Australia NT Season 15

[Vos]

  AUSTRALIA NT ; SEASON 15 PREVIEW

race 1 hills = HHHHH  175km

race 2 mountains = MMMMM  232km

race 3 sprint = FFFFF  180km

race 4 time trial = FFFFF  35km

race 5 cobblehills = C^C^C^C^C^  160km

race 6 sprint = FFFFF  119km

race 7 flat-cobble = FCFCC  259km

This seems to me a pretty standard season schedule, with of course the exception that there are 2 flat sprint NT races.
The Australian sprint teamcaptain Jasper Blair is happy with that, and for those who do not know who Jasper Blair is : 



Unfortunately these 2 sprint races are flat.
Blair likes sprint races with one hill section and/or little "hidden" hills in flat sections, for example in s5 would be perfect.
But Blair is a top flat sprinter too, although there he has more fierce rivals.
So it is uncertain if he really can compete for the individual world championship. Of course I'm going to try.

About the season goal of Australia ; that is hard to predict in these circumstances of new young top cyclists and (too) old (ex?)top-cyclists.
I guess Australia will do well and can compete for a podiumplace. Hopefully my guess is correct.
Luckily there is just one cobblehills race. In the other 6 races Australia should score enough points.

If Australia will do well this season, that depends for a big part on the 2 sprint races, because sprint tactics can go horribly wrong.
And if there is wind, even a bigger chance that sprint tactics go wrong.
Blair has no weather icon, so hopefully there is no wind, no sun, no cold and no rain in the 2 sprint races. Probably that will not happen.

The final NT race 7 is the monumental classic race Paris Roubaix. It is the first time this race is on the NT calendar.
But we start in the hills of a cold, little bit windy Limburg ( the Netherlands ).
The selection and the preview of this NT race 1 to Belgium will be made later today or tomorrow morning. Possibly the lists too.
Just in case, already the best 4 hills specialists are selected, and also the tactics are made.

Remarkable this season ; for the first time Australia had no candidate, so, many thanks for the zero votes. 
There was just one other country without a candidate ; Russia. But that nation is not known for righteous elections anyway.
I guess I'm the Putin of Australia now, hahahaha.
Also this season ; almost all NT managers are very good and experienced. What makes this Australian Putin-job fun and challenging. 

[Franky]

Topics to discuss:

1. Jasper: For me, even if he is listed a sprint-hills, is better as a sprint-flat than sprint-hills. But honestly, I don't know his true level as I didn't compete with the best yet.

2. Candidates: I don't feel in the mood to be NT manager right now, but is true that we have plenty of experienced managers in Australia, not only VOS and Aurora, also Zatarra, Tourmalet, Antequera, Ophiuko... are good enough to guide us.

3. Old guys: I want to know the rankings, because there are some of my 33yo guys that doesn't have a proper level for First Division, but maybe they are good enough to go as helpers with the NT, and I'm thinking of retire them soon.

[Vos]

My opinion ;

1. Jasper ;
According to me he had much better jndividual world championship chances if there was besides a flat sprint race, also a hill-sprint race.
For example a flat sprint + stage 1 TDU ( or stage 2 PN, or stage 3 CAT, or stage 4 DAU, stage 3 BBT and stage 10 Vuelta ).
Also 2 flat sprint races like stage 4 Tour de France increases his chances a lot due to the many km and above all due to the sneaky hill in s5.
Probably Blair would be thé top favorite for the ind.WC title if there was a better combo as the now 2 flat sprint races.
Not many ( maybe just a few or even none ) top sprinters are so versatile as Blair can be in his perfect combo.
But it is what it is, if I thought he had no chance with these 2 flat sprint races, I would not have written "I'm going to try anyway".
About his true level ; it is possible that this will not be clear after just 1 NT season, often odd things happen in NT sprint races.
Probably you will find out much sooner in 1A ( in the mentioned stages ).

2. Candidates ; I totally agree. And no problem for me to be NT manager, even automatically.
But now I have again all the fun and the honor to race with the best Aussies, and I wish this fun to someone else too.
Well, I was too poor to buy Blair, so this is a great opportunity to race with him. 

3. Old guys ;
I have to look into this. So later today (or tomorrow morning) I will post the lists.
But GV is to me not the only factor to select someone as helper.

As NT manager : my general rule/advise in this "old" situation = when they are of no use to your team, do not look at the Australia NT.
The exceptions can be a teamcaptain in a NT race, or a best helper, or a points scoring cyclist.

This season ; if my memory is right of previous season, in all NT races of this season Australia has enough good young helpers.
With the exception of the cobblehills race, but useless to keep a helper of a teamcaptain that cannot score points there.

Of course I can already asses your 33yo's, Franky. And I just did, and they all are not needed for Australia this season.

Again to everyone with old Australian cyclists ( and this is also my opinion, but I am the Australian NT manager this season ) ;
even when an old cyclist is a bit needed, as 4th helper or so, the interest of your own team is then more important as the NT of Australia.
If you have doubts about firing an Australian, let me know, I can help you to make the right decision.
No teamcaptain, no best helper, no points ; if he does not have one of these 3 criteria, it is ( most likely ) no problem to fire him.
Even in the best interest of Australia, because now you have one more free place in your team to scout an Australian 19yo top talent.

[Aurora Australis]

Absolutely echo Vos on old guys; if they're not either team captain/points scorer, or a primary domestique (1st or 2nd dom), they're not needed for the NT.  When I was manager in season 13, I even chose not to select a few (then) 31 years olds where there were some 23-26 year olds almost as good.
And generally, an old guy who's no longer gold is unlikely to be up to standard for NT any longer.

[Vos]

[Aurora Australis]

Owen isn't good enough for TT this season.  I suspect Mitchum isn't either unless it's hot.  Workman's the only >23 <30 cyclist who's good enough unless weather can suit somebody else (and that's still marginal for those somebody else).  We're about to see a small vacuum in TT until the next group matures.

[Vos]

Yes, I agree with you, AA.
And if confirms my expectations of the TT race, that starts in 3 weeks.
Luckily the TT race comes relatively soon. For example the now high ranked 33yo cobble specialists are not good enough after 6 weeks.

But there is hope, because according to me Australia is not depending heavily on the TT race anymore to finish high in the season ranking.
Although, also in the future we need many TT points too to really compete for the worldchampionship. Rival countries do the same.

In previous season we already had young teamcaptains in almost all races, and they can score a good amount of points. 
The near future (already in season 17) looks very bright, because your amazing TT team is already 22yo.

The u23 Dream Team looks much better as previous season, also in other skills ;

time trial =
1.  Nobby Licuria   Aurora_Australis   22   
3.  Tod Henderson   Aurora_Australis   22   
4.  Kirk Clinton   Aurora_Australis   22
5.  John Friess   La_Vie_Claire   22
6.  Markus Benett   Aurora_Australis   22   
7.  Christian Pocock   Aurora_Australis   22
hills =
6.  Christian Segond   cave   22   
sprint =
8.  Leroy Ablett   lasposturas   22
9.  Ian Hamsten   lasposturas   22   
10.  Anthony Fletcher   lasposturas   22
cobbles =
2.   Marc Huling   CobbleCrushers   22   
tours =
6.  Gilbert Fagan   NervionBike   22
10.  Donovan Baxter   ItaliaCycling   22

[Franky]

Kirk Clinton and Christian Pocock, Manicomicos youth team quality 

[Vos]

RACE 1 : AYWAILLE

6ºC

Heerlen, the Netherlands,
In previous season teamcaptain Shields had an epic failure by finishing 132º. Yes, no writing error, it really was 132º, with 12 EP.
Hopefully this season he gets his revanche, because again he is the teamcaptain.
Despite his epic failure Australia scored a very surprising big amount of points in the hills race of previous season ;
9º Coleman ( helper ), 11º Burton ( free role ) and 16º Jones ( free role ). Burton is retired already.
For many seasons Australia scored just a few points in hills races, and this was possibly the most points ever in a hills race.
So, I should be optimistic about the chances of Australia, of course with the requirement that teamcaptain Shields will do very well this time.

This selection consists of only hills specialists, so that Shield has very good support ánd a few can ride in free roles.
Maybe again very surprising extra points.

The only xp cyclist is the nr 6 ( hills ) of the u23 DT, Christian Segond, who makes his debut despite his extreme low experience.
What is very remarkable because he is riding in a team of only 22yo's, and he is the only one of that team who is in the u23 DT.
Hopefully this debut selection will be an encouragement to his manager, so Segond will get more races in his own team.
There are many Australian young talents who deserve an xp place much more, but to me this is a good opportunity for his debut.

In most other NT races there is more space for xp cyclists. Despite this exception now, for sure a high xp is one of the selection criteria.

Australia NT selection :

Gerard Shields* ( 26 ) Quickstepbronx
Vinnie Coleman ( 32 ) galegospolabici
Zack Walkins ( 26 ) Quickstepbronx
Herbie Fredickson ( 25 ) MarquinaTeam
John Jones ( 33 ) ZG
Tim Morton ( 27 ) Inglourious_Bastards
Royce Henderson ( 33 ) Handest
Stu Beal* ( 33 ) $Tourmalet
- - - - - - - - - -
Christian Segond ( 22 ) cave    ( debut )

[Franky]

and now 3 former Manicomicos Young Team, Shields, Walkins and Fredickson 

[Zatarra]

Nice result, Vos!

Can we see the U21 lists, maybe? I'm curious for the cobble-hillers.

[Vos]

More than excellent result ! 
4º  Shields
18º  Walkins ( helper )
Thanks to his teammates, and especially thanks to Walkins who was still with Shields in section 4. A perfect Quickstepbronx-combo.

Despite this great result ( the best Australian hills result since the 3ºplace in season 3 ) ; less points ( -70 ) than previous season,
because free roles Coleman (69º, last season 9º as helper) and Fredickson (124º) did not do well and dropped already in s2 too far behind.
But really satisfied with this good result of Shields and the good amount of points in a hills race.

Also positive ; current twice-in-a-row-world-champion Great Britain did not had tactics and scored 0 points ( instead of 150 in s14 ).
Carrere ( 33, FRA ) won this hills race, and France is the leader in the season ranking with 340 points.
Australia at the moment 5º with 230 points.

Next week a brutal mountain stage of 232km in the Spanish- and French Pyrenees. Weather forecast = sun and 31ºC

Nice result, Vos!

Can we see the U21 lists, maybe? I'm curious for the cobble-hillers.

Thanks. 
I will make the youth lists tomorrow. I'm curious too, and I need your expertise advice in cobblehills how good the young Aussies can be.
Because cobblehills is the only specialism that is difficult to me to estimate if a young Aussie is good enough to score future NT points.
Handy to know for me, also for possible xp-selections.

[FIO]

Nice pure climber pulled on day one :-)

Ethan Leipheimer   Age : 19   Wage : 565
Stamina : 61   Sprint : 5   Climbing : 67
Flat : 19   Cobblestone : 22   Technique : 65
Downhill : 58   Hills : 47   Aggressiveness : 9
Time Trial : 5   Teamwork : 3   Experience : 0

[Vos]

Australia u21 ( 40 cyclists, including 5x 19yo's )



Australia u22 ( 39x 21yo's, 35x 20yo's, 5x 19yo's )

[Franky]

Wow, this generation of hillers is not too good this time...if the better u21 are mine...xDD. BTW, all of them are on sale, I cant train them propperly