Author Topic: Australia NT Season 10  (Read 3898 times)

Vos

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Australia NT Season 10
« on: June 05, 2020, 12:44:15 PM »


A new NT season starts !  8)

Thanks for the votes. :)
Tomorrow I will post lists, preview(s) and selection of the first NT race ; a flathills-race in Switzerland.
Already today I opened this topic, in case someone wants to post something about this NT season 10 or about Australian cyclists.

Fox advice = Send your scout to Australia:-* 8) 
So I can make a list of the young Australian talents too. Then it will be fun for you to see your scouted Australian proudly on that list.

Franky

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2020, 01:40:56 PM »
I just want to see Jasper in the top of few lists...hahaha

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2020, 10:41:32 PM »

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2020, 04:53:17 AM »
Cool, my cyclists are that talented they broke your calculator (well not really but it sounds good).  Next season I'll start a fresh lot of 19 year olds to attempt a repeat.
It looks like we're got a couple of decent 23 year old climbers coming, go Sacido's cyclists.

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2020, 11:35:43 AM »
RACE 1 : FLAT-HILLS IN SWITZERLAND

38ºC

Olten, north of Switzerland,
For the very first time this well known stage of the Tour de Suisse is a NT race. ( well known because it was always on the CFF2 calendar )
Two times before there was a flat-hill NT race on the CFF3 calendar, both were the same race in Spain of 145km.
But with a different GV because depite it was also a FFFFH race, it had an uphill finish without downhill in the final section.
Back then Australia scored points ( 10º+11º in season 4, and 4º+16º in season 5 ), hopefully also points in this different flat-hills NT race.

Because such a flat-hills race is always a bit of a gamble, there is no space for (young) xp-cyclists.
Australia is on full strenght and the best cyclists are selected according to my estimated GV for this race.
With one exception ; the nr10 Duffy is selected instead of the nr9 Curry, his teammate and 5 times international.
Both are just as good as helpers, so this is a good opportunity for Duffy to make his debut what looks better on his profile.

It is not yet entirely certain who will be the teamcaptain, and just one Aussie has an active weather icon* in this extreme heat of 38ºC.

Australia NT selection :

Cameron Jones ( 28 ) Vital
Allan Winger ( 26 ) Speedbird
Oliver Stamer ( 26 ) FaltososDeChigre
Steve Owens ( 28 ) Oska
Vinnie Coleman ( 27 ) los_leones_del_sur
Austin Burton ( 28 ) TeamRHB
Tyler Walker ( 28 ) NervionBike
Bill Furey* ( 28 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team  ( debut )
Denis Duffy ( 28 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team  ( debut )

Franky

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2020, 11:37:21 AM »
wow, Duffy and Furey selected and Curry not!! This season Curry is going to be a bit jealous in the team...  ;D

btw: I'm a bit surprised to not seeing Aaron Palmer in the top 15 Climb-hills...a golden 9* climb-hiller
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 12:37:56 PM by Franky »

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2020, 01:30:41 PM »
Aaron Palmer is just outside the top 15 on number 16 with a GV of 83,87

There is a big difference in this climbhills GV compared to the icon rating of CFF.
This GV is for a pure climbhills race, flat is just 6%. And this is the reason Aaron Palmer is outside the top 15.
For example, GV's for SanSebastian and Lombardia are completely different as this climbhills GV in my Australian NT evaluator.

For the first time ever there is climbhills race on the NT calendar.
It has a flat section in it, so that is beneficial for Aaron Palmer.
My estimated GV for that NT race 6 will be very different as the standard climbhills GV.
As you can see at my NT race 1 selection (it is in order of GV), the GV is also adapted to that race and it is not the standard flat-hills GV.
A big disadvantage for Palmer in NT race 6 ; the final section is hills ( and s5 always very important in the GV percentages ).
Palmer is more suited for a climbhills race with at least 1 flat section and a mountain section as finish.
It is questionable whether he will be selected for the climbhills NT race. But I did not look into that race yet to see how many others are better.

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2020, 01:57:06 PM »
Cool, my cyclists are that talented they broke your calculator (well not really but it sounds good).  Next season I'll start a fresh lot of 19 year olds to attempt a repeat.
It looks like we're got a couple of decent 23 year old climbers coming, go Sacido's cyclists.

Over the 100, funny. :)
This is the same Australian NT evaluator I used in CFF2 where I was Australian NT manager many times.
But I cannot remember that I have seen it over the 100 before, so that probably never happened.

The climbers list is a bit misleading, because Australia has no good climbers at the moment.
Hopefully that will be better in the near future. Were Sacido's climbers in the u23 DT of previous season ?
There is a lot of real good competition in climbers, the most trained skill in this game.

This week I will look into the future chances of the young Australians.
This season Australia has 6 cyclists in the u23 Dream Team, probably more as usual, so that looks promising. :)
time trial
Charles Iverson   Frenkie
Steve Odom   Frenkie
Kirk Workman   Aurora_Australis
hills
Tim Morton   Inglourious_Bastards
Dudley Judd   Telleriarte
climb
Martin Hunter   Quickstepbronx

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2020, 04:40:36 PM »
  AUSTRALIA NT :  SEASON 10 PREVIEW

race 1   Luzern ; flat-hills
This race is new ( see preview race 1 ), so it is difficult to estimate what to expect.
Hopefully as many points as in those 2 other, different flat-hill races.
prediction = 240 points

race 2   Sestriere ; mountains
Australia is not good in the mountains. For example two seasons ago a 16th place in a pure mountain race.
But back in season 6 there was a very surprising good 8th place in this exact same race.
However, this is a rare exception, and the only time in a mountain race that an Australian finished in the top10.
prediction = 80 points

race 3   Milano ; sprint
A sprint race is easy to compare with past results ;
s5= zero points, s6= , s7= 11º, s8= zero points, and in previous season 9 there were 2 sprint races ; 11º and zero points.
A sprint race is always gambling and the level goes up every season because of new young topsprinters.
The best Australian sprinter is Nelson, he is the current nr 99 in the golden sprint list.
45 flat sprinters are better than Nelson, and probably a few other sprinters too who are listed as hills sprinter.
Let's hope the tactics will be good, so Nelson does great and can repeat the first result ( not the second result ) of season 9.
prediction = 110 points ( or zero ? )

race 4 Torino ; time trial
Thanks to Aurora Australis every season many points in the TT ;
s5= 815, s6= 725, s7= 955 + 1.045, s8= 835 and s9= 920.
prediction = 900

race 5   Meudon (very near to Paris) ; flat-cobblehills
Zero points in all different cobblehills races in the past 5 seasons. Logical, because Australia has no top cobblehills riders.
Only in the very first NT season 2 Australia scored many points in a pure cobblehills race ( 6º and 13º ),
after that only in season 4 there was a 17º place in a Strade Bianche NT race, and since then always zero points.
But I'm hopefull ( and perhaps not realistic ), because it is the first time this NT race with 3 flat sections is on the NT calendar.
With risky tactics it is maybe possible to score a few points.
prediction = 10 points

race 6   Barcelona ; climbhills
For the very first time a climbhills race, so no past results.
The best Australian hillsclimber is on nr 65 in the golden climb list, and there are 39 better foreign hillsclimbers.
But this does not have to mean that Australia will be bad in this specific climbhills race.
A top result and/or a few point-scoring Aussies seems to me out of the question, but it is difficult to estimate how Australia will do.
So it will be a wild guess ;
prediction = 140 points

race 7   Breskens ; cobblestones
The start- and finishplace is in Breskens, a town in the Netherlands, but this race is almost entirely in Belgium.
Belgium is the current world champion. The Netherlands finished as 3rd in previous season 9 but was the world champion in season 8.
So this could be a very appropriate apotheosis in the battle of the world championship.
Australia will go for the race victory with Angus Friend who was the teamcaptain on the cobblestones in s6=, s7=, and s8=.
prediction = 300 points

- - - - - - - - - -

Add this all up, and the very optimistic total season prediction = 1.780 points  :o  :))
Belgium is the current world champion with 1.620 points.
The Netherlands was world champion in season 8 with 1.685 points.
Of course, my prediction is way too optimistic, and there is many fierce competition this season.
For example France, Portugal and Ukraine will probably benefit of the climbhills race.
And countries like Spain, Great Britain and Norway are most likely rivals too.
And maybe Italy and Denmark can compete for podiumplaces, or another country that I have not mentioned.

Season goal of Australia = battle for a podiumplace. 8)
NT race 1 will be already very important for Australia, almost no points is also possible instead of my point rich prediction.
edit ; ( in bold my favorites, in blue the future nr 3, with the remark that I could be completely wrong )
« Last Edit: June 06, 2020, 04:44:17 PM by Vos »

FIO

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #9 on: June 06, 2020, 11:50:56 PM »
Nice job!

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2020, 11:11:42 PM »
Bad start of the NT season. In NT race 1 unexpectedly it went wrong in s3 althoug the peleton was still big with 72.
But in s3 the teamcaptain, 3 helpers and 3 free rolers suddenly could not follow. And almost all used energy in s3.

Free role Winger saved the honor of Australia by scoring 10 points. ( that is about 4% of my optimistic prediction  :-[ :)) )

Franky

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2020, 08:40:27 AM »
Aaron Palmer is just outside the top 15 on number 16 with a GV of 83,87

There is a big difference in this climbhills GV compared to the icon rating of CFF.
This GV is for a pure climbhills race, flat is just 6%. And this is the reason Aaron Palmer is outside the top 15.
For example, GV's for SanSebastian and Lombardia are completely different as this climbhills GV in my Australian NT evaluator.

For the first time ever there is climbhills race on the NT calendar.
It has a flat section in it, so that is beneficial for Aaron Palmer.
My estimated GV for that NT race 6 will be very different as the standard climbhills GV.
As you can see at my NT race 1 selection (it is in order of GV), the GV is also adapted to that race and it is not the standard flat-hills GV.
A big disadvantage for Palmer in NT race 6 ; the final section is hills ( and s5 always very important in the GV percentages ).
Palmer is more suited for a climbhills race with at least 1 flat section and a mountain section as finish.
It is questionable whether he will be selected for the climbhills NT race. But I did not look into that race yet to see how many others are better.

Yah, I know that.. Aaron is more suitable for races like Stage 5 of Paris Nice or Stage 1 Tirreno this season...

For NT Race 6, Joe Ryan could be 1 of our best options...I think others like Henderson, Burgess, Carey, etc...has a profile with more climbing and less hills...I dont remember exactly.

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2020, 09:16:18 AM »
I have to look into that NT race 6, hopefully Australia has some suited climbhills riders for that specific race.
Because points are needed after a dissapointing NT race 1, otherwise the season goal of battling for a podium place will not be achieved.

But first the mountain race where the expectations are very low.
After that the sprint race in Milano ; prepare your 20yo Jasper Blair good, for sure he will be selected. 8)

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2020, 02:39:22 PM »


Australia u24


Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 10
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2020, 11:53:53 AM »
RACE 2 : SNOWY ALPS

1ºC

Saint Gervais, French Alps,
The expectations are low in this cold and brutal monster stage of 254km to Sestriere ( Italy ).
Australia has zero golden climbers who are listed as pure climber in the golden climbers list of 336(!) cyclists.
Garza will be the teamcaptain who has a golden icon on flat-climb, but I assume he has just silver on pure climb.
Hopefully he can score a few points anyway.

6 climbers are selected, including the 21yo Furey who makes his debut.
This NT race is a good opportunity to select xp cyclists as well. All 3 are in the u23 Dream Team ;
Hunter (climbills) and Iverson (flat-TT) will make their debut also, and Morton (hills) was selected just 1x before.
And no worries for managers who have also very promising young Australian talents, they are all on my radar and maybe selected next time.
For example the 20yo sprint-toptalent Blair (3x international) will be selected next week.

Australia NT selection :

Anthony Garza ( 28 ) SaulSalinasTeam
Daniel Lucas ( 28 ) SAGASAI
Scott Springsteen ( 28 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Colin Mount ( 23 ) Sacido
Ryan Henderson ( 23 ) FrançaiseDesJeux
Jason Furey ( 21 ) PDM_cycling_team   ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Martin Hunter ( 22 ) Quickstepbronx   ( debut )
Tim Morton ( 22 ) Inglourious_Bastards
Charles Iverson ( 22 ) Frenkie   ( debut )
« Last Edit: June 13, 2020, 08:01:48 AM by Vos »