I had a similar problem. Verbeek has chances on the golden bike. Not very big chances, but with luck he may have a shot. Riis is not riding the Vuelta and can only score in Lombarda. Lorenzetto is riding the Vuelta and can do well. All can get some where around the 4000 points. So do i go all in and see if i can get the win, or do i follow my original plan and go for Luna in this race?
I chose Verbeek and got Woods as a domestique instead of another climber. The first stage went well. Verbeek got 10th and 85 valuable points. Tonight is another important one. We need to get a similar result but it will be more difficult.

The
golden bike is of course a much more prestigious objective / price, than just a nation jersey.
Just a little chance on winning the golden bike is worth fighting for.
Maybe even
Verbeek has a good chance, and it would be mega impressive if your Dutchman wins the golden bike, Sjiz.
Because so far only tour riders* won this biggest CFF price for individual cyclists, and Verbeek is a versatile specialist.
( *= 4x Bauer, 1x Roethlisberger and 2x Palmer )
But as you already mentioned ;
Lorenzetto ( 4x silver bike ) will be a very fierce competitor despite he had his TC bonus in the Giro.
He can score points in 3 Vuelta stages, in the Vuelta GC and in Lombardia.
Versus Verbeek in 3 Vuelta stages ( and now 2 more to go ).
To me a bit unexpected that
Riis is not riding the Vuelta with his current lead in the golden bike ranking,
but he still could be a rival with just one suited race left for him this season.
And that is Lombardia, although he never finished top10 in that classic race. But in previous season he was 6th in San Sebastian.
I don't see more real rivals for the golden bike, Verbeek has a big lead to many other amazing golden tour riders.
But who will win the golden bike ? It seems to me (also) the battle can be very close and exciting.
Verbeek has a good chance if "his" two stages go very well, but maybe it will depend entirely on how Lorenzetto does in this Vuelta.
For sure he is motivated and eager to win the golden bike after 4 times silver.
To me the Vuelta GC competition (with TC bonus) seems very fierce for Lorenzetto,
and maybe (or even probably) too fierce to score enough GC points to win the golden bike. And he needs many GC points to beat Verbeek.
Good luck Sjiz ! If Verbeek wins the golden bike, it would be an amazing and unique achievement with a specialist cyclist.
Although to me Lorenzetto deserves it too, so good luck also, Aurelio !