Australia NT Season 7

[Aurora Australis]

AUSTRALIAN NT - Season 7

Part of the Brisbane bicentennial bikeway & Kurilpa Bridge over the Brisbane River, William Jolly Bridge in background

Welcome to season 7, and my final season as NT manager for a while.  We have two flat TT races.  My Richard Levin is complaining that they're 40kms too short; however he can suck it up.  Of course the fact they aren't long means finishing 1st isn't a safe bet, but at least we do have a chance of beating the all-powerful Spanish team for quite possibly the final time (unless the Spanish elects a poor NT manager).

We're still going to need decent points in the non-TT races, and can be certain of assistance in the cobbles race 7, however from there it gets into overperform territory yet again (for example my Fraser Morris who's a lowly GB domestique is rated 1.6av higher in pure climbs to Anthony Garza; my silver starred Daniel Cerdan [Spanish domestique] rated 0.6av higher in sprint to Tony Carter [near zero experience]).  Still, we have hope for some further luck coming our way.

Current Australian cyclist rankings below.

[Aurora Australis]

Just as a personal reference, when I was working in the CBD, I'd take my motorbike over the William Jolly, park it, then jog over the bridge with the lights into work.  And do you see the raised platform just above the water going under the William Jolly?  That's part of the walking & cycling path, you can just see it sticking out from under the road in the foreground.
And the bridge lights are different colours on different nights.

Btw: One day left for anybody with this World Challenge card and wishing to change to Australia.

[Aurora Australis]

Race 1 

Selections :
Austin Burton   25   TeamRHB
Denis Curry   25   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
John Jones   25   Oska (leader)
Patrick Fredickson   25   $Tourmalet
Royce Henderson   25   Albero
Steve Owens   25   Oska
Stu Beal   25   $Tourmalet
Tyler Walker   25   NervionBike
Allan Winger   23   Speedbird

Prospects: 7th last season was a surprise, and it'll still be a surprise if it repeats.  Prediction is same as prediction for last season, 15th.

Results:
15th   John Jones      0: 39"   70 points      Oska

[Aurora Australis]

Race 2 

Selections :
Anthony Garza   25   Spitz (leader)
Daniel Lucas   25   Albero
Kent Carey   25   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Nate Henderson   25   TeamEuroscalt
Scott Springsteen   25   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Trevor Winger   24   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Colin Mount   20   Sacido
Ryan Henderson   20   FrançaiseDesJeux

One more to be selected

We got really lucky last season.  My own climber is around 1.5av higher in pure climbs than Garza (who's a flat-climber), and he isn't near the best, so we want some more luck.
Prospects: 50/50 shot at points.

Results:
16th   Anthony Garza      0: 47"   60 points

[Franky]

60 points, you almost hit the prediction...heheh

[Aurora Australis]

Well we'd certainly take 60 points if it was offered this week.  With expectations low, here's the 19 to 23 year old cyclists to note list.

AUSTRALIAN 19-23 - Cyclists to note

(list as of today - click on attachment)

[Aurora Australis]

Race 3 

Selections :
Derek Nelson   25   Yvo_Meppelink_ProCycling (leader??)
Tony Carter   25   Vitimper (leader??)
Oliver Stamer   23   FaltososDeChigre
Brent Hunter   21   WinterIsComing
Ryan Pierre   20   Shiro_Lions

Stu Woods   azerite   25
David Dixon   LosTxinosKudeiros   25

Other two spots will be to young non-sprinters (there's nobody who I could honestly select).  Seriously, if you're starting a new generation of sprinters, send your international scout down to Australia, any half-decent sprinter will get NT experience.

Our sprinters shouldn't have gotten points last season, and they seem to be further behind this season, and worse, no wind to catch the unwary.  Carter should be leader, except he hasn't been raced outside of NTs (too common theme here), so chain-smoking no stamina Nelson may possibly be leader.
Prospects:15% chance at points, and only because of hope others make errors.

Results:
11th   Derek Nelson      0: 21"   110 points

You'd think this would be good news, however the Spanish sabotaged themselves, Hungarians didn't select several top guys, English left their main guy without any support, Americans didn't even show up, & etc, which meant the Dutch have gained at least 200 points they shouldn't have, and now have 1.9 hands on the NT championship.

Unfortunately, they aren't going to be awol when we need them to be.

[Vos]

Good luck on the Champs-Élysées, Aurora Australis !
Unfortunately we have no Caleb Ewan (AUS) in CFF, who won this stage in the real Tour de France of 2019.

[Franky]

heyy! 110 points, not bad, man!!

[Aurora Australis]

heyy! 110 points, not bad, man!!

The result is 110 points we shouldn't have gotten, so that was cool.  I'm only disappointed that it's because other non-Dutch managers did a poor job.  I had an alternative plan to completely screw up the results, which I didn't do because I thought the English & others would do a better job & not let WiC gain so many points, so I'm a tiny bit frustrated at that, because this was the last season we were likely to be serious contenders for a championship, and that's now almost out of reach.
Still, we'll be able to finish in 2nd, so that'll be cool.

[Aurora Australis]

Race 4 

Selections :
Ben Mitchum   25   Aurora_Australis
Isaac Trump   25   Aurora_Australis
Owen Acree   25   Aurora_Australis
Richard Levin   25   Aurora_Australis
Christian Pinkney   24   Aurora_Australis
Neil Bell   24   Aurora_Australis
Paul Clickett   24   Aurora_Australis

Two more to be selected.  Below is the current standard calculation with a rough weather bonus added.  I don't think they'll make the points, but it's possible [note Bookout (and my team) is training TT, so race 6 is more likely his deput].

92.69   Jim Slipper   25   Frenkie
92.38   Dan Malone   24   TeamEuroscalt
92.34   Hank Kewell   25   Frenkie
92.30   Clyde Gill   25   Frenkie
92.24   George Bookout   25   Aurora_Australis

Prospects: 2nd (Levin), two more in top 5 (Clickett & Trump), 6th or 7th (Pinkney), several more in points.

Results:1st   Richard Levin      25   0: 00"   300 points
3rd   Paul Clickett      24   0: 03"   225 points
4th   Isaac Trump      25   0: 06"   200 points
9th   Christian Pinkney      24   0: 12"   130 points
12th   Ben Mitchum      25   0: 14"   100 points

[Aurora Australis]

Required Target:  A record breaking 900 points in tonight's TT race to keep the slimiest hopes of a championship alive.

[WinterIsComing]

Required Target:  A record breaking 900 points in tonight's TT race to keep the slimiest hopes of a championship alive.

AA still likes to be underdog... 

Let's wait and see what happens tonight.

[Aurora Australis]

Required Target:  A record breaking 900 points in tonight's TT race to keep the slimiest hopes of a championship alive.

AA still likes to be underdog... 
Let's wait and see what happens tonight.

I unfortunately did some calculations.  Australia has next to zero chance in race 5 (not exactly news).  If Australia is lucky, and both the Dutch have a bad day & other NT managers show up, you might be unlucky enough to only get 150 points.  However in this season the sky is the limit from there.  Then race 7, the Dutch have a natural 200+ point advantage, more given the season so far, and one cyclist can't do much tactically about that.  Add in the near 1200 disadvantage currently, and factor in a sprinkling of a few points in the TTs, Australia is needing 900 in each TT to have a chance.

[Vos]

Richard Levin (Aus) on his way to victory.
NT race 4, the time trial, Australian results = 1st, 3rd, 4th, 9th and 12th. This is a record total of 955 points ! 
Well done with all cyclists of your own team, Aurora Australis !
At the moment Australia is 2nd in the season ranking, just 205 points behind the Netherlands.
It seems to me that Australia is thé top favorite to become the world champion this season.