Author Topic: Australia s22  (Read 1112 times)

Vos

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Australia s22
« on: January 14, 2022, 02:52:17 PM »


SEASON 22 PREVIEW :

1.   hills = HHHHH 168km
2.   mountains = MDMDM 125km
3.   sprint = FFFFF 120km
4.   time trial = TT-FFFFF 53km
5.   cobblehills = C^C^C^C^C^ 150km
6.   climbhills = MHHHH 139km
7.   cobbles = CFFCC 230km

A pretty standard season schedule, with the exception of race 6 in Australia.
I did not yet look if we are good in this race 6, but fun to ride Down Under. :)
Australia is 4-times-in-a-row world champion, and with this season schedule, the goal is to make that 5-times-in-a-row.


Vos

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2022, 04:31:56 PM »
RACE 1 :  Mont Brouilly


40ºC

Cusset, central France,
It will be extreme hot in these regions Auvergne - Rhône, where the Beaujolais wines come from.
Unfortunately nobody has an active weather icon, but as Australians, they should cope with the heat well.

With James Bush we have a top contender. Hopefully he rides a good race due to good support of his teammates.
And then it is up the Australian teamcaptain to finish it off on the short, but fierce, Mont Brouilly ( see pictures ).

Australia NT selection :

James Bush ( 26 ) Antequera
Fergus Emerton ( 29 ) Flyvende_hjul
Paddy Friend ( 25 ) $Tourmalet
Gerard Shields ( 33 ) Bikeos
Rob Mitchell ( 24 ) WinterIsComing
Nate Gailes ( 26 ) Elgrand
Herbie Fredickson ( 32 ) Turrones
Danny Gill ( 26 ) ICSluj
Christian Segond ( 29 ) Matterhorn

Vos

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2022, 10:00:43 PM »
Ups, I guess James Bush had a heat stroke and a massive off day.
Despite using in s1 enough EP as a favorite ( nr 2 pure hills of CFF ), very unexpectedly he could not follow the big s1 front peleton of 88.
All other Australians had no surprising start, with as consequence that James Bush was isolated in the 2nd group.
This was just the start of his dramatic race, because the whole race isolated far behind,
and even in section 4 James Bush achieved to be the last Australian ; all his 8 teammates were ahead of him. What seems unreal.

Anyway, with a normal start he would have been in s4 in the wheel of his best helper Emerton, who did great,
and then James Bush probably would have won it, or at least podium. But now far outside the points ; 41º :-[
Emerton saved the honor of Australia by scoring a few points.
17º  Emerton ( "helper" )

After this disastrous start of season 22, next week we go to Switzerland for a stormy mountain race.

Vos

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2022, 01:49:11 PM »


CFF u23 Dream Team =
hills
4. Callum Carpenter  ( 22, Rekutxuteam )
sprint
1. Horace Stamer  ( 22, Sacido )
4. Adrian Janson  ( 22, Sacido )
9. Luke Morse  ( 22, Sacido )
climb
7. Cody Embley  ( 22, Zatarra )
8. Stu Vaughn  ( 22, JGMTeam )


Australia u24 ( 128 cyclists ) :

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2022, 10:35:30 PM »
Already the u20 lists to motivate everyone to scout in Australia. 8)



Australia u20 ( 17 cyclists ) :


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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2022, 06:59:30 PM »
RACE 2 :  Grimselpass

14ºC

Ulrichen, Switzerland,
Australia has a bunch of high ranked, young pure climbers. But there is not a real top competitor among them.
Because none of the Australians is in the CFF top 24 of pure climbers.

And there is storm in this mountain race, what makes it even more challenging and unpredictable.
Zero points or a very good result ; both scenarios might be possible.
Hopefully some Australian points at the finishline on the Grimselpass.

Australia NT selection :

Norm Bush* ( 30 ) HTCHungria
Dudley Iverson ( 31 ) LottoStelvio
Garret Woods ( 24 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Henry Footman ( 26 ) BLOEMENAANDEMITTE
Des Brown ( 26 ) JackyTeam
Barret Ryan ( 25 ) RajenKujen
Barry Carpenter* ( 24 ) LottoGranadier   ( debut )
Ian Abolins ( 25 ) GMV_Cycling
Tyler Edgar ( 25 ) BLOEMENAANDEMITTE

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2022, 10:49:20 PM »
11º    Garret Woods   ( teamcaptain )  0: 47"   LOSRAYOSDELARRY
16º    Norm Bush  ( free role )  1: 01"   HTCHungria

Hmmm, on gut feeling I made the very unexperienced 24yo Woods the teamcaptain, also because he is the highest ranked Australian.
But perhaps I should have trusted more on my own GV estimation of this specific race, and made Bush the teamcaptain.
Although there could be an advantage to this "maybe-teamcaptain-mistake", because in this way probably more points.
Australia scores a total of 170 points, and is the 6th best nation in this race. According to me a very good result.
Also good is that the points were divided more or less equaly among the countries.

Due to the bad race 1, Australia is still low ranked ; 13º with 210 points.
But the countries that finished podium in the ranking of previous season, are also low ranked now ;
the Netherlands has just 40 points more than Australia, and Italy has even 50 points less.
And the current nr 2 Estonia ( 440 ) and nr 3 Belgium ( 400 ) are still close by and within reach of almost every country.
Hungary ( 545 ) is still the number 1, despite that 7 countries ( incl. Australia ) scored more total points in race 2.

We stay in Switzerland, because next week a short sprint race in Bellinzona.
And again a young Australian teamcaptain, the 25yo Jasper Caan, who finished as 5º in the NT sprint race of previous season.

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2022, 11:23:43 PM »


Australia u21 ( 15 x 20yo's  &  24 x 19yo's ) :


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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2022, 08:33:46 PM »


Australia u22 ( 63 cyclists ) :

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2022, 06:22:41 PM »


Australia u23 ( 98 cyclists ) :

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2022, 06:54:58 PM »
RACE 3 :  Bellinzona

12ºC

Bellinzona, south Switzerland,
In 2018 Démare ( FRA ) was the last victor of this TdS sprint stage from Bellinzona to Bellinzona.
But in 2021 van der Poel ( NL, see picture ) proved to be the best sprinter in the Tour de Suisse by winning the only 2 sprint stages.
And in the CFF sprint NT race of previous season, also a Dutchman was the best ; Jacco VanSwieten ( Yvo_Meppelink_ProCycling ).
So, one of my strategic advices to the Australians is ; pay extra attention to the Dutch, especially in the final.

Australia is going full force, due to the 1x wind, what can make this sprint race extra tricky.
Therefore just one place for an xp cylist / very promising talent.
The 22yo sprint-supertoptalent Stamer is not a real xp cyclist, because despite his young age, he is already good enough to be a helper.
With this full force selection of 8 sprinters, Caan has excellent support, ánd it gives me more tactical options, needed, due to the wind.

Australia NT selection :

Jasper Caan ( 25 ) SaulSalinasTeam
Leroy Ablett* ( 29 ) ChronoTony
Ian Hamsten* ( 29 ) Plopsala
Jasper Blair ( 32 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Reggie Milne ( 26 ) Handest
Wilt Frances* ( 32 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Tim Malone ( 32 ) Pantani28
Horace Stamer ( 22 ) Sacido
Stu Vaughn ( 22 ) JGMTeam

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2022, 10:09:57 PM »
  Jasper Caan ( SaulSalinasTeam )
15º  Leroy Ablett ( Vicam )  free role
19º  Ian Hamsten ( Plopsala )  helper

Only the Netherlands ( 1º VanSwieten + 13º + 14º ) and Portugal ( Andre + 11º + 17º ) did better in this sprint race.
Australia did much better (= 135 points better ) than the sprint race of previous season, where only Caan scored points with his 5º place.
Now a nice podiumplace and some extra points, ánd Australia moved up 7 ( ! ) places and now 6º in the season ranking.
And just 195 points behind new leader the Netherlands, they also made a big jump ; from 11º to 1º.

TOP10 season ranking after 3 races =

1    720
2.      640
3.      580
4.      550
5.      535
6.      525
7.      505
8.      450
8.      450
10.    400

Next week a windy time trial of 53 km in France. :)

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #12 on: January 31, 2022, 10:50:10 PM »


Australia u20 ( 27 cyclists ) :


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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2022, 02:22:11 PM »
RACE 4 :  TT Rhône-valley

25ºC

Villié-Morgon, eastern France,
We're back in the same region where we started this season.
NT race 1 was very unlucky, so this is a good opportunity to get revanche in this area.
And as in almost all previous NT seasons, also now the expectations are sky-high in the flat time trial.

Australia NT selection :

Bud Mount ( 30 ) ChronoTony
Tod Henderson ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Nobby Licuria ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Christian Pocock ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Kirk Clinton ( 29 ) Aurora_Australis
Walt Judd ( 30 ) Matterhorn
Jason Duffy ( 30 ) Shiro_Lions
Markus Benett ( 29 ) QuintoYtapa
Jonny Alfier ( 25 ) Aurora_Australis

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Re: Australia s22
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2022, 03:54:47 PM »
Maybe fun to mention who were close to be selected, because the 2nd team of Australia is amazing too. 8)

My selection procedure is not just based on my own GV estimation of this specific windy TT race of 53km, but this has influence too ;
slightly different GV estimations + Aus.evaluator GV + CFF flat-TT ranking + experience + stamina + active weather icons(=*).

About the "teamcaptain" of the 2nd team, Julian Frances ( 32 ),  he even finished as 8º in the NT time trial of previous season.
Instead of selecting him, I rather gamble on the little bit better GV of Benett and the extreme high stamina of Alfier.
But Frances is more experienced than Benett and Alfier, so it is questionable if my gamble will be right.

And there were more selection dilemma's, for example an active weather icon has a big impact,
but none of the 4 Australians with an active weather icon made it into the first team.
Although Cann and Trautemberg were very close to be selected. Unfortunately, I could select just 9.

In bold, the cyclists who I think should be able to score points / finish top 20.
But it would not surprise me if the 34yo Workman* ( 10º previous season ) is still good enough thanks to his xp and active weather icon.
The not so experienced 24yo Johnston* has an extreme high CFF ranking, to CFF he is even the 6th best Australian,
but according to me, his stamina is too low for this windy time trial of 53km.

Although, who knows, all cyclists of this 2nd team might score points if they have a lucky day.
But of course, there are a lot of amazing foreign TT specialists too, so my estimation of 13 Australians in bold, can be too positive.

Australia, 2nd team ;

10. Julian Frances ( 32 ) Bergtoppers
11. Patrick Cann* ( 28 ) Periquitos
12. Eric Armstrong ( 25 ) Aurora_Australis
13. Alex Trautemberg* ( 24 ) Aurora_Australis
14. Kirk Workman* ( 34 ) Aurora_Australis
15. Gilbert Johnston* ( 24 ) catapunchimpon
16. Paul Williams ( 30 ) Gloucester
17. Colin Friend ( 30 ) TeamSerfin
18. Lenny Taylor ( 24 ) Aurora_Australis

I can even make a 3rd Australian team, because these cyclists are very close in GV (of this windy TT 53km) to the 2nd team ;
Billy Janson ( 24, Aurora_Australis ), John Friess ( 29, PORTUGAL2011 ), Andy Duffy ( 30, Bikeos ), Bob Iverson ( 24, catapunchimpon ).
And no problem to select 5 more good cyclists, because Australia has 28 golden flat-TT specialists. 8)