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English Cff Forum => General Forum => Topic started by: ophiuko on February 05, 2021, 12:40:54 AM

Title: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 05, 2021, 12:40:54 AM
Deadline to send forecasts for winners of season 15 is open now. This season, I've introduced some minor changes:

-The National Teams variable stage (stage 6)
-Winner team of 1a classification

Also, I've included a poll to know the opinion about future changes in this game. It will be active for the whole season.

Races are the following:

Strade Bianche
Paris Nice
Milano Sanremo
Volta Catalunya
Gent Wevelgem
De Ronde van Vlaanderen
Paris Roubaix
Amstel Gold Race
Flèche Wallonne
Liège–Bastogne–Liège
Eschborn-Frankfurt
Giro d'Italia
Dauphine
National Teams Race 6
Tour de France
Clásica San Sebastián
La Vuelta
Giro Lombardia
Salzburgo TT WC
Lisboa WC
Golden bike (cyclist with highest points in 1st division)
1a Winner Team

Score:
1 point for each winner guessed, Classic A category, World championships, NT race, Golden Bike and 1a Winner Team
2 points for the winners guessed, Small Tour
3,2,1 points for the guessed Podiums of the 3 great Tour + 0.5 points to guess a podium in a different position.

This season the forecasts will be private again. Whoever wants to participate must send me a private message in forum, game or chat, indicating winners and podiums of the races in the list. Deadline will be on 10th February 2021 at 23:59, CFF time, just the night before Strade. All the forecasts will be posted on the next day.

The prize for the winner will be 1 month of supporter in the game, same as past seasons.

All users can participate, but the races indicated are exclusively for riders of the first division.
The maximum achievable points are 40.
The 1-day classic, category A:
- Fixed (9): Milano Sanremo, Gent Wevelgem, De Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris Roubaix, Amstel Gold Race, Flèche Wallonne, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, Clasica San Sebastian, Giro Lombardia
- (2) variables, random for each year, of the remaining not cited classic
- The 2 Cycling world championships (of CFF3)
- Golden Bike (1)
- The winner team of 1a classification
- The variable stage of NT races (stage 6)
- (3) variables, random for each year, of the remaining small tour
The PODIUM of:
- the 3 Great Tours

Copy-paste:

Strade Bianche:
Paris Nice:
Milano Sanremo:
Volta Catalunya:
Gent Wevelgem:
De Ronde van Vlaanderen:
Paris Roubaix:
Amstel Gold Race:
Flèche Wallonne:
Liège–Bastogne–Liège:
Eschborn-Frankfurt:
Giro d'Italia - 1º:   2º:   3º:
Dauphine:
NT race 6:
Tour de France - 1º:   2º:   3º:
Clasica San Sebastian:
La Vuelta - 1º:   2º:   3º:
Giro Lombardia:     
Salzburgo TT WC:
Lisboa WC:
Golden bike:
1a Winner Team:
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 10, 2021, 10:03:07 AM
Just a reminder that tonight is the deadline
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 11, 2021, 12:27:11 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/564826389765816343/809203437601947680/unknown.png)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 11, 2021, 12:48:46 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1283379575007969281/fMzD1vdV_400x400.png)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Bart Jackson
⭐⭐⭐ Kyril Vandenbergh
⭐ Jacobo Capilla
⭐ Yannick Pierre
⭐ Daemon Robert
⭐ Spodris Martisons
⭐ Leonid Leonov


(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Logo_Paris-Nice_plain.svg)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Lazare Pires
⭐⭐ Rene Vrijmoed
⭐ Sergey Rodionov
⭐ Aksel Blix
⭐ Harry Tjoens

(https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/tropela/media/public/races/milan_sanremo_logo_laukia.png)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Ramon Antonio Vigo
⭐ Lauris Freivalds
⭐ Mees Eerdmans
⭐ Vince Palmer
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on February 13, 2021, 01:53:50 PM
Strade Bianche winner = 1    Madars Grundulis      25   JGMTeam
Nobody predicted him.
And it seems that just 2 CFF managers ( JGMTeam and Sportlife :) ) can score the first point in the Prediction Race.
Because only 1 of the 3 predicted GC contenders who are riding in Paris Nice, has a chance that he can win the GC.
Of course, there is also a big chance that everyone will remain on zero points, because nobody predicted Figueras.

(https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/img/logos/df924f77f10929a2904cfb2e4b350056.png)  GC after 4 stages :

1    Alessandro Figueras   32   RemcoEvenpoelckx   0: 00"   
2⭐⭐Rene Vrijmoed   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 34"   
3    Brent Holmquist   28   FaltososDeChigre   0: 47"   
- - - - - - - - - -
9⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Lazare Pires   28   FrançaiseDesJeux   1: 23"
46⭐Harry Tjoens   33   RealMurciaCycling   3: 48"
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on February 13, 2021, 08:04:28 PM
Paris Nice winner = 1    Alessandro Figueras   32   RemcoEvenpoelckx   
Nobody predicted him.
After 1 race and 1 tour, the Prediction Race has a "thrilling" start : everyone enjoys the scenery and takes it easy with zero points.  :)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 15, 2021, 07:57:04 PM
(https://www.voltacatalunya.cat/img/dyn/event/1@2x.png)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rene Vrijmoed
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Lazare Pires
⭐⭐ Alessandro Figueras
⭐ Espen Valgren

(https://www.gent-wevelgem.be/sites/default/files/styles/koers_logo/public/images/LOGO_gent-wevelgem-7racesinflandersfields_CMYK.png?itok=QZW7qoEV)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Yannick Pierre
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Spodris Martisons
⭐⭐⭐ Jesus Salvador Jerez
⭐ Bruno Mazzarelli

(https://www.rondevanvlaanderen.be/sites/default/files/styles/koers_logo/public/images/RVV_LOGO_CMYK.png?itok=T0cJfGkP)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leonid Leonov
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ John Aakre
⭐ Spodris Martisons
⭐ Biel Jaen
⭐ Karin Narshawov
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 17, 2021, 10:08:03 AM
MSR update:

OphiukoCT 1

 :P
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 20, 2021, 12:18:08 PM
Gent-Wevelgem update:

OphiukoCT 3
Sportlife 2
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 21, 2021, 12:42:47 PM
De Ronde van Vlaanderen:

OphiukoCT 3
Sportlife 2
ZG 1

This is probably the poorest season beginning for this prediction game ever
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Sjiz on February 21, 2021, 04:18:33 PM
Haha, yes indeed. Not many points scored.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on February 23, 2021, 10:06:00 PM
My best start ever in the Prediction Race, not in points, but in ranking.
The predictitions of the current top 3 in the upcoming PR, AGR, FW, LBL :

3 points - Ophiuko = Friend, Valter, Verbeek, Pinin.
2 points - Sportlife = Brady, Caldeira, Valter, Valter.
1 point - ZG = Pandolfi*, Valter, Valter, Valter. ( *Pandolfi is of his own team, good luck in Paris Roubaix, ZG ! )

0 points = all others, and it is possible that one of them will be the new leader after these 4 classic races.

Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on February 24, 2021, 10:22:30 AM
( *Pandolfi is of his own team, good luck in Paris Roubaix, ZG ! )
Great victory of Pandolfi in l'inferno del nord ! Congratulazioni, ZG !  8)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 25, 2021, 10:01:24 PM
Ardennes:

1. ZG 5
2. Ophiuko CT 4
    Sportlife 4
4. Cabrasverdes 3
    TeamEuroscalt 3
6. Villavante 2
    MarquinaTeam 2
    Bikeos 2
    °Peachy°Melocotons 2
10. JGMTeam 1
      Azerite 1
      RealMurciaCycling 1
      Mlb 1
      LottoStelvio 1
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on February 25, 2021, 10:34:30 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/931115302179557378/6CDi5u97_400x400.jpg)
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Mazim Pugovkin
⭐⭐⭐ Zsombor Endrõdi
⭐⭐⭐ Telmo Avila
⭐ Bendeguz Csecs
⭐ Aleksandr Menke
⭐ Afonso Rio (not in 1a)


(https://is1-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Purple114/v4/cc/ab/55/ccab559a-8b02-1666-f327-4f5eb3095a02/source/256x256bb.jpg)
⭐⭐⭐⭐ 2º 2º 2º Aksel Blix
⭐⭐ 2º 2º 2º 3º 3º 3º Oscar Marcos
2º 2º Yvo VanStraalen
Espen Valgren
Nathan Lust
⭐ Lazare Pires
⭐ John Footman
⭐ David Manuel Piñeiro
⭐ Callum Dardar
⭐ Rick Zuiverloon
August Thoelen
Sergey Rodionov
Alexey Ryazanov
Tjerk Tusveld
Rafael Carlos Loinaz
Murat Aeschliman
Richard Rogers
Adam Zipp
Kevin Bush
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 03, 2021, 01:50:11 PM
(https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/img/logos/28b1bdb46a7fe0ef3bc71ce3defe3266.png) winner = ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Mazim Pugovkin ( 29, IKIBASQUE )
( right predicted by ZG, Mlb, TeamEuroscalt, Bikeos and Sportlife )

update Prediction Race :

1. ZG  6
2. Sportlife  5
3. Ophiuko CT  4
    TeamEuroscalt  4
5. Cabrasverdes  3
    Bikeos  3
7. Villavante  2
    MarquinaTeam  2
    Mlb  2
   °Peachy°Melocotons  2
11. JGMTeam  1
      Azerite  1
      RealMurciaCycling  1
      LottoStelvio  1

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Giro d'Italia :
My predicted numbers 1 and 2 of the Giro are not even riding this big tour.
Maybe I can score 1 point ( or a ½ point ) with Marcos, now 2nd, and I predicted him as 3rd.

Thoelen is the current GC leader halfway the Giro.
Nobody predicted him as winner, and just OphiukoCT (as 2nd) and LottoStelvio (as 3rd) predicted him as podium candidate.
I predicted Thoelen as 3rd in the Tour de France, and it is already sure (due to TC bonus) that it will be another wrong prediction of mine.

Leader ZG(1º) also has 2 Giro predictions who are not competing, only his predicted Giro winner is selected and at the moment 10th GC.
OphiukoCT(3º) his Giro predictions look good at the moment. Maybe a perfect score of 6 points if the GC changes in the 2nd half of the Giro.
TeamEuroscalt(3º) has now the right predicted nr 2, but his predicted Giro winner is not competing and his predicted nr 3 is 17th GC.
LottoStelvio(11º) can score 3 points if Marcos is 2nd and Thoelen 3rd, and also he has a predicted Giro winner who is not competing.
Other participants can score points too, and maybe this Giro will cause a big change in the ranking. I'm curious.  :)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 03, 2021, 10:13:14 PM
Thanks for the update Vos  ;) Indeed the Giro GC is looking good for my predictions. I don't know how it will end but there are good chances of guessing the correct podium (probably in different order), which would be a great achievement...

BUT not the first time happening. In previous seasons, others have guessed the correct podium of a GT:

Season 12: JGMTeam (1 exact position and 2 switched) and RealMurciaCycling (all in different order) guessed the full podium of La Vuelta
Season 11: JGMTeam, OphiukoCT and Sportlife guessed the full podium of Giro d'Italia (1 exact position and 2 switched)
Season 10: Flyvende_hjul guessed the full podium of Giro d'Italia (all of them in different order)

No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 04, 2021, 02:34:06 PM
No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?
Predictions OphiukoCT = 1. Marcos ; 2. Thoelen ; 3. VanStraalen

Giro TOP 5 GC after 7 stages ( green= exact prediction, red= needs to move up one place for the very first perfect score in a big tour ) :

1    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 00"
2    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 19"   
3    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   0: 20"
4    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   0: 54"
5    Alexander Castilla   26   Innioraths   1: 47"
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 04, 2021, 09:03:07 PM
I will make it exciting for you, Ophiuko, at the moment you are just 7 seconds apart from a historic perfect score in a big tour.  8)  :))

No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?
Predictions OphiukoCT = 1. Marcos ; 2. Thoelen ; 3. VanStraalen

Giro TOP 5 GC after 8 stages ( green= exact prediction, brown= both need to switch places for the very first perfect score in a big tour ) :

1    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 00"   
2    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 07"
3    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   1: 01"   
4    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   1: 04"   
5    Nathan Lust   29   FaltososDeChigre   2: 06"
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 04, 2021, 11:21:29 PM
Hahaha I rather be excited with winning the Giro instead of the predictions. It looks like everything will be decided tonight at the hills sprint, as in the last stage the downhill finish will probably make the GC contenders cross the line in the same group (unless someone mistakes the mountain S4 with S5, which happened before haha).
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 05, 2021, 12:15:08 PM
Ok, then I better mention that your sprinter Dias is doing great in the Giro with victories in stages 1 and 9.  8) 
Remarkable that your team is 4th in the 2nd division, that is a top ranking for a team with 14x u21 cyclists.

And funny to mention the Giro TOP 7 GC after 9 stages, because as it looks now, it will be a historic perfect score of you :  :)

1    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 00"   
2    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 30"   
3    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   1: 31"
4    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   1: 34"   
5    Nathan Lust   29   FaltososDeChigre   1: 36"   
6    Espen Valgren   28   SentinelChickens   1: 58"
7    Sam Lee   33   $Tourmalet   3: 00"   

Of course, still one more stage to go,
and although I agree with you that most likely this stage 10 will not change anything, you never now what will happen.
This stage 10 scenario would be perfect to me :)) ; Thoelen finishes 0:31" ahead of Marcos, and VanStraalen drops one GC place.
What means just 1 point for you, instead of 6 points for a perfect score.
And it is already certain that I will score a ½ point in this Giro, what is enough to stay ahead of you :P, if you score just 1 point.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 05, 2021, 07:17:59 PM
Giro d'Italia:

1.  Ophiuko CT 10
2.  ZG 6
3.  Sportlife 5.5
4.  Mlb 5
5.  Team Euroscalt 4.5
6.  Bikeos 4
7.  Cabrasverdes 3.5
8.  Villavante 2.5
     MarquinaTeam 2.5
10. LottoStelvio 2
      °Peachy°Melocotons 2
12. RealMurciaCycling 1.5
13. JGMTeam 1
      Azerite 1

If I win this season, I won't be participating the next one. Either that or another person takes over the prediction game.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 05, 2021, 11:00:24 PM
Not cheering for your perfect Giro prediction, but instead this announcement.
I assume it has nothing to do with my effort to make this more fun and interesting, and very well predicted, you have a good lead now.
Maybe you were not cheering, because you expect that I will pass you just before the finishline at the end of this season. ;)
Of course all respect to your announcement, and thanks + respect for organising this for many seasons. 8)
For sure appreciated by me.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 06, 2021, 11:48:38 AM
I help you a bit, Ophiuko. If this will be the last season, we better enjoy it. :)

(https://www.worldcyclingstats.com/img/logos/191b5bdfdfade94930708639639a8727.png)  Favorites Prediction Race =
⭐⭐⭐  Noel Gatson
⭐⭐  Raino Laine
⭐  Rene Vrijmoed
⭐  Todd Power
⭐  Norman Coy

Not competing =
⭐⭐⭐  Lazare Pires  ( his team made no Dauphiné selection )
⭐  Sergey Rodionov  ( his team made no Dauphiné selection )
⭐  Alex Riss  ( 2nd division )
⭐  Alexey Ryazanov  ( not selected )
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 06, 2021, 07:24:23 PM
Not cheering for your perfect Giro prediction, but instead this announcement.
I assume it has nothing to do with my effort to make this more fun and interesting, and very well predicted, you have a good lead now.
Maybe you were not cheering, because you expect that I will pass you just before the finishline at the end of this season. ;)
Of course all respect to your announcement, and thanks + respect for organising this for many seasons. 8)
For sure appreciated by me.

Your help is very much appreciated Vos. Of course I'm happy after guessing the exact podium. But I already won last season, and so much winning from the organizer doesn't look good. I guess that the excel lists that I make for every tour must help for my predictions, I selected Thoelen and VanStraalen for the Giro because their coefficient was higher than others. But still, if the same manager wins everytime, the game losses interest. Anyway, the season is not finished, let's see first what is happening.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 06, 2021, 07:28:37 PM
I help you a bit, Ophiuko. If this will be the last season, we better enjoy it. :)

I didn't see this. I didn't mean this will be the last season of the game, it's just that if I win, next season I won't be participating but I will still organize it. It's almost no effort for me to organize this, as I have set an excel sheet to count all the points automatically. I just have to spend 30 min at the beginning of the season writing all the predictions received.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 07, 2021, 03:19:50 PM
I didn't mean this will be the last season of the game, it's just that if I win, next season I won't be participating but I will still organize it.
OK  :)
Then I misunderstood your announcement.

But then also ; for many reasons I disagree with your announcement of not participating next season.
If I'm right about your motives to do this announcement, in short ; you feel "burdened" to win it again, and wish someone else to win it too.
But maybe I misunderstood this also, so correct me if I'm wrong about your motives.
If I'm right about your motives, these are the many reasons why I disagree with your announcement :

1. To organise the prediction game, the organisation itself does not give you any advantage in the game.
So that you are organising it, is no reason not to participate.

2. Perhaps you think you have an advantage with your lists of GC contenders, and that is one of the reasons of your announcement.
True, this might give you an advantage, but being smarter than other participants is no reason not to participate.
And in my opinion your list is just a very rough indication, because there are many unknown variable, and important factors.
Too many factors to mention, but let's give one example ; the tactics used by a manager can make a big difference.
Also in my opinion ; a participant who is very good in estimating where cyclists have their TC bonus,
he has more advantage of his smartness, as you do with your lists. Again ; being smart is no reason not to participate.
This game is fun gambling, for example you don't even know if your predicted cyclist will ride that tour if he is not in your own team.

3. Ok, let's assume you are the "van der Poel" of the prediction game, therefore an example ;
Next season there is just one cycling race, the world championship road race, all other races and tours are cancelled.
And van der Poel is asked to organise the WC race.
Of course he is competing too.
But this same situation is going on for a few years, and everytime van der Poel won this only cycling race of the season.
So he announced not to participate next season, so someone else can win too.
What van der Poel then does not realise, that he is devaluating the WC race and even takes the glamour, prestige and fun out of it.
Because the future winner always gets to hear and knows himself that he won, because van der Poel was not competing.
It is way more fun, prestigious and glamourous to beat van der Poel in the by him organised WC race.
But van der Poel himself takes away this opportunity, by not competing.
Out of respect to his rivals, van der Poel should compete.
And understandable that he makes the thinking mistake that he does not want to participate out of respect to his rivals,
but that is a wrong thought and only a thought/feeling that he has himself. His rivals think very different about the same situation.
What brings me to reason 4.

4. I cannot speak for everyone, but I assume everyone agrees with this ;
if I am not good enough to win the predicition game, too bad, of course I would like to win it myself, but if that is not the case and someone else wins it, my second favorable for someone to win it, would be the one who organised this in a great way like you do, Ophiuko.
Maybe you feel burdened to win it many times, but that is just what you feel,
I assume that all other participants feel differently as you do, it is even the opposite of what you feel.
If you are the most smart or the most lucky or a combination of this, you deserved the victory.
And by not competing next season, you keep your own myth alive that you are too good compared to all others,
let us prove we can beat you, and if not, my advice to you is ; try to enjoy another victory. :)
Of course, if you cannot enjoy that you win, but just enjoy organising it, only then I can have respect for your announcement.
Although I would really regret that, and I assume all other participants regret it too.
Much more fun for us if you compete next season too.
If I would make a poll on the forum with the question ;
do you want that Ophiuko competes next season too, despite that he is the "van der Poel" of the prediction game ?
I predict that all 100% of the answers would be : YES !
If I would add the answer-possibillity of "YES, I would love that Ophiuko is competing next season too",
then I predict that everyone choses this option.

Way more then enough text about this, although I could write on with many more good reasons why I disagree with your announcement. :))
And again ; maybe I misunderstood your motives of your announcement.
Then the only positive thing of my text is that some people had a long text to read on a Sunday afternoon.
ps ; my main goal in the prediction game is to beat you, that will be very difficult if you are not competing next season. ;)
Of course, all respect if you don't want to compete next season, even if it is for the in my opinion not right reasons.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 07, 2021, 11:09:09 PM
Wow, that's a lot of reasons. But you forget one detail: as organizer, the predictions from other managers are not private for me. It doesn't make much difference, just that I could have the info of which tour a specific rider is going to participate IF the manager send me their predictions and there is an own rider.
Of course, I try to avoid this by making my predictions as soon as possible (the order from left to right on the prediction table is the same order as the predictions were sent), but there is no way to proof this. I thought about sending my predictions to the first manager that send theirs, as a proof that I didn't change my predictions after seeing others. But it's complicated because then I wouldn't allow changes of that first manager to any of my predictions, and sometimes I leave some predictions pending of the first transfer market of the season (to see if my favourite goes to a 1st division team).
Any suggestions to solve this will be welcome.
But definitely the predictions have to remain private, the variability of riders has increased a lot since they became private, and it makes it much more fun.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 07, 2021, 11:31:03 PM
Good point, I did not think about this that you see all the predictions of others.
Indeed, it could be an advantage.
To me not a problem at all that you as organisor have this possible advantage, I see it as a reward for your effort in organising this.
And as an extra challenge to beat you.  ;)
Besides this ; the predictions of others could also be misleading. Although, if I see all predictions, the participants are all pretty good.
Still ; for example your perfect score of 6 points in the Giro ;
some little time difference in the top 3 and you could have predicted the top 3, but all not in the right order, what is 4½ points less.
Then ZG would be the leader, and you had the doubtfull honor to have the same amount of points as Sportlife. :))

I think this situation is unavoidable, and indeed, keeping it private before the deadline makes the game much more fun.
But someone has to see it and organise it, so we should be happy that just one person, the organisor, has this possible advantage.
I don't like a "solution" that the organisor has to make his predictions first before all others,
others cannot check if the organisor really makes it first, but thé reason I don't like it = it could be a disadvantage to the organisor.
And that is the opposite of the much better situation now, that the organisor has a possible advantage as reward for his effort.
Keep in mind that I like to beat van der Poel in a cycling race. Please, participate next season !  :-*  :D
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Aurora Australis on March 07, 2021, 11:44:54 PM
You could always ask for predictions to be sent to somebody who isn't competing.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 07, 2021, 11:56:40 PM
You could always ask for predictions to be sent to somebody who isn't competing.

Há, sometimes the most simple idea is the most brilliant idea. Well thought of, genius AA, thanks for your input. :)
So, Ophiuko, if you know someone trustworthy who is not competing,
and just wants to receive the predictions and send them all to you after the deadline, it is thé solution.
( despite this brilliant idea of AA, to me a solution is not even necessary, but that is just my opinion, I can imagine you want to solve it )
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM
You could always ask for predictions to be sent to somebody who isn't competing.

Great idea. Didn't think of this before. If anyone who is not participating wouldn't mind to receive all the predictions (including mine) and send them to me after the deadline, please contact me.

No correct predictions for Dauphine. The +2 wind of the stage 5, combined with the calm stages 2, 3 & 4, and +1 wind on stage 1, made this tour favorable for climbers. The first non-climber was 5º Abilio Andujar on 1:13.

Next prediction race will be the 6th stage of National Teams, first time of a NT race on this game. Favourites:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Aksel Myklebust
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Efrain Segura
⭐⭐⭐ Bud Power
⭐ Jasper Blair
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 11, 2021, 12:20:30 AM
(https://www.letour.fr/img/global/logo-reversed@2x.png)

Lazare Pires ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Rene Vrijmoed ⭐⭐⭐2º 2º 2º 3º 3º
Aksel Blix ⭐⭐
Alexey Ryazanov ⭐
Klaus Amundsen ⭐
Maurizio Lorenzetto ⭐
Yvo VanStraalen 2º 2º 2º
David Manuel Piñeiro 2º 2º
Aleksandr Menke 2º 3º 3º
Oscar Marcos 2º 3º
August Thoelen 2º 3º
Jorund Nordnes
Espen Valgren 3º 3º
Allan Palmer 3º 3º
Sergey Rodionov
Rafael Carlos Loinaz
Daniel Mulikov
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 15, 2021, 08:18:55 PM
After NT race (no guessers) and Tour de France:

1.  Ophiuko CT 10.5
2.  ZG 9
3.  Bikeos 7
4.  Sportlife 5.5
5.  Mlb 5
     Team Euroscalt 5
7.  Cabrasverdes 3.5
8.  Villavante 3
9.  MarquinaTeam 2.5
10. LottoStelvio 2
      °Peachy°Melocotons 2
12. RealMurciaCycling 1.5
      Azerite 1.5
13. JGMTeam 1
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 15, 2021, 08:30:23 PM
(https://scontent-lhr8-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-1/p200x200/10250170_732371680116978_3322225076796368321_n.png?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=1eb0c7&_nc_ohc=ZZEqDLcySpsAX9aWBpT&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-1.xx&_nc_tp=30&oh=6f70ccae29cff8b88663793fb8cc8a08&oe=60759D99)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Sammy Caan
⭐ Martin Hunter
⭐ Robert Lauk

(https://www.lavuelta.es/img/dyn/event/1@2x.png)
Lazare Pires ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Aksel Blix ⭐⭐
Rene Vrijmoed ⭐⭐
Nathan Lust ⭐⭐
August Thoelen ⭐
Callum Dardar ⭐
David Manuel Piñeiro ⭐
Adam Zipp ⭐
Espen Valgren
Sergey Rodionov
Yvo VanStraalen
Allan Palmer
Aleksandr Menke
Oscar Marcos
Gedeon Chassier
Maurizio Lorenzetto
Alexey Ryazanov
Tjerk Tusveld
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 19, 2021, 06:50:43 PM
Analysis Sportlife chance to win the Prediction Race this season 15 :

Nobody predicted the right winner in SanSebastian.
So the ranking is still the same ; 4º Sportlife  5,5  --> = 5 points behind leader 1º OphiukoCT  10,5

My predicted nr 2 Vuelta is not selected, so I can get a max. score of 4 Vuelta points. But if I do, Ophiuko gets ½+½= 1 Vuelta point too.
So, theorethically it is possible to get 3 points closer to the leader.

Still 2 more points to go, to get even.
Luckily Ophiuko has 5 different predictions for the final 5 races/questions.
However, it seems already sure we both will have the predicted golden bike and predicted 1A champion wrong.

So, if the Vuelta goes perfect for me, and I predicted the right nrs 1 and 3, it can come down to Lombardia and both WC races.
There I have to score 2 more points then Ophiuko to get even, and get all 3 right to overtake the current leader.
Even by beating Ophiuko, victory is still not sure, others can score more points, for example nr 2º ZG who is already 3½ points ahead now.

Conclusion for now ; if Lazare Pires does not win the Vuelta, it is already certain that Sportlife will not win it.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 23, 2021, 02:04:00 PM
(https://www.ilombardia.it/wp-content/themes/illombardia/img/Logo_IL.png?ver=4.4.6)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Robert Lauk
⭐⭐⭐ Sammy Caan
⭐⭐ Filipe Graca
⭐ Martin Hunter
⭐ Diogo Fraga

(https://www.thesportsdb.com/images/icons/honours/UCI_World_Time_Trial_Championships.png)
TT:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ David McDermot
⭐⭐⭐ Zehar Bottani
⭐ Seppo Merisalu
⭐ Leons Salna

Road:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Denis Preisig
⭐⭐⭐ Mikhail Pinin
⭐⭐ Bob Kluivert
⭐⭐ Andras Valter
⭐ Arno Verbeek
⭐ Andrea Marino

(https://www.cyclingforfun.org/cff/imagenes/1indi.gif)

⭐⭐⭐⭐ Lazare Pires
⭐⭐⭐ Rene Vrijmoed
⭐⭐ Arno Verbeek
⭐⭐ Aksel Blix
⭐ Andras Valter
⭐ Leonid Leonov
⭐ Yvo VanStraalen

(https://www.cyclingforfun.org/cff/imagenes/1equipos.gif)

⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Rekutxuteam
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Inglorious_Bastards
⭐⭐ Ikibasque
⭐ Sportlife
⭐ Valderend
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 23, 2021, 08:14:38 PM
La Vuelta:

1.  Ophiuko CT 11
2.  ZG 9.5
3.  Sportlife 8.5
4.  Mlb 7
     Bikeos 7
6.  Team Euroscalt 6
7.  Cabrasverdes 5.5
     MarquinaTeam 5.5
9.  °Peachy°Melocotons 5
10. RealMurciaCycling 4.5
11. Villavante 3.5
12. Azerite 2.5
13. LottoStelvio 2
14. JGMTeam 1.5
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 23, 2021, 09:20:27 PM
⭐ Diogo Fraga
Vai ! Vai ! Vai ! Venga ! Venga ! Venga ! Go ! Go ! Go ! :))
I need this Lombardia point to still have a chance to win the Prediction Race.
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 25, 2021, 09:38:47 AM
Final classification:

1.  Ophiuko CT 12
2.  ZG 9.5
3.  Sportlife 8.5
4.  Team Euroscalt 8
5.  Mlb 7
     Bikeos 7
     °Peachy°Melocotons 5
8.  Cabrasverdes 6.5
     MarquinaTeam 6.5
10. RealMurciaCycling 4.5
11. Villavante 3.5
      Azerite 3.5
13. LottoStelvio 3
14. JGMTeam 2.5
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 25, 2021, 09:39:58 AM
Hall of fame:

Season 7: Marcatone_Due/Flandria (15 p)
Season 8: Aurora_Australis (17 p)
Season 9: Cabrasverdes (13 p)
Season 10: Quickstepbronx (10 p)
Season 11: OphiukoCT (18 p)
Season 12: Mlb (16 p)
Season 13: TeamRHB (17.5 p)
Season 14: OphiukoCT (12.5 p)
Season 15: OphiukoCT (12 p)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 25, 2021, 09:42:51 AM
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/564826389765816343/824563605734555658/unknown.png)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: Vos on March 25, 2021, 09:54:33 AM
Congrats with the very well deserved victory, Ophiuko !  8)
The perfect score in the Giro was the key to success, for example if you had no predictions in the Giro, you would have finished 10th.
Many thanks for, ánd many appreciation for the effort you have put into this prediction game by organising it. Great overviews !  :)
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: EpoGlucK on March 25, 2021, 11:02:10 AM
Te vas en lo más alto ^^.

Nice work as always Ophiuko!!
Title: Re: Guess who will win season 15
Post by: ophiuko on March 25, 2021, 05:07:24 PM
Thanks Vos and Peachey.

After seeing the results of the poll, there are 7 votes for "maximum 50 points" and 8 votes for "keep at 40 points" (and 3 for "as many as possible"). Therefore I've decided that I'm going to increase just a bit the points by adding all the classics during the season, not rotating them. The small tours will go in 4 pairs rotation (Paris Nice - Tirreno Adriatico; Volta - Itzulia; Romandie - Dauphine; Suisse - BBT) and one season there will be 4 of them, and the following season the other 4. TDU will never appear because it's too soon and people doesn't have time.

Following the suggestion of AA, someone will take care of collecting all the predictions for the new season, after the deadline, he will send them to me. That way I'll participate, giving Vos another chance to beat me  :P

I'll announce all the news soon, on the new post for season 16. Thanks everyone for participating.