AUSTRALIA NT : SEASON 10 PREVIEW
race 1
Luzern ;
flat-hillsThis race is new ( see preview race 1 ), so it is difficult to estimate what to expect.
Hopefully as many points as in those 2 other, different flat-hill races.
prediction = 240 points
race 2
Sestriere ;
mountainsAustralia is not good in the mountains. For example two seasons ago a 16th place in a pure mountain race.
But back in season 6 there was a very surprising good 8th place in this exact same race.
However, this is a rare exception, and the only time in a mountain race that an Australian finished in the top10.
prediction = 80 points
race 3
Milano ;
sprintA sprint race is easy to compare with past results ;
s5=
zero points, s6=
4º, s7=
11º, s8=
zero points, and in previous season 9 there were 2 sprint races ;
11º and
zero points.
A sprint race is always gambling and the level goes up every season because of new young topsprinters.
The best Australian sprinter is Nelson, he is the current nr 99 in the golden sprint list.
45 flat sprinters are better than Nelson, and probably a few other sprinters too who are listed as hills sprinter.
Let's hope the tactics will be good, so Nelson does great and can repeat the first result ( not the second result ) of season 9.
prediction = 110 points ( or zero ? )
race 4
Torino ;
time trialThanks to Aurora Australis every season many points in the TT ;
s5= 815, s6= 725, s7= 955 + 1.045, s8= 835 and s9= 920.
prediction = 900
race 5
Meudon (
very near to Paris) ;
flat-cobblehillsZero points in all different cobblehills races in the past 5 seasons. Logical, because Australia has no top cobblehills riders.
Only in the very first NT season 2 Australia scored many points in a pure cobblehills race ( 6º and 13º ),
after that only in season 4 there was a 17º place in a Strade Bianche NT race, and since then always zero points.
But I'm hopefull ( and perhaps not realistic ), because it is the first time this NT race with 3 flat sections is on the NT calendar.
With risky tactics it is maybe possible to score a few points.
prediction = 10 points
race 6
Barcelona ;
climbhillsFor the very first time a climbhills race, so no past results.
The best Australian hillsclimber is on nr 65 in the golden climb list, and there are 39 better foreign hillsclimbers.
But this does not have to mean that Australia will be bad in this specific climbhills race.
A top result and/or a few point-scoring Aussies seems to me out of the question, but it is difficult to estimate how Australia will do.
So it will be a wild guess ;
prediction = 140 points
race 7
Breskens ;
cobblestonesThe start- and finishplace is in Breskens, a town in the Netherlands, but this race is almost entirely in Belgium.
Belgium is the current world champion. The Netherlands finished as 3rd in previous season 9 but was the world champion in season 8.
So this could be a very appropriate apotheosis in the battle of the world championship.
Australia will go for the race victory with Angus Friend who was the teamcaptain on the cobblestones in s6=
4º, s7=
1º, and s8=
1º.
prediction = 300 points
- - - - - - - - - -
Add this all up, and the
very optimistic total season prediction = 1.780 points
Belgium is the current world champion with 1.620 points.
The
Netherlands was world champion in season 8 with 1.685 points.
Of course, my prediction is way too optimistic, and there is many fierce competition this season.
For example
France, Portugal and Ukraine will probably benefit of the climbhills race.
And countries like Spain, Great Britain and Norway are most likely rivals too.
And maybe Italy and Denmark can compete for podiumplaces, or another country that I have not mentioned.
Season goal of
Australia =
battle for a podiumplace.
NT race 1 will be already very important for Australia, almost no points is also possible instead of my point rich prediction.
edit ; (
in bold my favorites, in blue the future nr 3, with the remark that I could be completely wrong )
