Poll

Which changes would you like to see in the "Guess who will win" game in the future?

As many predictions as possible, no matter the number
2 (28.6%)
More predictions, but not more than 50 total maximum points (currently is 40 points)
3 (42.9%)
Changes every season, but keeping the same number of predictions
2 (28.6%)
Less predictions
0 (0%)
No changes
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 7

Voting closed: March 26, 2021, 12:47:31 AM

Author Topic: Guess who will win season 15  (Read 10028 times)

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2021, 01:50:11 PM »
winner = ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐Mazim Pugovkin ( 29, IKIBASQUE )
( right predicted by ZG, Mlb, TeamEuroscalt, Bikeos and Sportlife )

update Prediction Race :

1. ZG  6
2. Sportlife  5
3. Ophiuko CT  4
    TeamEuroscalt  4
5. Cabrasverdes  3
    Bikeos  3
7. Villavante  2
    MarquinaTeam  2
    Mlb  2
   °Peachy°Melocotons  2
11. JGMTeam  1
      Azerite  1
      RealMurciaCycling  1
      LottoStelvio  1

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Giro d'Italia :
My predicted numbers 1 and 2 of the Giro are not even riding this big tour.
Maybe I can score 1 point ( or a ½ point ) with Marcos, now 2nd, and I predicted him as 3rd.

Thoelen is the current GC leader halfway the Giro.
Nobody predicted him as winner, and just OphiukoCT (as 2nd) and LottoStelvio (as 3rd) predicted him as podium candidate.
I predicted Thoelen as 3rd in the Tour de France, and it is already sure (due to TC bonus) that it will be another wrong prediction of mine.

Leader ZG(1º) also has 2 Giro predictions who are not competing, only his predicted Giro winner is selected and at the moment 10th GC.
OphiukoCT(3º) his Giro predictions look good at the moment. Maybe a perfect score of 6 points if the GC changes in the 2nd half of the Giro.
TeamEuroscalt(3º) has now the right predicted nr 2, but his predicted Giro winner is not competing and his predicted nr 3 is 17th GC.
LottoStelvio(11º) can score 3 points if Marcos is 2nd and Thoelen 3rd, and also he has a predicted Giro winner who is not competing.
Other participants can score points too, and maybe this Giro will cause a big change in the ranking. I'm curious.  :)
« Last Edit: March 03, 2021, 01:59:28 PM by Vos »

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2021, 10:13:14 PM »
Thanks for the update Vos  ;) Indeed the Giro GC is looking good for my predictions. I don't know how it will end but there are good chances of guessing the correct podium (probably in different order), which would be a great achievement...

BUT not the first time happening. In previous seasons, others have guessed the correct podium of a GT:

Season 12: JGMTeam (1 exact position and 2 switched) and RealMurciaCycling (all in different order) guessed the full podium of La Vuelta
Season 11: JGMTeam, OphiukoCT and Sportlife guessed the full podium of Giro d'Italia (1 exact position and 2 switched)
Season 10: Flyvende_hjul guessed the full podium of Giro d'Italia (all of them in different order)

No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2021, 02:34:06 PM »
No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?
Predictions OphiukoCT = 1. Marcos ; 2. Thoelen ; 3. VanStraalen

Giro TOP 5 GC after 7 stages ( green= exact prediction, red= needs to move up one place for the very first perfect score in a big tour ) :

1    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 00"
2    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 19"   
3    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   0: 20"
4    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   0: 54"
5    Alexander Castilla   26   Innioraths   1: 47"

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2021, 09:03:07 PM »
I will make it exciting for you, Ophiuko, at the moment you are just 7 seconds apart from a historic perfect score in a big tour.  8)  :))

No one has guessed full podium of a GT with all the predictions in the right position yet. Will it happen this season?
Predictions OphiukoCT = 1. Marcos ; 2. Thoelen ; 3. VanStraalen

Giro TOP 5 GC after 8 stages ( green= exact prediction, brown= both need to switch places for the very first perfect score in a big tour ) :

1    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 00"   
2    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 07"
3    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   1: 01"   
4    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   1: 04"   
5    Nathan Lust   29   FaltososDeChigre   2: 06"
« Last Edit: March 04, 2021, 09:05:27 PM by Vos »

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2021, 11:21:29 PM »
Hahaha I rather be excited with winning the Giro instead of the predictions. It looks like everything will be decided tonight at the hills sprint, as in the last stage the downhill finish will probably make the GC contenders cross the line in the same group (unless someone mistakes the mountain S4 with S5, which happened before haha).

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2021, 12:15:08 PM »
Ok, then I better mention that your sprinter Dias is doing great in the Giro with victories in stages 1 and 9.  8) 
Remarkable that your team is 4th in the 2nd division, that is a top ranking for a team with 14x u21 cyclists.

And funny to mention the Giro TOP 7 GC after 9 stages, because as it looks now, it will be a historic perfect score of you :  :)

1    Oscar Marcos   29   IKIBASQUE   0: 00"   
2    August Thoelen   27   Inglourious_Bastards   0: 30"   
3    Yvo VanStraalen   26   Combuijs   1: 31"
4    Tjerk Tusveld   33   ZG   1: 34"   
5    Nathan Lust   29   FaltososDeChigre   1: 36"   
6    Espen Valgren   28   SentinelChickens   1: 58"
7    Sam Lee   33   $Tourmalet   3: 00"   

Of course, still one more stage to go,
and although I agree with you that most likely this stage 10 will not change anything, you never now what will happen.
This stage 10 scenario would be perfect to me :)) ; Thoelen finishes 0:31" ahead of Marcos, and VanStraalen drops one GC place.
What means just 1 point for you, instead of 6 points for a perfect score.
And it is already certain that I will score a ½ point in this Giro, what is enough to stay ahead of you :P, if you score just 1 point.

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2021, 07:17:59 PM »
Giro d'Italia:

1.  Ophiuko CT 10
2.  ZG 6
3.  Sportlife 5.5
4.  Mlb 5
5.  Team Euroscalt 4.5
6.  Bikeos 4
7.  Cabrasverdes 3.5
8.  Villavante 2.5
     MarquinaTeam 2.5
10. LottoStelvio 2
      °Peachy°Melocotons 2
12. RealMurciaCycling 1.5
13. JGMTeam 1
      Azerite 1

If I win this season, I won't be participating the next one. Either that or another person takes over the prediction game.

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2021, 11:00:24 PM »
Not cheering for your perfect Giro prediction, but instead this announcement.
I assume it has nothing to do with my effort to make this more fun and interesting, and very well predicted, you have a good lead now.
Maybe you were not cheering, because you expect that I will pass you just before the finishline at the end of this season. ;)
Of course all respect to your announcement, and thanks + respect for organising this for many seasons. 8)
For sure appreciated by me.

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2021, 11:48:38 AM »
I help you a bit, Ophiuko. If this will be the last season, we better enjoy it. :)

  Favorites Prediction Race =
⭐⭐⭐  Noel Gatson
⭐⭐  Raino Laine
⭐  Rene Vrijmoed
⭐  Todd Power
⭐  Norman Coy

Not competing =
⭐⭐⭐  Lazare Pires  ( his team made no Dauphiné selection )
⭐  Sergey Rodionov  ( his team made no Dauphiné selection )
⭐  Alex Riss  ( 2nd division )
⭐  Alexey Ryazanov  ( not selected )

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2021, 07:24:23 PM »
Not cheering for your perfect Giro prediction, but instead this announcement.
I assume it has nothing to do with my effort to make this more fun and interesting, and very well predicted, you have a good lead now.
Maybe you were not cheering, because you expect that I will pass you just before the finishline at the end of this season. ;)
Of course all respect to your announcement, and thanks + respect for organising this for many seasons. 8)
For sure appreciated by me.

Your help is very much appreciated Vos. Of course I'm happy after guessing the exact podium. But I already won last season, and so much winning from the organizer doesn't look good. I guess that the excel lists that I make for every tour must help for my predictions, I selected Thoelen and VanStraalen for the Giro because their coefficient was higher than others. But still, if the same manager wins everytime, the game losses interest. Anyway, the season is not finished, let's see first what is happening.

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #25 on: March 06, 2021, 07:28:37 PM »
I help you a bit, Ophiuko. If this will be the last season, we better enjoy it. :)

I didn't see this. I didn't mean this will be the last season of the game, it's just that if I win, next season I won't be participating but I will still organize it. It's almost no effort for me to organize this, as I have set an excel sheet to count all the points automatically. I just have to spend 30 min at the beginning of the season writing all the predictions received.

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2021, 03:19:50 PM »
I didn't mean this will be the last season of the game, it's just that if I win, next season I won't be participating but I will still organize it.
OK  :)
Then I misunderstood your announcement.

But then also ; for many reasons I disagree with your announcement of not participating next season.
If I'm right about your motives to do this announcement, in short ; you feel "burdened" to win it again, and wish someone else to win it too.
But maybe I misunderstood this also, so correct me if I'm wrong about your motives.
If I'm right about your motives, these are the many reasons why I disagree with your announcement :

1. To organise the prediction game, the organisation itself does not give you any advantage in the game.
So that you are organising it, is no reason not to participate.

2. Perhaps you think you have an advantage with your lists of GC contenders, and that is one of the reasons of your announcement.
True, this might give you an advantage, but being smarter than other participants is no reason not to participate.
And in my opinion your list is just a very rough indication, because there are many unknown variable, and important factors.
Too many factors to mention, but let's give one example ; the tactics used by a manager can make a big difference.
Also in my opinion ; a participant who is very good in estimating where cyclists have their TC bonus,
he has more advantage of his smartness, as you do with your lists. Again ; being smart is no reason not to participate.
This game is fun gambling, for example you don't even know if your predicted cyclist will ride that tour if he is not in your own team.

3. Ok, let's assume you are the "van der Poel" of the prediction game, therefore an example ;
Next season there is just one cycling race, the world championship road race, all other races and tours are cancelled.
And van der Poel is asked to organise the WC race.
Of course he is competing too.
But this same situation is going on for a few years, and everytime van der Poel won this only cycling race of the season.
So he announced not to participate next season, so someone else can win too.
What van der Poel then does not realise, that he is devaluating the WC race and even takes the glamour, prestige and fun out of it.
Because the future winner always gets to hear and knows himself that he won, because van der Poel was not competing.
It is way more fun, prestigious and glamourous to beat van der Poel in the by him organised WC race.
But van der Poel himself takes away this opportunity, by not competing.
Out of respect to his rivals, van der Poel should compete.
And understandable that he makes the thinking mistake that he does not want to participate out of respect to his rivals,
but that is a wrong thought and only a thought/feeling that he has himself. His rivals think very different about the same situation.
What brings me to reason 4.

4. I cannot speak for everyone, but I assume everyone agrees with this ;
if I am not good enough to win the predicition game, too bad, of course I would like to win it myself, but if that is not the case and someone else wins it, my second favorable for someone to win it, would be the one who organised this in a great way like you do, Ophiuko.
Maybe you feel burdened to win it many times, but that is just what you feel,
I assume that all other participants feel differently as you do, it is even the opposite of what you feel.
If you are the most smart or the most lucky or a combination of this, you deserved the victory.
And by not competing next season, you keep your own myth alive that you are too good compared to all others,
let us prove we can beat you, and if not, my advice to you is ; try to enjoy another victory. :)
Of course, if you cannot enjoy that you win, but just enjoy organising it, only then I can have respect for your announcement.
Although I would really regret that, and I assume all other participants regret it too.
Much more fun for us if you compete next season too.
If I would make a poll on the forum with the question ;
do you want that Ophiuko competes next season too, despite that he is the "van der Poel" of the prediction game ?
I predict that all 100% of the answers would be : YES !
If I would add the answer-possibillity of "YES, I would love that Ophiuko is competing next season too",
then I predict that everyone choses this option.

Way more then enough text about this, although I could write on with many more good reasons why I disagree with your announcement. :))
And again ; maybe I misunderstood your motives of your announcement.
Then the only positive thing of my text is that some people had a long text to read on a Sunday afternoon.
ps ; my main goal in the prediction game is to beat you, that will be very difficult if you are not competing next season. ;)
Of course, all respect if you don't want to compete next season, even if it is for the in my opinion not right reasons.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 03:23:11 PM by Vos »

ophiuko

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2021, 11:09:09 PM »
Wow, that's a lot of reasons. But you forget one detail: as organizer, the predictions from other managers are not private for me. It doesn't make much difference, just that I could have the info of which tour a specific rider is going to participate IF the manager send me their predictions and there is an own rider.
Of course, I try to avoid this by making my predictions as soon as possible (the order from left to right on the prediction table is the same order as the predictions were sent), but there is no way to proof this. I thought about sending my predictions to the first manager that send theirs, as a proof that I didn't change my predictions after seeing others. But it's complicated because then I wouldn't allow changes of that first manager to any of my predictions, and sometimes I leave some predictions pending of the first transfer market of the season (to see if my favourite goes to a 1st division team).
Any suggestions to solve this will be welcome.
But definitely the predictions have to remain private, the variability of riders has increased a lot since they became private, and it makes it much more fun.

Vos

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2021, 11:31:03 PM »
Good point, I did not think about this that you see all the predictions of others.
Indeed, it could be an advantage.
To me not a problem at all that you as organisor have this possible advantage, I see it as a reward for your effort in organising this.
And as an extra challenge to beat you.  ;)
Besides this ; the predictions of others could also be misleading. Although, if I see all predictions, the participants are all pretty good.
Still ; for example your perfect score of 6 points in the Giro ;
some little time difference in the top 3 and you could have predicted the top 3, but all not in the right order, what is 4½ points less.
Then ZG would be the leader, and you had the doubtfull honor to have the same amount of points as Sportlife. :))

I think this situation is unavoidable, and indeed, keeping it private before the deadline makes the game much more fun.
But someone has to see it and organise it, so we should be happy that just one person, the organisor, has this possible advantage.
I don't like a "solution" that the organisor has to make his predictions first before all others,
others cannot check if the organisor really makes it first, but thé reason I don't like it = it could be a disadvantage to the organisor.
And that is the opposite of the much better situation now, that the organisor has a possible advantage as reward for his effort.
Keep in mind that I like to beat van der Poel in a cycling race. Please, participate next season !  :-*  :D
« Last Edit: March 07, 2021, 11:32:34 PM by Vos »

Aurora Australis

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Re: Guess who will win season 15
« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2021, 11:44:54 PM »
You could always ask for predictions to be sent to somebody who isn't competing.