Author Topic: Australia s30  (Read 923 times)

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2023, 11:44:18 AM »


Australia u20 ( 33 cyclists ) :

Fontainbleau

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2023, 10:06:30 AM »
Terrell Clapton has reached gold in cobblestone hills 😀

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2023, 04:22:24 PM »
Terrell Clapton has reached gold in cobblestone hills 😀

Nice !  :)

Clapton is the 4th young 23yo cobblehills specialist who enters the golden cobble ranking on nr 215.
Two other foreign 23yo's are very close by on nrs 208 and 197, only the best foreign 23yo has a little bit of a gap on nr 165.

In previous season I gave Clapton his NT debut, because back then he was the nr1 in the u23 DreamTeam.
And because he will be an excellent cobblehills specialist ( if he trains very well this season, especially on his 2 lowest side skills ).

However, Clapton has fierce competition to get a NT selection in future races, because :

5.   Vlaanderen  FCHC^H 256 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Thé new speciality of Australia ( instead of TT ), because we have a bunch of young and amazing cobblehills specialists.
Unfortunately there are a few foreign rivals who are ( much ) better, and therefore no 5-stars-rating.
But right now it's difficult what to expect, because RVV has a different race GV as the standard cobblehills GV.
It is certainly possible that Australia will be the best scoring nation in future NT cobblehills races, but most likely not yet this season.


In the current golden cobble ranking there are 17 Australian cobblehills specialist ( incl. Clapton ).
Among them 5 high ranked Australians, and I'm in doubt if Clapton will be better than the nr 5.
If the current ( also excellent ) Australians were all the competition, then probably no problem that Clapton gets future NT selections.

But . . . . .
Australia has some younger cobblehills specialists with amazing potential.
Especially in the team of Villavante ; 3x 21yo's,
incl. supertoptalent Sifford who in my estimation will be better than the current top ranked Ronnald and Morse.
His two 21yo teammates have also great potential ; with perfect training they will be even much better as the excellent Clapton.
But perfect training might be an issue because Sifford decides the training schedule, so, both might become less good as I estimate.
Although, despite not perfect training, maybe one or both will still be more than excellent and also a very high top ranking.

Further more, but i.m.o. of less quality as the Villavante talents ;
I see two 22yo's with very good potential ( incl. the nr 8 u23 DT = nr 5 on cobblehills ),
if they train perfectly, most likely they will be a bit better as Clapton.

So, according to me, the Australian future competition in cobblehills will be extreme fierce !  8)
And it will be not a guarantee to get a NT selection for some excellent Australian cobblehills specialists,
probably it will depend on the different kind of cobblehills races who will be the best top 9 GV ( or the best helpers ).

But that does change the fact that I like Clapton a lot, he can become excellent ( and with already gold now, in fact already excellent ).
If Clapton had another nationality, it would be obvious and self-evident that he gets NT selections in all types of cobblehills races.
I was not exaggerating in my statement ;  :)
Thé new speciality of Australia ( instead of TT )
And in the TT-glory days of Australia, the Aus.NT managers had to dissapoint a lot of excellent high ranked TT specialists,
because we could select just 9. Perhaps this will be the future case now with cobblehills specialists.

Of course, there is always a possibility that my estimations of the young talents are not correct,
and maybe they will be less good as I expect. TR and how they train, are both of big influence, and ( in most cases ) unknown to me.
For sure also of influence is that I'm not an expert in estimating young talents, it is more on "Fox-gut-feeling", instead of calculations.

Fontainbleau

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2023, 10:19:24 AM »
Thanks for the detailed response. I wasn't expecting a response. I just posted it because I was happy that he increased to gold. He has just finished training his stamina and is now training downhill. After that I will do flat and then technique.

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #19 on: March 03, 2023, 12:23:53 PM »
You're welcome, and sometimes I get carried away with a way too long text response, this is a good example of that. :))

See it as ; for a part a response to you personally, but for the bigger part it is more a text in general / to everyone,
about the future Australian NT situation in cobblehills.

And who knows, maybe someone who reads this text, is now persuaded to be my successor as NT manager in the next season.
About time, because I'm the NT manager for 4 seasons in a row now, and certainly it will be fun to ride with Australia in cobblehills races. :)

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #20 on: March 03, 2023, 02:30:50 PM »
RACE 4 : DUTCH TT

17ºC

Breda, the Netherlands,
Tomorrow or even on Sunday morning the final selection will be made.
Because it is superclose between 8 cyclists for the remaining 6 spots, considering everything and not just my estimated race GV.
It could be that the few upcoming training sessions makes a difference in who to select.

Most likely my strategy will be ; gamble on the fully experienced old cyclists, and hope that they are still good enough to score points.
Or maybe it depends on the luck-factor if Australia ( still ) can score a decent amount of points, or even a very low amount of points.
One thing is certain ; the expectations are way lower as in previous season.

For example the now as 2nd best selected Sammy Alfier finished as 32nd in previous season, as last of the 9 selected Australians.
But I assume that luck was not on his side, because in s28 he finished as 19th and scored a few points.
Hopefully he does better now, also because he is the 2nd best Australian in the CFF flat-TT-ranking on nr 9.
Johnston is the best Australian according to CFF, he is on nr 7, and due to his active weather icon*, he should be able to do well.
Although, in s29 he was also the highest ranked Australian, and finished as 9th behind 3 other Australians, also 31yo and one 32yo.
It shows that luck for sure plays a role, and hopefully luck is on the Australian side in this upcoming time trial, most likely it is needed.

Australia NT selection :

Gilbert Johnston* ( 32 ) SentinelChickens
Lenny Taylor ( 32 ) RHyNeStOnEs
Sammy Alfier ( 27 ) Facha_Bartolo
Jonny Alfier ( 33 ) Innioraths
Billy Janson ( 32 ) Plopsala
Oliver Churchil ( 31 ) Speedbird
Maurice Hunter ( 28 ) SPORTLIFE
Alex Trautemberg* ( 32 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Bob Iverson ( 32 ) Catalonia_Team

edit ; Today the final 6 are selected, and this is the exact same TT selection as in previous NT season.

Again the not-selection of Herd ( 27yo ), who is the Aus.nr 4 according to my GV, and also the Aus.nr 4 according to the CFF ranking.
Also the even less experienced Boit ( 27yo ) is not selected, and he has a higher CFF ranking as 4 selected Australians.
Foley ( 28yo ) and Ferdinand ( 27yo ) are not selected too, despite being the Aus.nrs 8 & 9  in the CFF ranking,
also not experienced enough on top of their not high CFF ranking.

Instead I gamble on the experienced old cyclists, and for example Iverson has more than 1 full GV point less as the not selected Herd.
But in the 2 previous seasons it was also the case that Iverson had a too low CFF ranking, ánd a too low by me estimated race GV.
But somehow he is extreme lucky in NT races ;
5th in s28 ( = with weather icon and with mechanical breakdown ), and 6th in previous s29.
Reason enough to select him again and gamble on his extreme luck.

Trautemberg has even the lowest CFF ranking, but according to my estimated race GV, he is 0,4 better than Iverson.
In previous season he finished as 16th, and now he is selected mainly due to his active weather icon*, but also due to max. experience.

For sure experience was very important in my selection choices, for example also the reason why Churchil is selected with 97 xp.
In previous season I even gave him his debut at 30yo, and with success, because he scored a few points with his 18th place.
Hopefully he is again lucky and can score a few points.

But it could be very well possible that just 2 or 3 Australians can score points in this time trial. Or maybe many more, if they are lucky.
At least I ruled out the possibillity of a dissapointing time trial because of not experienced enough TT specialists.
This selection has a total of 857 xp, probably by far the most experienced NT selection of all nations in all NT races of this season
.
:)

« Last Edit: March 05, 2023, 01:24:20 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2023, 01:00:37 PM »
6    Sammy Alfier      27   0: 05"   160      Facha_Bartolo
11    Lenny Taylor      32   0: 08"   110      RHyNeStOnEs
12    Gilbert Johnston      32   0: 08"   100      SentinelChickens
13    Alex Trautemberg      32   0: 08"   90      Thorboassonarvesen
15    Oliver Churchil      31   0: 09"   70      Speedbird
19    Billy Janson      32   0: 11"   20      Plopsala
20    Jonny Alfier      33   0: 11"   10      Innioraths
- - - - - - - - - -
28    Maurice Hunter      28   0: 14"   0      SPORTLIFE
30    Bob Iverson      32   0: 14"   0      Catalonia_Team

Fortunately this time no mechanical breakdowns or flat tires. Still, luck was a factor, and some were very lucky and a few not lucky.
And as expected, way less TT points as in previous season ( ánd way less TT points as in almost all past NT seasons ),
but I'm very satisfied with these results and the relative very good total amount of 560 points = the best race score of all nations.

TOP 5 season ranking after 4 races :

1.   1.410  8)
2.    915
3.    750
4.    715
5.    680

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2023, 02:14:40 PM »


Australia u20 ( 35 cyclists ) :

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2023, 11:37:41 AM »
RACE 5 : Flanders' most beautiful

37ºC

Bruges, Belgium,
Australia should be pretty strong with the nrs 6, 7, 12, 20, 33, 46, 49, 56, 57 in the CFF cobblehills ranking.
Not all 9 highest ranked Aussies are selected, because nr 46 is replaced by nr 69 who makes his debut thanks to a much better flat skill.

This RVV-race will be important in the world championship battle.
A good amount of points is needed now, because Australia is very bad in NT race 6 of next week.

Australia NT selection :

Colin Ronnald ( 24 ) MortoviaCycling
Andrew Morse ( 26 ) Plopsala
Alex Ablett* ( 29 ) Aspigarri
Emerson Brown ( 24 ) Atlanterhavet
James Crickton ( 25 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
Norman Pocock ( 31 ) Flandria
Kenneth Jackson* ( 29 ) Astanadena
Bruce Hunter ( 24 ) QuintoYtapa
Tony Glass ( 24 ) LaPlagaTeam    ( debut )

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #24 on: March 13, 2023, 10:51:56 AM »
Looks like they've probably done enough for Australia to limp over the line in 1st for the season in the final race.

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #25 on: March 13, 2023, 02:27:22 PM »
3    Andrew Morse      26   0: 09"   225      Plopsala
8    Alex Ablett      29   0: 25"   140      Aspigarri
18    Kenneth Jackson      29   0: 42"   30      Astanadena

Very good results.  8)

Unfortunately teamcaptain Morse had no helper in the s4 front group of just 6 cyclists,
including free role Ablett* ( =very nice ! ), the also isolated Ukrainien teamcaptain, and 50% of this s4 front group was Russian.

Best helper ( thanks to weather icon* ) Jackson* came close, he was on 0:09" in the s4 chasing group of just 7 cyclists.
But he scored a few points himself, and also good to see that many young helpers finished not far outside the points.

The only other free role, Ronnald, seemed to have an off-day ( 26th on 0:50" ), because very unexpectedly, he dropped in s3 already.
Together with just one other ( also dissapointing ) Australian helper, all other 7 Australians were in the s3 front of 39 cyclists.

Australia scored a very nice total of 395 points in this race. Only Russia ( with thé top favorite ) did better, they scored 510 points.
Also very beneficial in this NT race 5 ;
no points of the former nrs 3 and 5 of the season ranking, the still nr 4 scored 100 points, and the former nr 2 just 20 points.
All other countries are doing a good job to devide the points more or less equally this season, what is very benificial to Australia. :)

TOP 5 season ranking after 5 races :

1.   1.805  8)
2.    945
3.    935
4.    815
5.    780

Looks like they've probably done enough for Australia to limp over the line in 1st for the season in the final race.
Yes, it seems / looks like that this NT race 5 was successful enough to achieve another world championship,
and that we can affort to have a ( expected ) NT race 6 with zero or almost zero points.

The current gap towards the nr 2 is huge at the moment, but still too soon to tell / it is not certain yet.
For example nr 2 Russia has the best ranked hillsclimber ( NT race 6 ) and the nr 3 ranked flat-cobble ( NT race 7 ).

And perhaps there will be another rival nation ( besides Russia ) after the unpredictable NT race 6, if it scores an enormous total points.
But for now it looks very promising due to the current big gap in points + at least top10 is expected in NT race 7.
And if all other nations keep on dividing the points more or less equally, the current total Australian points might be enough already.
Anyway, for sure too soon to cheer already with still 2 NT races to go, where Australia does not score many total points.

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #26 on: March 18, 2023, 06:52:49 PM »
RACE 6 : ANDORRA

34ºC

Andorra,
Hopefully the Australian teamcaptain is good enough to score some points.
The helpers are the just 2 other ( very low ranked- )golden hillsclimbers, ánd even 2 silver cyclists are selected for extra support.
Because of the low Australian quality in this hillsclimb race, there is a lot of space for xp cyclists.

Australia NT selection :

Liam Chester ( 29 ) Flandria     ( debut )
Don Ford ( 30 ) Naram     ( debut )
Charlie Blixter* ( 27 ) alasbravasagain     ( debut )
Cody Embley ( 30 ) MohoricSLO
Dudley Bell ( 25 ) AmericanChow     ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - -
Rick Cann ( 27 ) Atlanterhavet
Shaun Sifford ( 21 ) Villavante
Walt Furey ( 21 ) Villavante     ( debut )
Colin Ronnald ( 24 ) MortoviaCycling

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2023, 09:35:56 PM »
Liam Chester    0:13"
A perfect race with a surprising, amazing result !  8)
Thanks to a great helper's job of Don Ford, who was still with his teamcaptain in the s4 front group of 27.

Italy ( 380 ) and Colombia ( 380 ) scored the most points, but no "potential rivals", because too far behind in the season ranking.
France ( 230 ) was third and just 5 points better than Australia ( 225 ), so, we did better than "rivals" Russia and the Netherlands.

TOP 5 season ranking after 6 races :

1.    2.030  8)
2.    1.065
3.    1.035
4.    1.010
5.      980

Despite there is still one NT race to go, it is already official due to the current enormous lead in the season ranking :


For the 13th time in a row ;

Australia = world champion !

Big thanks to all managers that trained or raced with Australian top cyclists, who made this 17th( ! ) Australian world championship possible ! 8)

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2023, 01:04:09 AM »
RACE 7 : BRESKENS

21ºC

Breskens, the Netherlands,
The start and finish is in the Netherlands, but almost the whole race is in Belgium.
It is up to Pernom to try to get a nice race result, in this to me unexpected great NT season with again a world championship title. 8)

Australia NT selection :

Bob Pernom ( 26 ) TeamEuroscalt
Gilbert Ray ( 27 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Angus Dixon ( 23 ) ICSluj
Markus Harris ( 26 ) CajaRuralZamora
Dave Adams ( 26 ) Kroton
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 21 ) Villavante
Gus Furlong ( 21 ) HTCHungria     ( debut )
Alex Caan ( 22 ) Mlb     ( debut )
Rick Cann ( 27 ) Atlanterhavet
« Last Edit: March 25, 2023, 10:54:50 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s30
« Reply #29 on: March 27, 2023, 01:26:01 PM »
NT race 7, final top 3 =
1    Erol Ryazanov      26   0: 00"   300      PDM_cycling_team
2    Bob Pernom      26   0: 00"   250      TeamEuroscalt
3    Brage Hope      27   0: 06"   225      Atlanterhavet

Unfortunately Pernom lost the sprint-á-deux for victory, but 2nd is still more than an excellent result.
And a great way to finish this amazing NT season !  :)
With an unexpected ( relative-)very high 2.280 total points, ánd a huge gap to nr 2 Russia that scored 1.365 total points.


For the 13th time in a row ;

Australia = world champion !

Big thanks to all managers that trained or raced with Australian top cyclists, who made this 17th( ! ) Australian world championship possible ! 8)