Author Topic: Australia s27  (Read 696 times)

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2022, 11:43:54 PM »
ok, what does Teamclaes have and I don't... ? :o :-\

Luck :P

In my opinion ; extreme luck.  :o
But I'm happy with that, also happy with the TT talents of Horace, because there are 2 more factors besides having luck with pulling =
the very important talent rating  &  the very important how the manager trains his cyclist.
So, it is still unknown who has "it" in the end.
Round 1 ( = luck with pulling ) seems to go to Tomas, and by far.
But the pulling season is not over yet. Let's hope that Horace gets extreme luck as well ( and maybe he has already luck due to TR 5 ).

Good luck to both of you, and greetings from a very satisfied Australian NT manager.  :)

ps ; let me know if one of the high ranked 19yo TT talents have talent rating 5 ( or 4 ), then he might get a precious xp selection.
Although this season there is just 1 xp place left in the next NT race 3 ( there are already 8 selected, incl. 2 xp cyclists ).
Further more there are just many xp places in the final NT race of this season, because in NT races 4, 5, 6 = no space for xp cyclists.

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2022, 12:01:02 AM »
Also to every CFF manager who thinks he has a very promising young Australian ( ages 19 to 23 ) and has a high talent rating ;
Let me know in case he might be good enough to get a precious xp selection.

Of course, all info about stats and talent ratings are kept secret by me.
Also good to know ; there are many young Australian talents who are good enough to deserve an xp selection, there is a lot of competition.
And as I already mentioned in the previous post ; this season there are not many xp places, only in NT races 3 and 7.

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2022, 06:45:17 PM »
RACE 3 : SWISS SPRINT

36ºC

Bellinzona, Switzerland,
Jasper Caan ( AUS ) is one of the top favorites. He won 2 NT sprint races, in s24 and in previous s26.
But there are more top favorites. Especially current world champion VanSwieten ( NED ), who won 5 NT sprint races in his career.
Also Portugal has a top favorite with Andre or Queroz, and also Estonia should have a top favorite with Iljin or Siniorg.

There are more excellent sprinters who can get a victory,
because it is a NT sprint race, and then anything can happen, including surprising results and tactical disasters.
Let's hope the Australian tactics go very well, and that Jasper Caan achieves again a top result or even again a victory.

All 5 Australians who have a gold icon on flat-sprint, are selected.
Added with the debut of silver sprinter Luke Morse, who has the 6th best flat-sprint GV of Australia.
Three places left for xp cyclists =
a 22yo nr 1 in the u23 DT ; the 23yo future flat-cobble teamcaptain ; and a 21yo who is i.m.o. a very promising, amazing toptalent.

Australia NT selection :

Jasper Caan ( 30 ) SaulSalinasTeam
Horace Stamer* ( 27 ) TeamEuroscalt
Adrian Janson ( 27 ) Villavante
Rob Blixter ( 27 ) TeamEuroscalt
Reggie Milne ( 31 ) CaptainOrange
Luke Morse ( 27 ) FaustoScoppi    ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - -
Colin Ronnald ( 21 ) QuintoYtapa    ( debut )
Bob Pernom ( 23 ) PDM_cycling_team
James Crickton ( 22 ) HTCHungria    ( debut )

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2022, 10:07:21 PM »
24º  Jasper Caan  0:21" and zero points.  :(

It went wrong in s3 where Caan and his main helpers dropped out of the front peleton of 61.
What even should not have been a problem,
because I had a fierce s4 attack planned with Caan and masterhelper Stamer ( with active weather icon ).
Instead of making a jump to the s4 front peleton of 50 ( what is still very big ),
the gap even increased with 3 seconds and the supercombo Caan & Stamer stayed in the second group of s4,
even together with a few exhausted Australian helpers who did not drop out of the 2nd group, what is remarkable too.
And extreme weird that they could follow the fierce attack of Caan & Stamer, both have a much better GV ánd a big EP effort difference,
on top of that, Caan had extra captain bonus and Stamer had extra weather bonus, and both have a superhigh CFF ranking.
Also superweird that Stamer ( with energy in s5 to launch Caan hard ) finished in the same time as the other 4 Australian helpers.

Something fishy in this stage. I checked the tactics several times, nothing wrong with that.
But if I see how the race went, it looked like that I used more than 12 EP already in s4.
Well, a bit exaggerated, because using more than 12 EP in NT races causes a superdrop of many groups behind.
I don't mind losing, that is part of the game, but in this incrompehensible way is not nice and dissapointing.
Well, it beats another superbad sprint race of the past, also without wind, back then also a top favorite and he finished outside top100.
But he had a bad s1 start, now the start was good, all 6 Australian sprinters could follow in s1 + s2.

Anyway, my "dream" of scoring a hat trick of NT victories is shattered now,  ;D
and my other estimations of this sprint race came true ; the 3 mentioned top favorites finished in the top 4.
The only country that failed with a top favorite was Australia, that dropped just 2 places in the season ranking :

TOP 10 after 3 races =
1.   1070
2.   870
3.   625 
4.   600
5.   545
6.   460
7.   450
8.   430
9.   400
10.   310

Next week a stormy time trial in Zaragoza, Spain.
France, Germany and Portugal have the top 3 flat-TT in the CFF ranking.
But as you can see, these 3 nations are not yet in the season ranking top 10.
It could become an interesting season for many nations, after the NT sprint race failure of 13 times world champion Australia.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2022, 10:59:21 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2022, 10:24:09 AM »


Australia u20 ( 59 cyclists ) :



Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2022, 11:50:46 PM »
RACE 4 :  TT Zaragoza

23ºC

D.O.Cariñena, Spain,
There are 3 mutations compared to the NT time trial ( 53 km ) of previous season.
The now 34yo's of AA are not good enough anymore to finish top 20, they are replaced by 3 young Aussies.
Although it is very doubtfull if they can score points due to their low experience.

The other 6 selected TT specialists scored points in previous season, and hopefully they do that again.
Jonny Alfier was the best with a 4º place, and I expect that he will be again the best Australian with again such a top result.

Australia NT selection :

Jonny Alfier ( 30 ) Innioraths
Lenny Taylor ( 29 ) RHyNeStOnEs
Gilbert Johnston* ( 29 ) Wiggo_pupils
Billy Janson ( 29 ) OphiukoCT
Alex Trautemberg* ( 29 ) ChampsElysees
Eric Armstrong ( 30 ) TTeam
Sammy Alfier ( 24 ) Facha_Bartolo
Maurice Hunter ( 25 ) SPORTLIFE
Rick Herd ( 24 ) SPORTLIFE
« Last Edit: October 09, 2022, 03:55:21 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2022, 11:34:42 AM »
Results NT race 4, the stormy flat TT of 52 km in Zaragoza ( between ( s26= .. ) the NT TT result of previous season what was 1 km longer ) :

1    Jonny Alfier      30   0: 00"   300      Innioraths  --> victory !  ( s26= 4º )
2    Gregor Arzdorf      28   0: 00"   250      JGMTeam 
3    Harz Muff      28   0: 10"   225      Quickstepbronx
4    Lenny Taylor      29   0: 11"   200      RHyNeStOnEs   ( s26= 9º )
5    Fabien Gallas      28   0: 12"   180      Thorboassonarvesen
6    Stu Harris      27   0: 12"   160      Wizards
7    Job Hals      28   0: 14"   150      Yvo_Meppelink_ProCycling
8    Alex Trautemberg*      29   0: 15"   140      ChampsElysees  --> with mechanical breakdown in s2.  ( s26= 19º )
9    Billy Janson      29   0: 15"   130      OphiukoCT   ( s26= 14º )
10    Manuel Enrique Porras      28   0: 17"   120      TeamSerfin
11    Gilbert Johnston*      29   0: 17"   110      Wiggo_pupils  --> with mechanical breakdown in s2.  ( s26= 18º )
12    Mirko DiLuca      29   0: 17"   100      catapunchimpon
13    Anders Vikan      28   0: 18"   90      CobbleCrushers
14    Erik Kõuts      24   0: 19"   80      Stuttgarter
15    Claudio Russo      24   0: 20"   70      Sonfuga
16    Eric Armstrong      30   0: 21"   60      TTeam   ( s26= 6º )
17    Stefan Lievens      26   0: 21"   40      ChampsElysees
18    Ethan Payne      27   0: 21"   30      Facha_Bartolo
19    Bela Stepanov      24   0: 21"   20      El_Realidad
20    Pedro Jose Lamas      28   0: 22"   10      galegospolabici
- - - - - - - - - - -
24    Maurice Hunter      25   0: 24"   0      SPORTLIFE
28    Sammy Alfier      24   0: 25"   0      Facha_Bartolo
56    Rick Herd      24   0: 35"   0      SPORTLIFE

Too bad that the 2 Australians with an active weather icon*, both got a mechanical breakdown.
None of the foreign top TT specialists had this bad luck, with the exception of Dixon ( GB ) who finished as 22º.
But of course, I'm very happy with this great victory, excellent other results, and the total of 940 points in this time trial.  :)  8)

And good to point out that these Australian results are higher as expected,
because Portugal did not had a NT selection, and they have the nrs 3( ! ), 6( ! ), 17 and 21 in the flat-TT ranking of CFF.
Russia had no selection too, but that did not matter to these NT results, because Russia has no possible-points-scoring TT specialist.

Maurice Hunter and Sammy Alfier almost scored points despite their very low experience.
And it seems that Rick Herd had a very unlucky race, and/or it shows that experience is very important,
because he has 13 xp less as Sammy Alfier and 17 xp less as Maurice Hunter.
And Rick Herd is higher in the CFF ranking than Maurice Hunter and the points scoring Eric Armstrong.
Besides this, Rick Herd had the 3rd best stamina of this selection.

Well, next in line to be selected ( instead of Rick Herd ) were for sure the 34yo's of Aurora Australis ; Tod Henderson and Nobby Licuria.
But looking at these results + their race GV + their experience, my estimation was correct ;
They were not good enough anymore to score points.
For example nr 16 Eric Armstrong has a much better race GV, he has also 100 xp, and barely made it into the top 20.
And nice to see that since today, the 34yo's former amazing TT specialists of AA are now very proudly in his impressive hall of fame.

Australia is the new leader in the season ranking.  8)
Top 10 after 4 races ( incl. 3 NT victories of Australia ! ! ! ) =

1.     1.540   
2.     1.200
3.      950
4.      715
5.      650
6.      600
7.      590
8.      545
9.      525
10     470

Next week we are going to a rainy Belgium,
where the many excellent Australian cobblehills-specialists will battle on the exact same track as Dwars door Vlaanderen.
It might be a very important race for a possible Australian world championship, because almost no points are expected in NT race 7,
and it is very uncertain how all nations will do in NT race 6, the climb sprint, that was never before a NT race.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2022, 11:45:20 AM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2022, 11:41:42 PM »
RACE 5 : Dwars door Vlaanderen

21ºC

Roeselare, Belgium,
Australia has a strong selection, what is shown in simular NT cobblehills races of s23 ( 4º, 16º ), s24 ( 4º, 11º ) and s25 ( 3º Lucas ).
In previous s26 there was even a victory and many extra points ( 1º Ablett, 12º, 13º, 14º ),
but the track was the Ronde van Vlaanderen, what has a different race GV than a NT race with a cobblehills section 5.

In this NT race 5 ( Dwars door Vlaanderen ) it should be possible to battle for a podiumplace again, if the tactics go very well.
It is not clear yet who the teamcaptain will be,
because according to me, the top ranked Lucas ( nr 3 ) and Ablett ( nr 11 ) have the same DDV race GV.

The expectations should be high, but main rival Spain has top ranked cobblehills specialists too ( nrs 6, 9, 10 ).
It will be an exciting NT race 5, also because Spain is better than Australia in NT race 7 on the flat cobblestones.
And in climbsprint NT race 6, it is impossible for me what to expect,
probably I should assume that Spain as biggest CFF nation can score more points than Australia in NT race 6.
If so, it makes it even more important to try to score more points than Spain in this upcoming NT race 5.
And with still 3 NT races to go, maybe another nation will be a fierce rival too in the battle for the world championship.

Australia NT selection :

Dylan Lucas ( 32 ) JGMTeam
Alex Ablett ( 26 ) Aspigarri
Mannie Hines ( 31 ) Villavante
Nick Thompson ( 33 ) TeaMetal
Neil Spiker ( 31 ) CaptainOrange
Norman Pocock ( 28 ) Flandria
Noel Marbley ( 31 ) Wiggo_pupils
Kenneth Jackson ( 26 ) Astanadena   ( debut )
Andrew Morse ( 23 ) Plopsala
« Last Edit: October 12, 2022, 09:58:42 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2022, 10:37:23 PM »
Despite using EP, it went horribly wrong in section 1 ; teamcaptain Lucas and helper Hines could not follow the front peleton of 71 cyclists.
Lucas never returned and even was once isolated in s3, but in s4 he met 2 helpers who dropped out of the front group.
In the end Lucas scored some points, but the huge damage was already done in s1 and it was a dissapointing race & result.

All 7 other Australians had no problem to follow, and all were even still in the s3 front group of 46 cyclists.
Including free roles Ablett and Thompson, who had to save the honor of Australia after the very unlucky start of Lucas.
In s4 ; Ablett was in the breakaway group of just 8, and Thompson in the 2nd group of 20 cyclists on 0:10"
Unfortunately Thompson did not make it into the final top 20, but Ablett scored a good result in a free role.

Results NT race 5 =
  Ablett ( free role )   0:13"
14º  Lucas   0:20"  :-[
= a total of 210 points ( 5th in the day race ranking )

Main rival Spain won this race, but had no other cyclists in the top 20.
But with 300 points for the victory, Spain comes 90 points closer in the season ranking.
The nr 3 in the season ranking, Estonia, scored the most points in this race ; 310. But the top 4 is still the same as before this race 5.

Top 10 after 5 races =

1.     1.750   
2.     1.500
3.     1.260
4.      895
5.      850
6.      790
7.      750
8.      710
9.      555
10     550

Next week we go back to Switzerland for a climbsprint race from Aubonne to Genève.
Anything can happen in this NT race 6 ; Australia has just a lead of 250 points now, ánd is not good on the flat cobblestones in NT race 7.
And Estonia is 490 points behind, and might be a fierce rival too, if it does well in NT race 6,
because there is top ranked 23yo Estonian flat-cobble specialist ( already on nr 8 now, and in 2 weeks even higher ranked ).
And who knows, maybe a nation outside the top 3 will be the world champion if they have 2 amazing final races.
Especially the nations with top flat-cobble specialists might still have a chance ( if the current top 3 score not many points in NT race 6 ).

Earlier this week I already had a quick look if Australia has suited cyclists for NT race 6,
and there are a few, but most likely not top contenders. Hopefully I'm wrong, and more about this in the NT race 6 preview.
The good news is that we have still a lead, so there is always a hope that the points will be divided in a beneficial way for Australia.
For sure Australian points are needed in NT race 6, because the current total of 1.750 is not enough to become world champion.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2022, 10:51:02 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2022, 01:09:36 PM »
RACE 6 : SWISS CLIMBSPRINT

6ºC

Aubonne, Switzerland,
I'm not impressed by the quality of Australia in this NT race 6.
Hopefully some Australian points, and also important, hopefully the rival nations do not score many points.

Australia NT selection :

Emerson Janson ( 30 ) Spitz
Stu Vaughn ( 27 ) JGMTeam
Tim Finals ( 32 ) BLOEMENAANDEMITTE    ( debut )
Zack Dix ( 28 ) BigPharma    ( debut )
Phil Robinson ( 30 ) Innioraths    ( debut )
Clive Emme ( 28 ) Campionissimi    ( debut )
Elton Fevola ( 32 ) Bikeos
Rick Pierre ( 24 ) Kalenjicycling
Alistair Chapman ( 31 ) Xegalaki_Pro    ( debut )
« Last Edit: October 23, 2022, 01:00:13 PM by Vos »

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2022, 12:59:35 AM »
10º  Emerson Janson ( 30, Spitz )   0:00"
13º  Elton Fevola ( 32, Bikeos )   0:24"

Good results considering the quality, and a pretty decent total amount of 210 points ( 7th in the day race ranking ).
But the by far most positive aspect :) of this NT race = thé rival countries Spain and Estonia did not score points. 

Top 10 with 1 more race to go =

1.     1.960   
2.     1.500
3.     1.260
4.     1.110
5.      960
6.      940
7.      910
8.      895
9.      735
10     710

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2022, 01:43:51 AM »
About the individual world championship NT jersey ;

Weeks ago I looked at this situation, in case there would be the expected 7 numbers 1 with all an equal amount of 300 points.
Then the one who has the most NT races on his palmares, wins that prestigous NT jersey.

After NT race 3 it was already clear that this NT jersey could not be won by one of the 3 Australian NT race winners of this season.
Unfortunately also not with extra NT selections, because NT race 3 winner Janno Iljin ( EST ) has way too many NT races on his palmares.

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #27 on: October 24, 2022, 06:14:38 PM »
RACE 7 : SWISS COBBLESTONES

14ºC

Fribourg, Switzerland,
For the final race, Australia has the youngest selection of this season, with even a just 23yo teamcaptain.
All 5 golden flatcobble specialists are selected, and the last 4 places are for xp cyclists.

Australia NT selection :

Bob Pernom ( 23 ) PDM_cycling_team
Gilbert Ray ( 24 ) Thorboassonarvesen
Markus Harris ( 23 ) PDM_cycling_team    ( debut )
Dave Adams ( 23 ) PDM_cycling_team KASTORAMA    ( debut )
Trevor Rooney ( 26 ) ROCKYBALBOARACING
- - - - - - - - -
Colin Ronnald ( 21 ) QuintoYtapa
Emerson Brown ( 21 ) Agua_Verde    ( debut )
Zack Harris ( 19 ) Teamclaes    ( debut )
Bruce Hunter ( 21 ) QuintoYtapa    ( debut )

edit ; Dave Adams is sold to KASTORAMA on the 26th of October.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2022, 09:50:41 AM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2022, 09:21:47 AM »
NT race 7 ;
10º    Bob Pernom ( 23, PDM_cycling_team )   0: 17"   
Remarkable ; 3x 23yo's in the top 10 of this race.


For the 10th time in a row ;

Australia = world champion !

And even with 3 NT victories ;
NT race 1 = James Bush ( 31, Kelme4ever )
NT race 2 = Stu Vaughn ( 27, JGMTeam )
NT race 4 = Jonny Alfier ( 30, Innioraths )

A big thanks to all managers with Australian top cyclists, who made this 14th ( ! ) Australian world championship possible !  8)

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Re: Australia s27
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2022, 09:47:48 AM »
updated ;
:) TOP 18 ranking of most points per season : 

1.    ( ophiuko ) season 25 with 3.700 points ( incl. 2.060 TT points ; this season had 2 flat TT races, both not won but 2x 3rd as best TT results ).
2.    ( Vos ) season 21 with 2.580 points ( NT-schedule = hills, climb, sprint, flat-TT, cobblehills, hillsclimb, flat-cobbles ).
3.    ( Aurora Australis ) season 7 with 2.570 points ( incl. 2.000 TT points ; this season had 2 flat TT races, won by Levin and Trump ).
4.    ( Vos ) season 18 with 2.525 points.
5.    ( Aurora Australis ) season 20 with 2.420 points.
6.    ( Aurora Australis ) season 23 with 2.415 points.
7.    season 14 with 2.325 points.
8.    ( Vos ) season 22 with 2.320 points.
9.    ( ophiuko ) season 26 with 2.290 points.
10. ( Vos ) season 24 with 2.220 points.
11. ( Aurora Australis ) season 19 with 2.155 points.
12. season 10 with 2.155 points.
13. season 13 with 2.140 points.
14. ( Vos ) season 27 with 2.080 points.
15. season 6 with 2.060 points.
16. season 22, as number 2, with 2.055 points.
17. season 4 with 2.045 points.
18. season 13, as number 2, with 2.005 points.