Australia NT Season 15

[Vos]

To my big surprise the Aurora_Australis time trialists did it again !
More than excellent results, a great total of 700 points, and an amazing victory of Isaac Trump ! 

1    Isaac Trump      33   0: 00"   300      Aurora_Australis
2    Jorik van der Toorn      30   0: 02"   250      KunTeam
3    Isidro Murillo      29   0: 03"   225      Inglourious_Bastards
4    David McDermot      30   0: 04"   200      Thorboassonarvesen
5    Richard Levin      33   0: 04"   180      Aurora_Australis
6    Zehar Bottani      29   0: 05"   160      Inglourious_Bastards
7    Ignat Nefedov      31   0: 05"   150      Flyvende_hjul
8    Salamon Jordáki      26   0: 07"   140      Innioraths
9    Paul Clickett      32   0: 07"   130      Aurora_Australis
10    Arthur Bezotosnyi      31   0: 08"   120      KunTeam
11    Michaël Colenbie      31   0: 09"   110      IntellinetCyclingFF
12    James Power      26   0: 10"   100      Rekutxuteam
13    Marcus Rodriguez      28   0: 10"   90      TeaMetal
14    Christian Pinkney      32   0: 11"   80      Aurora_Australis
15    Sandro Adamo      31   0: 11"   70      ProCyclingTeam10
16    Shalva Makarov      26   0: 12"   60      Caracoles
17    Jesus Javier Montaño      29   0: 13"   40      Catalonia_Team
18    Carlos Olmo      31   0: 13"   30      RealMurciaCycling
19    Ian Mikkelson      26   0: 13"   20      CyKings
20    David Wilson      31   0: 13"   10      Facha_Bartolo


The other countries divided the remaining points about equal (2nd best, Spain, scored 265 points) , what is very beneficial to Australia.
Because we moved up from place 7 to place 1 in the season ranking.

[Aurora Australis]

Not only your surprise.  I'd been thinking maybe Paul Clickett could sneak in a podium, but Trump & Levin stood on those pedals as the last remaining representatives of the first season to say "not yet, we're still here."

Trump has to be the last of the original season cyclists in any discipline who'll win any NT.

[Vos]

Australia u20 ( 76 cyclists ) 

[Vos]

RACE 5 : ZALLA

11ºC

Zalla, Basque Country, Spain,
Australia has 1 golden cobblehills cyclist, Sam Rooney, ranked as nr 156 and to me he seems more a Gent-Wevelgem specialist.
In the 3 previous seasons Australia scored zero points in NT cobblehills races.
So the expectations are very low and every scored point would be surprising.

A good opportunity to select xp cyclists. And I looked especially at the young cobblehills talents, and good to see that there are many.
Of course, the nr 2 in the u23 cobblehills DT gets an xp spot.
Maybe he is already good enough to help, what says more about the quality of the 2 older selected cyclists.
I'm impressed by the 21yo cobblehills talents of Agua_Verde, all 3 will make their debut.
According to me the 2 best 19yo's look promising, also they are selected.

One place left, and the last one will be selected later this week. It could be another talent, or maybe an extra (old) helper.
edit ; at the last moment a max. experienced helper is added, to increase the ( still very little ) chance to score a few points.

Australia NT selection :

Sam Rooney ( 25 ) Lemarche
Alex Byers ( 32 ) Fountain
Kirk Trump ( 33 ) $Tourmalet
- - - - - - - - - -
Marc Huling ( 22 ) CobbleCrushers
Bob Janson ( 21 ) Agua_Verde    ( debut )
Brooklyn Abolins ( 21 ) Agua_Verde    ( debut )
Oliver Odom ( 21 ) Agua_Verde    ( debut )
Neil Spiker ( 19 ) ChessPower    ( debut )
Mannie Hines ( 19 ) PerrosPardos    ( debut )

[Vos]

16    Cedric Dussie      25   0: 36"   60      ChampsElysees
17    Arthur Jenus      26   0: 36"   40      JGMTeam
18    Borja Silva      24   0: 36"   30      Orange
19    János Szabics      30   0: 36"   20      Blanes
20    Rayco Martos      27   0: 36"   10      Rekutxuteam
- - - - - - - - - -
21    Sam Rooney      25   0: 36"   0      Lemarche

Pfffffff, almost a few surprising points, the nr 16 finished in the same time.
Thanks to excellent help in the first 3 sections of the 33yo Trump ánd the just 22yo Huling ; teamcaptain Rooney came very close.

Well, positive that he almost scored points, but something else was dissapointing in this race ;
Some rival countries scored way too many points !
Especially main rival Spain, that won this race and scored the most total points ( = 560 ! ).

Spain takes over the lead, and Australia is now 2º in the season ranking, suddenly 285 points behind. That is way too many.
Also many points in this cobblehills race for rivals Ukraine ( 540 points ), Great Britain ( 380 points ) and the Netherlands ( 330 ).

So, it does not look good at the moment, also because next week there is again a sprint race.
The current season ranking, and in green the total points of previous NT sprint race 3 :

1.    1.465   ( 130 )
2.    1.180   ( 70 )
3.    1.160   ( 0 )
4.    1.060   ( 470 )
5.     910   ( 140 )
6.     825   ( 300 )
7.     810   ( 80 )
8.     770   ( 200 )
9.     665   ( 225 )
10.     620   ( 250 )

Hopefully a very different outcome in the next NT sprint race, because otherwise Spain and Great Britain are too far ahead.
And then it will be just a battle for the 3º place this season, what would be my worst result as NT manager in CFF3.
All focus is now on our Australian Bullet, he has to perform more than amazing to still have a shot at the world championship of Austalia.


GO, GO, GO, JASPER "THE BULLET" BLAIR ! ! ! ! ! 

[Vos]

RACE 6 : MILANO


17ºC

Albese con Cassano, northern Italy,
Australia has to do amazing, despite it has a NT manager who is unlucky in sprint races.
And even 2 perfect final NT races might not be good enough to be the world champion.
Current two times (s14+s13) worldchampion Great Britain was (and i.mo. still is) the topfavorite,
and the worldchampion of s12, Spain, has a very good lead at the moment.

Perhaps it will be a battle for the 3rd place with some other countries.
Also then ; a good sprint result of Blair is needed, who finished as 15º in the stormy NT sprint race 3, what was very dissapointing.
Hopefully this time a much better / much luckier race of the Australian Bullet.

Only sprinters are selected, including the three 22yo's in the u23 sprint dream team.

Australia NT selection :

Jasper Blair ( 25 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Ryan Pierre ( 28 ) CC_Porco_Jones
Tim Malone ( 25 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Wilt Frances ( 25 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team
Richard Davidson ( 26 ) Luka_Warriors
Brent Hunter ( 29 ) FrançaiseDesJeux
- - - - - - - - - -
Anthony Fletcher ( 22 ) lasposturas    ( debut )
Leroy Ablett ( 22 ) lasposturas
Ian Hamsten ( 22 ) lasposturas

[Vos]

17º   Blair    
Again a dissapointing sprint race, this time it went "wrong" in section 4,
because none of the Australians could follow the s4 break away group of 23.

Of course I anticipated on a higher pace in s4, and very weird that all Aussies dropped in s4 and came into the 2nd group of 104 on 0:20"
Apparently the three 22yo's with 0 EP were going just as fast as the best helpers with many energy (or even full power) in s4.

Together with the sprint leaders of FRA, NOO, DEN, GB, ESP, SUI, RUS ; Jasper Blair could make the jump to the s5 front group of now 17.
But despite his megasuperstrong 5 EP, he finished as last of that first group.

Just one positive thing in this sprint race with just 40 points ; rivals GB ( 120 ) and ESP ( 80 ) performed also bad.
But the Netherlands ( 2º+9º = 380 ) scored too many points, and is the new nr 2 in the season ranking.

And despite Australia has 2 very good cobbleflat specialists ;
Great Britain and the Netherlands can score many more points than Australia in the final NT race ( = Paris Roubaix ).
And although I expect that current nr1 Spain will have difficulties to score more points, it has a very good lead in the season ranking.
Probably not a big enough lead for NED and GB, both countries have the potential to overtake Spain. But that will be difficult for AUS.

season ranking with just 1 more race to go :

1     1.545 
2     1.290
3     1.220
4     1.180
5     1.160
6      965
7      935
8      890
9      880
10     760

I estimate it does not look at the moment ; according to me, the most chance is that Australia will be 4th in the final season ranking.
But also ; I estimate that still everything can happen in the final flat cobble race with 2 stripes of wind. We just have to beat the odds.
However, a podiumplace seems out of reach, but maybe also the 5th place, what would be the worst result ever of Australia.

Perhaps we need a new Australian NT manager who has more luck in sprint races.
It would be at least a few hundreds of points more ( than what I did in both sprint races with 15º and 17º = total of just 110 points    ),
and then a very good chance for that new NT manager to become world champion with Australia ( if we have a good season schedule ).

[Vos]

Funny to mention that the nr 62 in the golden sprint ranking will win the individual world championship :
Ralfs Zars ( 31, catapunchimpon ) ; 3º and 1º in the sprint races.

[Franky]

It is not being the best season for Jasper honestly...

[Vos]

It is not being the best season for Jasper honestly...

= thé understatement of this Australian NT season. 

The NT sprint races are a roulette table to me, every time I gamble on red or black, the ball goes into the just one green little box.
So, no matter what I try, I always gamble wrong in NT sprint races.

[B.E-L]

Gambling in a NT race is never the best choose when you ask me. I've learned that the hard way in my first season back as an NT coach. I've gambled in the first sprintrace and the Dutch riders where blown out of the first group in the 2nd section. This time i've played it safe and my leader spent 10 EP's to become second.

[Vos]

In my opinion ; racing with a lot of EP in a sprint race is for sure gambling too ;
you gamble it will break somewhere, and with 10 EP you gamble even it will break in more then 1 section.
If not ; for sure a bad result with 10 EP.

And of course I tried to gamble like you did sometimes too in the past. Don't forget I raced more than 30 NT sprint races in this game.
The most common/ my standard tactic is 8 or 9 EP without wind, only in NT standard, in normal CFF it is killing to use so many EP.
This time I gambled differently, and often I like to gamble with less EP, although also often I did not, it depends on the situation or ranking.

Anyway, your gamble would have been a better gamble than what I gambled now.
Well, no guts, no glory. I will beat those waste energy gambling Dutch sprinters next time. 
After the race it is clear that your gamble of 10 EP was way too much ; the race went like this = 138 - 132 - 121 - 23 - 17

By the way ; also FRA, NOO, DEN, GB, ESP, SUI, RUS made the jump from s4 to s5,
and Blair finished as last of the front group. So maybe they gambled with a 5 or 6 EP tactic ( or 7 EP and they were just better as Blair ).

Also remarkable that the 22yo's with 0 EP in s4 were going just as fast as most much better helpers who went full power in s4 to anticipate on what happened now. Explain that too please. Kidding of course.
And kidding because sprint races are a gamble ; also racing with many EP is a gamble.

After the race it is always easy to analyse, and everyone makes different choices, in sprint races every choice/tactic is a gamble.
And in all races I like to race on the edge of what is possible, often with success ( sometimes not ),
in my opinion a better strategy than to play it on safe in ( almost ) every NT race.

But maybe I should make an exception in the sprint races, gamble with a "safe" tactic, score some points, and never win.
And of course when I gamble like that, then the roulette bal will drop in the green box again,
no where a break and the Australian sprinter finishes as 15th due to the gamble of too many EP used.
Also happened before, I have experienced it all. And I hate roulette by now.^^

Anyway, you did very well with the Netherlands, BEL, and back in the world champion battle because all 3 main rival countries failed.
And a good chance to become the world championship this season.
Although it can be very close and exciting, most likely Great Britain will be a fierce rival. Good luck ! 

[B.E-L]

Thanks for the compliments Vos.

Yeah i've gambled that is would break 2 times and you are right, 10 was to much EP and yes it was luck that i gambled to use that much EP and ended in 2nd spot. So when you look it like that i wasn't playing safe 


Don't think we have a change to win this. The gap is very big and i don't think i can close it in one single race.

[Kekipi]

This time i've played it safe and my leader spent 10 EP's to become second.

For the record, my captain used 10 eps to place third.  And in the windy s3 sprint stage, my cap used 9 to get 12th.

[B.E-L]

I also just 9 EP in that race. That was clearly not enough in that race.