbert Ray ( 29 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Kobe Duncan ( 23 ) TramontanaTeam    ( debut )
Rick Sand ( 24 ) Galletto
Angus Dixon ( 25 ) ICSluj
Markus Harris ( 28 ) CajaRuralZamora
Dave Adams ( 28 ) Kroton
Gilbert Logsdon ( 26 ) MaretiCT    ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante

[Vos]

5    Bob Pernom      28   0: 00"   180      TeamEuroscalt
18    Gilbert Ray      29   0: 32"   30      Thorboassonarvesen
19    Kobe Duncan      23   0: 32"   20      TramontanaTeam

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED !!! 
I'm really happy with my worst season-ranking-result as NT manager.
15 times I was the NT manager = 11x world champion, 3x silver, ánd now 1x bronze on my palmares.

TOP 10 final season ranking :

1     1.685   -->  Congratulazioni, Shiro_Lions ! 
2     1.635   
3     1.345 
- - - - - - - - - -
4     1.315
5     1.285     
6     1.210 
7     1.100 
8     1.090   
9     1.030
10     890   

[horace_vr]

Vos - the first Australian NT manager to have all 3 medals in his trophy case! 
Well done, and good luck next season too!

[Vos]

Thanks 

But not correct, because Aurora Australis achieved already in season 12 all 3 NT medals.
But I'm in an elite "3 amazing NT managers"-group now ,
with Aurora Australis and the just one foreign NT manager who achieved this too ; TeamEuroscalt.

About next NT season ; there are still no candidates, so, if someone wants to take over the NT job, that is fine by me, please do.
The past 2 seasons Australia was unlucky with the NT calendar.
I assume this will not happen 3 times in a row and that the next season NT calendar is more suited.