Australia s18

[Vos]

"Hi dear Aussies , a new season starts, here are the Australian lists."

Tomorrow the season 18 preview + the NT race 1 preview and selection.

[ophiuko]

I think you missed Ali Steele for climbing flat. Again 2 cobble hills races, as in the season I was the manager. This time there are 5 24-25 yo, who were 22-23 by then that can make good results..

[Vos]

The GV percentages of climbing-flat in these lists are not the GV for a CFF flatclimb icon / a pure flatclimb race FFFFM without downhill.
The climbing-flat in the Australian lists are for mountain races with 3 or 2 flat sections, such as FFFMM, FFMDM, or even MFFMM.
What is a very big difference in estimated GV compared to a FFFFM race without downhill,
for example the climbing-flat GV in this list gets 16% downhill.
And thé reason why the 23yo golden flatclimb specialist Ali Steele is not in the top15 of this climbing-flat list, his downhill skill is low.

These "standard GV percentages" in the lists are just an rough indication, and is from a CFF2 NT evaluator, also used by the Dutch.
These are not my own estimated GV's, and those would be different for every specific NT race anyway.

Also good to know about these lists ;
cobble-hills = a pure cobblehills race without flat sections that ends in a cobblehills section ( see it as an entire red Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch race ).
climbing-hills = a hillsclimb race without flat sections that ends in a climb section ( see it as a MDHHM race, or something like this ).

[Vos]

As mentioned earlier ; a season 18 preview tomorrow. But I can already react on your post :

Again 2 cobble hills races, as in the season I was the manager.

You are wrong.
When you were the NT manager in season 16 ; Australia had the by far worst season schedule ever with even 3 cobblehills races.
See your opening post of season 16 = https://cyclingforfun.org/smf/index.php?topic=729.msg26572#msg26572

My assesment of "by far worst season schedule ever" is of course also based on the quality of the Australian generation of that specific season.
So, including your remark below :

This time there are 5 24-25 yo, who were 22-23 by then that can make good results..

And including the fact that this was the only season when there was a "TT-gap".
Athough Australia scored more points than I expected in the flat time trial of season 16.
But I read that you were dissapointed with those 410 TT points, what indeed is much lower compared to all other seasons.
Even back in season 2 there were 510 points in the flat time trial ( despite this, Australia was world champion in the first NT season ).
So you have the "doubtfull honor" to be the Australian NT manager with the lowest amount of points in a NT flat time trial race.

In previous season 17 Australia was very lucky with the season schedule ;
together with season 7 the by far two best season schedules Australia ever had.
This season 18 it seems we are not so lucky with for example 2 cobble hills races, but as you already mentioned,
we have some very young, good cobblehills specialists now, and the teamcaptain should score some points if the tactics go well.
In the golden cobblehills ranking ( I filtered out the flat-cobble specialists ) we have now the numbers :
16 + 33 + 38 + 52 + 62 + 76 + 93 + 106 + 108 + 109* + 138 + 158.

This is much and much better than in all previous NT seasons.
Only the nr 109* is an old ( 28yo ) cobblehills specialist.
For many seasons he was the only Aussie with a golden cobblehills icon, and the seasons before him we had zero golden cobblehills cyclists.

So, it is not such a bad season schedule as it normally would have been with 2 cobblehills races.
And I had once a worst season schedule, also with 2 cobblehills races, but somehow Australia achieved a top result in the final ranking.
It must be, because I was 5 times Australian NT manager before and my worst result is 2nd in the final ranking.
Probably the cobblehills races are not bad to Australia anymore.
But unfortunately again a flat sprint race. I would like a sprint race with 1 hills section or little hills in the flat sections much more,
because then the Australian Bullet can show how good he is.
If it is not again a tactical failure in a NT sprint race, what seems to happen a lot to every Australian NT manager, including me.
Anyway, more about the season 18 schedule tomorrow.

[Vos]

NT season 18 calendar =

1.   FHHHH - 202km ( La Fleche Wallone )

2.   MDMDM - 125km ( Grimselpass )

3.   FFFFF - 204km ( Venray )

4.   TT=FFFFF - 34km ( Bellinzona )

5.   FFFHC^ - 134km ( Meudon )

6.   HHFC^C - 153km ( Le Puy-en-Velay )

7.   CCCCC - 259km ( Richmond )

It is difficult to estimate what is possible for Australia this season, it will depend on many still unknown factors.
With this race calendar I expect that some nations are better, and that competing for the world championship is not possible.
Hopefully Australia can battle for a podiumplace, that will be my goal, but I have no idea if this is a realistic goal.

What is not difficult to guess ; the individual world champion will be a cobblehills specialist.
Unfortunately Australia has no top contender to achieve this, because the best Australian is the nr 16 in the cobblehills ranking.
Besides this not top ranking, he seems to me not versatile enough to be excellent in both very different cobblehills races.
Maybe this gives me the opportunity to ride with 2 different teamcaptains in races 5 and 6. But I did not look into this situation yet.

Looking at this race calendar ; it seems to me that NT race 1 is already crucial, because it should be the 2nd best race of Australia.
The by far best race is of course the time trial.
In previous season 17 Australia scored 840 points in NT race 4, the flat time trial. Hopefully this season again so many points.
For race 7 we have a top contender ( nr 7 ), although a few rival countries have better ánd more scoring cyclists in flatcobble races.
The sprint race ? Well, no predictions about that, just the remark that I hope the tactics will go well. Then Australia should score a few points.
Also in the climb race a few points are possible, and probably in both cobblehills races too.

I will post the NT race 1 preview tomorrow, including the NT selection.
Already I looked at that race and 4 hills specialists are selected. The other 5 will be selected tomorrow.

[Vos]

RACE 1 :  Mur de Huy

14ºC

Charleroi, Belgium,
The one stripe of wind can make this hills race very tricky, with a real chance of a tactical failure.
Hopefully my tactical gamble ( every tactical choice is a gamble in this NT race ) will go very well, and if so, then I expect a top result.

For the last places many Australian hills specialists were good enough to be selected, but I can select just 9 and had to make difficult choices.

Australia NT selection :

Gerard Shields ( 29 ) Quickstepbronx
Fergus Emerton ( 25 ) Artxube
Herbie Fredickson ( 28 ) Spitz
Tim Morton ( 30 ) 0X
Christian Segond ( 25 ) Matterhorn
Martin Hunter ( 30 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Natham Davidson ( 25 ) Artxube
Zack Walkins ( 29 ) LaGuardia
Michael Odom ( 24 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team ( debut )

[Franky]

g0 g0 g0 VOS!!! Nice to see Michael Odom in the list 

[Franky]

GERARDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!

[Vos]

1º  Shields  =  victory !
11º  Emerton ("helper")

In s3 it still looked good in the front peleton of 31 ; Shields had help of Segond, Morton and Emerton.

In s4 it seemed to look less good at first, but ....... ;
a break away group of 3, then a chasing group of 3 on 0:06", and then a 2nd chasing group of 9 on 0:12", including teamcaptain Shields.
And best helper Emerton was going too fast, he was one group ahead.
If Emerton used one EP less in s4, no doubt he would be behind Shields, and a half EP does not excist, only with ½ EP he could help in s4.
But I had many back-up-helpers-tactics in this race, including the tactic of 2nd best helper Fredickson,
who dropped on purpose in s3, to save energy for a big jump in s4 in order to try to join his teamcaptain. To my surprise this worked ! 
So, despite the too fast helper Emerton, teamcaptain Shields had the extreme important help in s4 of Fredickson.
And also important ; the 6 cyclists in the front were all isolated ( well, better said 5 cyclists, one of them was an Aussie ).
Only Denmark could have had also a helper in the s4 second chasing group,
but maybe it was a free role or maybe not many EP left or maybe a lack of xp of their 25yo Danish teamcaptain,
because he finished as 6º on 0:09" and was not competing for victory.

In s5 Pinin ( RUS ) had an attack out of the front group and he was solo in the front for a while. He was almost already cheering, but then he was very surprised that Shields suddenly appeared after his fierce attack out of the 2nd chasing group.
So it turned out to be a sprint-deux on the Mur de Huy, and Shields won ! 

The first NT race victory of Gerard Shields ( Quickstepbronx ), in his team and in this FW, used as helper to Valter.

A great Australian start of NT season 18 !
And thanks to the extra 110 points of Emerton, Australia is now 1st in the ranking with already 410 points.

[Vos]

g0 g0 g0 VOS!!! Nice to see Michael Odom in the list 

Thanks 
Michael Odom was lucky to be selected, because he had many (sometimes better) rivals who were also good enough to get a selection.
The decisive factor was that I saw that he never rode for Australia yet, and such a cyclist for sure deserves a debut.
There were even more simular cyclists that are not Australian international yet, but they had an extreme low xp.
So, I prefered to select Odom, also because he is high ranked as pure hills specialist in the CFF golden hills ranking.
For this FW he was less suited, but he did a very good helpers job as young 24yo, by being in the s2 front group of just 49.
Hopefully for Odom there is a pure hills race next season, and if not, at least he is an Australian international now. 

[Vos]

CFF u23 Dream Team =
hills
1. James Bush  ( 22, Antequera )
4. Danny Gill  ( 22, Zatarra )
6. Nate Gailes  ( 22, Cabrasverdes )
cobbles
1. Mannie Hines  ( 22, PerrosPardos )
2. Neil Spiker  ( 22, ChessPower )
climb
5. Walter Muller  ( 22, Orange )


Australia u24 ( 177 cyclists ) :

[ophiuko]

Fantastic victory Vos! Congrats!

[Vos]

Thanks

[horace_vr]

Well done Vos! I still try to understand how you do it, but ... you do it!

How come Bud Mount has over 100 in TT value...? 
And would it be too much to ask what rating and rank my rider Marcus Rodriguez has...? He was (is) an experiment I conducted while I was growing a TT-oriented team.

[Vos]

Thanks 

About the 100+ on TT, that happened before with some TT-specialists of Aurora Australis.
And your question came up back then too. I cannot remember if there was a good answer.
I just checked the Australian NT evaluator, and the TT-GV is a normal total of 100%.
The best answer I have now = 100+ means supergood !

Marcus Rodriguez ( 31, TeaMetal ) --> if he emigrates to Australia, then I can answer your question.
Another option ; you can send his stats to me, and then I can compere him with the Australian TT specialists.
He must be good enough to make it into the Australian TT list, if he was Australian.
CFF has a different flat TT GV as the Australian NT evaluator, but the golden TT ranking is of course also a good indication.
You can see the CFF golden ranking too, and Rodriguez is the nr 21 flat TT specialist of the game.
Under and above him are the 15 Australians of the list ( in my first post of this topic ).