Author Topic: Australia NT Season 12  (Read 3136 times)

horace_vr

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2020, 04:59:14 PM »
@AA: there are separate rankings for Sprint-Cobblers, Hill-Cobblers, and also Cobblers...? What kind of races are "pure" Cobblestones ?

P.S.: When did you pull the 19yo data ? Are my 2 young Aussies that bad in Cobb-Hills that they are not even worth mentioning ? :D

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2020, 05:59:51 PM »
@AA: there are separate rankings for Sprint-Cobblers, Hill-Cobblers, and also Cobblers...? What kind of races are "pure" Cobblestones ?
P.S.: When did you pull the 19yo data ? Are my 2 young Aussies that bad in Cobb-Hills that they are not even worth mentioning ? :D
It's the U24 listing, so u19s mightn't be in the listing depending on how many older decent talents there are.  And full cobblers are races with at least 3-4 cobble sections ending in cobbles (sprint-cobbles are 2 cobbles ending in sprint).

Btw:  COBBLERS            
#   Score   Name   Age   Team
1   63.61   Julian Power   20   LosTxinosKudeiros
4   55.38   Justin Jameson   19   Zatarra
10   50.81   Nate Filsbourne   19   Frenkie
12   49.45   Brad Lindsay   19   Artxube
13   48.10   Todd Teinert   19   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
15   47.95   Marc Ashley   19   TeaMetal

HILL-COBBLERS:            
#   Score   Name   Age   Team
1   53.62   Herbie Ashley   20   Flyvende_hjul
8   49.65   Mark Whisman   19   NervionBike
9   49.59   Dave Springsteen   19   Frenkie
10   49.21   Tim Williams   19   SPORTLIFE
13   48.22   Nate Filsbourne   19   Frenkie
14   47.75   Bruce Iverson   19   Artxube
15   47.53   Billy Winger   19   TeaMetal

Full U21 listing will come in a few days.  Btw, I believe you can pull better 19 year old cobblers.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 06:02:48 PM by Aurora Australis »

horace_vr

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2020, 06:05:02 PM »
@AA: there are separate rankings for Sprint-Cobblers, Hill-Cobblers, and also Cobblers...? What kind of races are "pure" Cobblestones ?
P.S.: When did you pull the 19yo data ? Are my 2 young Aussies that bad in Cobb-Hills that they are not even worth mentioning ? :D
It's the U24 listing, so u19s mightn't be in the listing depending on how many older decent talents there are.  And full cobblers are races with at least 3-4 cobble sections ending in cobbles (sprint-cobbles are 2 cobbles ending in sprint).
Full U21 listing will come in a few days.  Btw, I believe you can pull better 19 year old cobblers.

Thanks for the explanation; and yes, working on pulling better guys :D

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2020, 02:39:30 AM »
Race 2

Quote
Selections :
Anthony Garza   30   SaulSalinasTeam
Daniel Lucas   30   SAGASAI
Scott Springsteen   30   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Colin Mount   25   Sacido (leader)
Ryan Henderson   25   FrançaiseDesJeux
Jason Furey   23   PDM_cycling_team
Trevor Winger   29   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Keith Hunter   22   catapunchimpon
Danny Carpenter   21   los_leones_del_sur
   
I was going to select 22yo TTer Julian Frances, but zero experience meant no selection, and several others not being trained correctly.  So decided as my 9th selection to give Trevor Winger another chance to be a backup domestique.  Hunter & Carpenter were already selected for experience value.
Prospects: Tactics will be correct this race, so we have a chance to sneak into the points.

Results:
11th   Colin Mount      25   0: 38"   110      Sacido
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 07:58:15 PM by Aurora Australis »

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2020, 10:31:59 AM »
Daniel Lucas   30   SAGASAI (leader?)
Daniel Lucas should not be the leader, AA, he is just a silver 8 star pure climber and not good enough.
Maybe the just 126km of this NT race gives him a (in my opinion) misleading high GV.
It seems to me you have a few better options as teamcaptain in this race, although and of course, I cannot see the stats anymore.
So I could be wrong. And maybe my experiences in the past 2 seasons are misleading.
But maybe I could be right about estimating mountain races.
we have a chance to sneak into the points.
With a better teamcaptain for sure a chance to sneak into the points, but it can be difficult to achieve, there are many better foreign climbers.
The previews of the 2 pure mountain races in seasons 10 and 11 could be interesting :
( of course there are big differences, for example in s10 the race was twice as long ).

  AUSTRALIA NT :  SEASON 10 PREVIEW

race 2   Sestriere ; mountains
Australia is not good in the mountains. For example two seasons ago a 16th place in a pure mountain race.
But back in season 6 there was a very surprising good 8th place in this exact same race.
However, this is a rare exception, and the only time in a mountain race that an Australian finished in the top10.
prediction = 80 points

RACE PREVIEW =
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=632.msg21562#msg21562

RACE AFTERVIEW =
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=632.msg21647#msg21647

  AUSTRALIA NT :  SEASON 11 PREVIEW

race 2   Bola del Mundo ; mountains
Normally no points because Australia does not even have a golden pure climber.
At the moment I wrote this, I must have overlooked the 2 climbers who just had their 24th birthday.
And I just looked at the golden climbers ranking, and a comment about this later in this post.
First it is interesting to see the race preview and race afterview of the pure climb NT race of season 11.

RACE PREVIEW =
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=656.msg22596#msg22596

RACE AFTERVIEWS =
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=656.msg22645#msg22645
https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=656.msg22655#msg22655

Let's highlight a part of the second afterview, to compare it with the current situation :
But what is a better indication than this NT race, that is the golden ranking :
nr 184 = Mount, and nr 195 = R.Henderson.
To me that is too low, although we are Down Under of course happy that we have finally golden pure climbers after 10 seasons. :)
I suspect the 22yo Furey will be the Australian future teamcaptain in pure mountain races.
He is not in the u23 DT, no top climber also, but I estimate he will be gold in pure climb and ranked higher than Mount and R.Henderson.
Anyway, the future in pure mountain races looks brighter than the past with these 3 young golden pure climbers.
But still it is better for Australia if there is some flat and/or hills in a mountain NT race.

At the moment Australia has 3 pure climbers in the golden ranking :
( that they are lower ranked as previous season does not say anything, because the ranking also includes many hillsclimbers and many flatclimbers. )
nr 231 = R.Henderson
nr 264 = Mount
nr 328 = Furey ( 23yo ! )
About Furey, a week later (or so) than my quoted text, he came into the u23 DT. At the end of the season he moved up to the 5th place(or so).
Anyway, my prediction in the quoted text that he will be the future pure mountain teamcaptain seems to come true.

As you can see in my NT race season 11 preview ; I did not even select Daniel Lucas.
He was just the nr5 (or nr4) in my estimated GV percentages and I'm 99% sure his team was not active at that time.
Just the first few races of season 11 his team was active, and I saw that very late in that season that team became active again.
And that team is still active right now.
But at that time not active, and I rather select other cyclists than a low GV silver helper of an in-active team.
Besides this, the one who was just one GV place behind him, had 2 active weather icons.

But also as you can see in my NT race season 10 preview ; Daniel Lucas was 2nd in my estimated GV percentages.
According to me the pure climb situation changed a lot, and even looking at the past and this I mentioned also in the race preview ;
Segovia, Spain ( 68km northwest of Madrid ),
Finally, for the first time Australia has golden pure climbers. Both are 24yo and on a very low position in the golden climb ranking.
And they are just a tiny little bit better than Garza, who was the teamcaptain in the NT mountain races of all previous seasons.
So, Daniel Lucas was never the teamcaptain for Australia, but I guess almost all seasons the nr2 in pure climb and he was always silver.
Garza does have gold, but that golden icon is for flat climb, on pure climb Garza never had gold, in my opinion.
By the way, Daniel Lucas was in my team since CFF 3 started and I sold him 14 months ago.
He can be a good helper and it seems to me you have better options as teamcaptain in this pure climb race of 126 km.

Your NT selection is perfect with the so far 6 selected climbers.
Australia has just these 6 climbers who are "suited" / can try to help in a pure climb race, other Australians are not good enough.
Good luck !
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 10:37:45 AM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2020, 01:33:56 AM »

One of the Australian NT super-TT-team, the 29yo Neill Bell, transfered from Aurora_Australis to SPORTLIFE today.  8)

Aurora-Australis did great on the transfermarket with buying the 19yo Australian supertop-TT-talent Nobby Licuria. Well done, AA.
With just 1 place in my team, my bid on Licuria was even 1,- more than my bid on Bell, but you were smart to bid more.
I guess I'm sponsoring your new youth team with my purchase.  :)
But I'm happy with my new buy and to me a bargain, I did not expect to buy him for my bid. Maybe others overlooked he is 29yo, instead of 30yo.

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2020, 01:58:25 AM »
I'm surprised to hear that you bidded on Licuria.  He wouldn't be worth anything reselling, because I'm the only established team buying 19 year old TTers.  Btw: I only bid the amount I did because I want people to know that I'll pay a good price for top potentials so people will still promote Aussie TTers.

On Bell, his price probably suffered because of my other Aussie TTers.  Given the prices being paid for other 29-30ers, it's a slight bargain, but still not unreasonable.

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2020, 06:24:58 AM »
AUSTRALIAN u21 - Cyclists to note
click on paperclip (attachment) to view.  Btw there's 95 u21 cyclists at the moment.

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2020, 11:24:03 AM »
It seems I made many impuls bids yesterday, not really thought-out and often I surprise myself too on the transfermarket. ;)
Luckily I could buy just one, because I had just 2 places and the scouted 19yo comes first.
Well, now I have one TT cyclist too many and both are just as good. Not really smart in this season with just a few TT stages.
But fun to have (maybe temporarily) a second Aussie in my team. :)

About my high bid on a very good 19yo toptalent, I do that more often and in all kinds of specialties.
Almost always not the highest bid, just bidding along and gamble I will be lucky.
And often not to resell, but as training project, although that will depend on the talent rating also.
Anyway, good he is in your team, because I still have my project of a 23yo climber this season (although he trains stamina right now).
I guess I was one season too soon to try to start another project / or what was also an option in this specific case ;
sell him to you with a netto profit of 1,4 million, because you proved to pay more for him than my bid was.

Thanks for the u21 lists !  8)
I see you pulled John Friess, who has the same high GV as your new buy Nobby Licuria.
Your TT youth team looks already very promising, what can be great for the future of Australia.  :)

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2020, 12:28:59 PM »
Hopefully one of them will have good talent (it makes a difference).  Btw, if you had purchased him, I wouldn't have brought him on a resell, which would have meant a 6mill loss to you because nobody else is buying 19 year old TTers this season, and unless you're specialising in TT, he would have had zero value in a season's time (not that money means that much after 12 seasons).

On today's race, as always, I recheck & refine my selections after the 7am Sunday training session, and it's either Colin Mount or Anthony Garza who'll be leader (neither would be gold in pure climber either).  May have one more young climber (21 yo), or select young cyclists from other specialities.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2020, 04:27:30 PM by Aurora Australis »

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2020, 04:05:40 PM »
If I buy him for 6M it is a loss of 6M ?  ??? ( and if you buy him for 8M it is a good buy ?  ??? ) Good joke.  :))
Sell him to me for 6M, I will prove you are wrong, I like him a lot.
My bid was a good financial investment and / or a good investment in future results.

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #26 on: September 20, 2020, 04:38:09 PM »
Depends on what you would have done with him Vos.  But anyway, I need to go to sleep.

Vos

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2020, 11:43:12 AM »
11º  Colin Mount
Excellent result and most likely the 2nd best Australian result ever in a pure mountain race. Very well done, AA !  8)

Very nice that Australia can score a good amount of points with a climber, probably very needed points at the end of this season.
Next week another similar challenge for you as in the past 2 NT races,
because also in the upcoming sprint race it can be zero points or at best 11th or so when the tactics go very well compared to the rivals.
Good luck AA !

Fun to see that my Miorlin (ITA) finished on the podium. :)
Also an excellent job of the Italian NT manager, because 9 stars Miorlin (never had 10 stars) is the nr 264 in the golden climbers ranking.

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #28 on: September 24, 2020, 11:58:47 AM »
Well I wasn't repeating my mistake from the first race Vos.  Next week will again be heavy weather, however we can try for a surprise and send a few behind the times along the way.  But first:

AUSTRALIAN u20 - Cyclists to note
Fifty-six 19 year olds at time I collected the info.  Click on paperclip (attachment) to view.

Aurora Australis

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Re: Australia NT Season 12
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2020, 03:57:15 PM »
Race 3 

Quote
Selections :
David Dixon   30   LosTxinosKudeiros
Derek Nelson   30   Yvo_Meppelink_ProCycling (leader)
Tony Carter   30   HorsCategorieProTeam
Ryan Pierre   25   Shiro_Lions
Gerard Shields   23   Quickstepbronx
Jasper Blair   22   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Keith Hunter   22   catapunchimpon
Tim Malone   22   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Wilt Frances   22   Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Prospects: Another race where our cyclists are several AV behind.  It just means that we have to make the race work for us.

Results:
8th   Derek Nelson      0: 00"   140 points
« Last Edit: September 30, 2020, 12:45:51 PM by Aurora Australis »