Australia NT Season 15

[Vos]

Don't think we have a change to win this. The gap is very big and i don't think i can close it in one single race.

Well, I estimate the Netherlands ánd Great Britain have a good chance despite the indeed big gap towards Spain.
Because NL and GB are top countries in flat cobblestones, and there is even a chance that Spain will not score points next week.
Even Australia has still a chance to be the world champion, a top race result is possible, but NL and GB can have more points scoring cyclists.

Still everything can happen, also because it is the first time Paris Roubaix is a NT race, ánd there are 2 stripes of wind.
The normal Paris Roubaix has no secrets to me, but I assume this NT race will go different and will be surprising.
Good and/or lucky tactics can make the difference in who will be the world champion.

And fun that there are still 4 contenders left with just one more race to go. ( although I estimate AUS will be 4th, hopefully I'm wrong ).
So, I expect a fun battlefield in the Hell of the North ! 
And the Aussies are motivated and ready, despite their manager who has no clue how to ride this windy NT race to Roubaix. 
But I assume all other NT managers have the same tactical doubts.

[Vos]

Analyses NT season 15 with just one more race to go ; FCFCC 259 km, cold, 2x wind.
In red the position in the golden flat cobble list. There are 82 golden flat cobble specialists in the game.
Not a good comparison, but just as indication ; in ( bold ) the NT cobble race points of previous season ( race 6 CFCCC + race 7 CCCCC ).

1º     1.545  --> 25, 38. --> ( 0 + 60 )
2º     1.290  --> 1, 17, 18, 23, 35, 51, 55, 57, 64, 74, 77, 80. --> ( 180 + 0 )
3º     1.220  --> 4, 6, 28, 36, 82. --> ( 300 + 250 )
4º     1.180  --> 2, 8, 11, 16, 37, 50, 61, 62, 72. --> ( 460 + 450 )
5º     1.160  --> 26, 31, 60, 75. --> ( 0 + 140 )

Especially for Kekipi, so he does not feel left out, let's add the USA too. 

11º    675  --> 29. --> ( 100 + 100 )
Pretty impressive USA results in previous season, compared to the strenght of all other countries.

At the moment Spain has a good lead, but looking at the red positions of cyclists ; according to me there are still 4 contenders.
But it is a NT race, always surprising results, and the 2x wind makes it even more unpredictable.
So, who knows, maybe Ukraine surprises us all and wins this season 15.

Although I don't expect that, and if I had to put my money on a country, it would be on NL or GB.
Despite the big lead of SPA, what is of course an advantage right now.
But the best is to keep my money in my wallet, because anything can happen in the final NT race. It will be an interesting battle.

[B.E-L]

It could be you are right, but when i look at my riders I'm seeing riders that are lacking experience. Normally Jakob Heijmans could get a top 10 spot, but i need him tot get in the top 3 and some other riders in the top 20. That will be a very difficult thing to do, but we will know next sunday who will win this one.

[Kekipi]

Especially for Kekipi, so he does not feel left out, let's add the USA too. 

11º    675  --> 29. --> ( 100 + 100 )
Pretty impressive USA results in previous season, compared to the strenght of all other countries.

Appreciate the mention.  We will do our best to throw a wrench into the spokes of all the team title contenders.    

Best of luck to all!

[Vos]

 
Thanks, you too good luck !

[ophiuko]

About the NT candidates, I tried to write the message in the game, but I think it's not working, so I post it here:

I don't really like much NTs, and I don't think I'm good with tactics, especially for NT races since they are sometimes very weird. But I'm bored training, so if there are no other candidates I don't mind to take the job. I assume it will be a season of transition between AA's old TTers and the new ones, who still will be 23 yo.

[Vos]

Very good that you are candidate, Ophiuko. 
And no pressure and no worries ; you cannot do it wrong, just enjoy racing with the best Aussies. 

About tactical failures, that is a part of the NT races, it happens often to every NT manager ( including all foreign NT managers ).
And if a race goes completely wrong ; in Australia we blame the cyclists, not the NT manager. 
I'm always surprised if a race goes a bit the way I planned, because in most races the cyclists don't listen to my tactical speech before the race.

About next season ; indeed, most likely it will be a transition season with very low expectations of Australia.
With a lucky season schedule ( + good/lucky tactics ) there is still a chance that Australia can compete high in the ranking.
But for example with a flat TT ( instead of hills TT or climb TT ) ánd with 2 cobblehills races, it might be even a struggle to finish top10.

By the way ; this is just next season 16 the case. In season 17 we have again amazing flat TT specialists of Aurora_Australis.
And I estimate that in season 18 Australia can compete in cobblehills races for the very first time ever.
But also in next season 16 we have good young top cyclists for some types of races. Maybe we are lucky with the season schedule.

And no worries for every next Australian NT manager ; I can help if you want.
Of course, all selection decisions and all tactical decisions are entirely yours.
But I can give advice and options to make the job easier and even more fun.
And I know that all other Australian managers are also willing to help. Together we have great expertise in all different types of races.

[Aurora Australis]

It's a pity the system won't allow NT managers for race type, because I have an outstanding record as NT manager in flat-cobbles, certain other race types not so much.

[wacco]

Some for me. Somehow I really can’t put the good tactics for HHHHH races.

[Vos]

RACE 7 : ROUBAIX


1ºC

Compiègne, northern France,
For the first time ever the monumental classic race Paris Roubaix is on the NT calendar.
There is much at stake in this decisive NT race 7, and I estimate that even a good race can cause "just" a 4º place in the season ranking.
Because the competition is very fierce, and also the wind can make this Paris Roubaix unpredictable and can cause tactical failures.

About the selection ;
All 5 golden flatcobble specialists were selected almost a week ago.
Including the number last in the golden CFF ranking, the 25yo Jameson, who makes his debut despite his shamefull zero experience.
But he has a golden icon and 2 active weather icons.
Today I completed the selection with 4 experienced 33yo silver cyclists, because of the importance of this race.

In previous season Hunter (nr4) and Friend (nr6) had the same high positions in the golden flatcobble ranking as they have now.
Back then I had to make the (easy) choice to select Friend as teamcaptain, due to his much better experience.
And Friend did great in the 2 flatcobble NT races of previous season ; 1º + 2º + individual world champion with a very big lead. 

This season the teamcaptain choice is more difficult, because Hunter improved a tiny little bit in GV (and xp) compared to Friend.
And I have to be opportunistic and creative anyway in this windy Paris Roubaix ;
for example just one top result might not be good enough to finish on the podium in the season ranking, due to the strenght of NL and GB.
And still Australia has a very little chance to become world champion,
despite fierce rivals as NL and GB, and despite Spain has 325 points more at the moment.
But that also means that the results I achieved in previous season ( 1º=300 points, and 2º=250 points ) will not be good enough.
So it will be all about squeezing as much points as possible out of this different NT cobble race. I guess much luck is needed to achieve this.
Of course, being creative and opportunistic, and even gambling on luck is not a good strategic, tactical idea in NT races.
Although it seems to me that the current situation requires it. Well, no guts, no glory !

Australia NT selection :

Angus Friend ( 32 ) Mlb
Keith Hunter ( 25 ) Rekutxuteam
Peter Boit* ( 25 ) Vitimper
Vince Whisman ( 24 ) Luka_Warriors
Sean Jameson** ( 25 ) LosTxinosKudeiros    ( debut )
Kent McClure ( 33 ) Yvo_Meppelink_ProCycling
John Battle ( 33 ) Oloteam
Eric Kelly ( 33 ) team_piroshki
Dylan Gilliam* ( 33 ) Manicomicos_Cycling_Team

[B.E-L]

Great race Vos! Congratz with the championship!

[Kekipi]

And still Australia has a very little chance to become world champion, despite fierce rivals

Excellent job overcoming those fierce rivals.   Congrats!

[ophiuko]

Congrats Vos, amazing job on this season. Australia wasn't the favourite for sure.

[Vos]

AUSTRALIA = WORLD CHAMPION  ! ! !   

Thanks all ! 
I guess luck was on Australian side in this final NT race 7.
The teamcaptain and 3 free role cyclists scored a total of 480 points, what made Australia the best scoring nation in this race.
And that was just enough to be the surprising world champion. This is the closest final top 3 ranking of all NT seasons.
But first this ; A big thanks to all CFF managers with Australian internationals !

Final NT season 15 ranking :

1    1.700
2    1.680  --> also very well done this season, BEL, and congrats with the NT race 7 victory.
3    1.675
- - - - - - - - - -
4    1.350
5    1.260
6    1.155
7    1.140
8    1.025
9     920
10     880

[Franky]

Amazing end!!  a new championship comes to the Down Under!!