Season 16

[Aurora Australis]

Hill stages have a similar potential time loss capability as sprint & cobbles.  Given that 40th is around 10 minutes behind, I don't see anybody in the top 10 able to lose that much, even without considering that others will be in a similar situation.  Arnfinn will probably even remain in the top 10 unless he's on domestique duties, and then it's a maybe.
Two stages, one day to find out (sorry, half a day, 9th stage is 1 minute away).

[Aurora Australis]

Ok back again.

So Arnfinn with gold climb & nothing else (besides cold weather) lost almost 2 minutes to 1st place in GC.  However the 20th time is 1:16 further behind 1st, and 40th is 1 minute exact further behind after stage 9 (to stage .
Another non-hiller, Flip only lost 29 sec, but Gervasio did lose 2:12 (but still well within projected top 20 GC territory - probable 15th or so after last stage).

[Vos]

stage 8 TdF ;
4º  Kummer on 0:00" 
I guess my climbers saved the best for the last mountain stage.
Finally Nyheim did a very good helpers job, what gave an excellent result ; Kummer finished in the front group of just 4.

stage 9 TdF ;
26º  Rubiera  on 0:38" 
An experimental slow start tactic for 3rd favorite Rubiera in an attempt to go for stage victory. No guts, no glory ! 
section 1 = Too bad, but a bit of expected, and in the 2nd group on 0:15" still nothing lost and he saved energy.
All hope and expectation that Rubiera could return in s2 or s3 to the front, where his 94-form helper is.
section 2 = Big crash ! The race is over, because Rubiera dropped to the 3rd group on already 0:29"
section 3 =   With injuries on his left leg and left elbow, Rubiera made the jump to the 2nd group.
But due to the crash in s2 he could not make the jump to the front group of 35 ( incl. "helper" Kluivert ) who were already 0:31" ahead.
section 4 = Kluivert dropped from 1st- to 5th group, but still ahead of his teamcaptain.
I guess Rubiera had an off-day or he was too much injured due to the s2 crash, because the original plan was that he would attack in s4.
But now he was riding in the 6th (!) group, and very surprising ; he even lost 11(!) seconds extra compared to s3.
section 5 = On 0:38" third(!) favorite Rubiera finished as only TdF cyclist with a dissapoint icon.
According to the doctor of SPORTLIFE it is doubtfull if Rubiera can finish this Tour de France.
But the current best Spanish hills specialist of CFF is determined to ride stage 10 and finish in Lyon.
So, at the start in Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule ; expect a Rubiera full of plasters and bandages.

[Kekipi]

So Arnfinn with gold climb & nothing else (besides cold weather) lost almost 2 minutes to 1st place in GC.  However the 20th time is 1:16 further behind 1st, and 40th is 1 minute exact further behind after stage 9 (to stage .
Another non-hiller, Flip only lost 29 sec, but Gervasio did lose 2:12 (but still well within projected top 20 GC territory - probable 15th or so after last stage).

Of the climbing specialists, Arnfinn Mikalsen (5th @ 3:29) and Gervasio Bernal (12th @ 7:52) were able to top-20 for the GC.  Just missing were Artus Vystavkin (21st), Alessandro Romano (22nd), and Arve Tønnesen (23rd).

It was an interesting Tour.  Nice job by all the managers and riders who made it so. 

Congrats to Yvo VanStraalen and Combuijs for winning le maillot jaune!

[Vos]

stage 10 TdF ;
8º  Rubiera
Not in topform, but this hills stage went much better ; no crash, and Kluivert (94 form) did a good helpers job in the first 3 sections.

Congratulations to Combuijs with the amazing Tour de France victory ! 


Yvo VanStraalen ( 27, Combuijs ) wins the Tour de France of season 16.

Also congratulations to all other managers with excellent TdF results.
For example ;
Arnfinn Mikalsen ( 26, TeamEuroscalt ) = 5ºGC + 4 stage victories !

[Vos]

Clasica San Sebastian ;
13º Vorre
Very good result, because his low flat makes him not so suited for the climbhill classic races.


   selection SPORTLIFE

Not a great selection and therefore I expect just a few points.
Sprinter Lebrun has to do it on his own, although Beck (with low health) is selected to try to help 2 sections.
Stage 2 is not a suited hills race to Rubiera + Kluivert ; too much flat. Also their form (99+94) ánd the bad director are not helpfull.
Perhaps Frantzen can surprise, despite his silver icon and his low purchase amount of just 21k (I bought him 12 days ago).

81 Lebrun ( 31 ), sprint
82 Frantzen ( 32 ), cobblehills
83 Rubiera ( 24 ), hills
84 Kluivert ( 32 ), hills
85 Beck ( 29 ), "semi-helper"/experience

Good luck everyone ! 

[Aurora Australis]

Not a great selection and therefore I expect just a few points.
Sprinter Lebrun has to do it on his own, although Beck (with low health) is selected to try to help 2 sections.

I suspect it'll be almost impossible to get points with the sprinter & no real domestique in a ST.  Maybe a GT, where there's a more diversified field.  Still, I'm doing the same, only I'm using three 19-year-olds with health somewhere around 60, and a 23-year-old TTer with health around 70.

331 Eric Armstrong   19 (TTer - low health)
332 Daniel Finn   19 (TTer - low health)
333 Jonny Alfier   19 (TTer - low health)
334 Markus Benett   23 (TTer - low health)
335 Jeronimo Medeiros   31 (sprinter)

[Vos]

Well, sprinter Lebrun surprised me earlier this season. In a helpers role he finished 9º sprint-stage 4 Tour de Suisse.
Of course he had no sprint TC bonus, but he had an active weather icon (wind).
I have to mention that Lebrun profited a lot of the storm in that TdS stage, by using enough EP in all flat sections due to his helpers role.
Because the storm caused a battlefield/bad tactics for most other sprinters.
Stage 4 TdS, section 5 = just 14 x 0:00", 7x 0:17", 7x 0:32", and the nrs 29+30 finished even on 0:55"

No storm in this BBT stage 1, but again Lebrun has an active weather icon.
If his tactic is right, he should ("easily") score points as teamcaptain, even without the very important extra helpers bonus in s5.
Probably he has much more competition in this BBT compared to Suisse, but also this time I don't expect TC bonus rivals.

But to predict a sprint stage ?
Impossible to me , anything can happen ; perhaps again a surprising top10 or perhaps Lebrun finishes outside the points.
We will see what happens.
For now it is good to see that Lebrun (= nr61) can challenge your sprinter Medeiros (=nr50). Good luck !

[Vos]

stage 1 BBT ;
7º  Lebrun
A good result despite a bad director ánd despite Beck was not good enough to help.
Because JGMTeam made this race hard in the first 2 sections ; 26 - 15 - 30 - 25 - 23. His allround teamcaptain Andujar finished as 19º.
Unfortunately in s3 ; the JGM-helper was a bit tired and his back up helper had a mechanical breakdown. Now 15 sprinters returned in s3.
To Lebrun it was better if the pace was very high in s3 as well, and nobody could return. But I'm happy with this result.

[Vos]

stage 2 BBT ;
9º  Rubiera
stage 3 BBT ;
16º  Frantzen
stage 4 BBT ;
6º  Frantzen

Very good results in this BinckBank Tour ; much better as expected.
Nothing at stake in sprint stage 5 in Friesland, because Lebrun is abandon due to a training camp for the WC sprint race in Doha.

[Vos]

   selection SPORTLIFE

The main Vuelta goal is to get the first stage victory of this season ; it is up to 1st favorite Smith to achieve that.
If he fails, then it will be the first season without stage victories of SPORTLIFE. ( not entirely without a victory, because Itzulia was won ).

The second Vuelta goal is to try to score some GC points with Roman ( this season 10º Giro, 5º Dauphiné, 5º Suisse ).
This might be very difficult without TC bonus, and he has just 99 form ( in stage 10 he even drops to 94 form ).
It was not my intentional Vuelta plan to go for Roman in the GC ; I rather would have bought a better GC contender, but that did not happen.

Besides Roman, also the last 3 places were difficult selection choices.
Frantzen is very suited for stage 10. And golden climbers Kummer and Nyheim should be good in mountain stage 6, even without TC.
But instead I selected Millan, Vorre and silver climber Ros ( a 12½k buy of 1 week ago ).
They are better helpers if Roman is good enough to score some GC points.
In the end these strategic choices will cost my team some points, but as it seems now, the total season points have not much importance.

81 Smith ( 29 ), climb TT
82 Roman ( 32 ), tour
83 Millan ( 32 ), flat TT
84 Ros ( 33 ), climb
85 Vorre ( 28 ), allround helper

Good luck everyone ! 

[Aurora Australis]

You're not the only Aussie chasing a first victory for the season.  I'd never even thought about that before, because I'd been guaranteed victories every season with my original TTers.  I do have faith we'll both get a victory at Vuelta, me in stage 3 (Clickett), and you in stage 5.

331 Dean Shields   29
332 Kirk Clinton   23
333 Paul Clickett   33
334 Dudley Iverson   25
335 Jonny Alfier   19   

[Vos]

stage 1 Vuelta ;
13º  Roman  on 0:00"
27º  Ros
stage 3 Vuelta ;
5º  Millan
19º  Smith

A surprising good time trial of Millan and Smith.
But Roman did not do very well ( 49º on 2:55" ). Perhaps his 99 form caused this not so good time trial result, and/or he was unlucky.
In stage 2 Roman had a good damage control tactic ( 43º on 1:13" ), and nice to see that he is 12º GC at the moment.
Still it is doubtfull if he will be good enough to score GC points ; too soon to estimate if he has a chance without TC bonus (and with 99 form).

[Aurora Australis]

There were little more than a dozen flat-TTers at Vuelta, my 23-year-old with 65 health & 98 form made 16th, which won't happen in the WC TT.

[Vos]

Indeed, it explains that Smith could score points in a flat time trial, that almost never happens with his 41 flat skill.
Most likely this is by far his best result ever in a flat time trial. Good for his confidence towards stage 7.