Season 24

[Kekipi]

Excellent result of Arnau, who is now 16ºGC.

I did a cursory check of the current GC top 50 and found that some in it are climb and/or climb TT specialists, so, factoring those specialists out, the (actual/virutal) top 20 GC are

1. Azarov,  CaptainOrange
2. Salcedo (0:26), Flyvende_hjul
3. Steine (0:27), ValeronIdolo
4. Perec (0:38), OphiukoCT
5. Kover (0:46), HTCHungria
6. De Jong (0:51), Bikeos
7. Neuhaus (0:53), QuintoYtapa
8. Glibin (0:55), °Peachy°Melocotons
9. Usakov (0:59) Elgrand
10.  Picoli (1:01) FaltososDeChigre
11.  Arnau (1:02) SPORTLIFE
12. Robinson (1:14) ICSluj
13. Rombaut (1:25) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
14. Molinero (1:34) CajaRuralZamora
15. Costacutta (1:38) HTCHungria
16. Luinge (1:40) Antequera
17. Haan (1:42) LanihuliCycling
18. Corral (1:43) Bikeos
19. Hunter (1:49) Antequera
20. Gloor (1:49) Turrones

Pardon if I missed someone.  In any case, after the sprint stage later today, the GC rankings will be more readily apparent.

[Kekipi]

I did a cursory check of the current GC top 50 and found that some in it are climb and/or climb TT specialists, so, factoring those specialists out, the (actual/virutal) top 20 GC are

1. Azarov,  CaptainOrange
2. Salcedo (0:26), Flyvende_hjul
3. Steine (0:27), ValeronIdolo
4. Perec (0:38), OphiukoCT
5. Kover (0:46), HTCHungria
6. De Jong (0:51), Bikeos
7. Neuhaus (0:53), QuintoYtapa
8. Glibin (0:55), °Peachy°Melocotons
9. Usakov (0:59) Elgrand
10.  Picoli (1:01) FaltososDeChigre
11.  Arnau (1:02) SPORTLIFE
12. Robinson (1:14) ICSluj
13. Rombaut (1:25) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
14. Molinero (1:34) CajaRuralZamora
15. Costacutta (1:38) HTCHungria
16. Luinge (1:40) Antequera
17. Haan (1:42) LanihuliCycling
18. Corral (1:43) Bikeos
19. Hunter (1:49) Antequera
20. Gloor (1:49) Turrones

Pardon if I missed someone.  In any case, after the sprint stage later today, the GC rankings will be more readily apparent.

After the windless 3rd stage sprint race of S24 Giro Italia, this is the GC top 20, with race time in (m:secs).

1   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 00"  (0:54)   
2   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 24" (0:54)   
3   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   0: 25" (0:54)   
4   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre   0: 37"   (0:32)
5   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   0: 44"  (0:54)   
6   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   0: 49" (0:54)   
7   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   0: 51" (0:54)   
8   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   0: 57"  (0:54)   
9   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   1: 32"  (1:26)   
10   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   1: 38"  (1:57)   
11   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   1: 47" (0:54)   
12   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   1: 51" (0:54)   
13   Harry Rombaut   31   Álvaro_Pino_Boys   1: 54" (1:26)   
14   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   1: 55"  (1:57)   
15   Ferdinand Tajan   31   ValeronIdolo   2: 07" (0:54)   
16   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   2: 12"  (1:26)   
17   Phil Robinson   27   ICSluj   2: 15"  (1:57)   
18   Mario Campos   31   LanihuliCycling   2: 21"  (1:26)   
19   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   2: 24"  (1:26)   
20   Daniel Alejandro Viñas   32   SPORTLIFE   2: 26" (1:26)

Nice work by Picoli (FaltososDeChigre)   to be the only top 20 guy to finish @ :32.  Ten of the top 20 finished at 0:54, and six, including my captain Haan, are shaking their heads after finishing at 1:26".

The next races are flat TTs, and after examining the results of a previous flat TT (Tirreno Stage 2), I discovered the likelihood of more head-shaking by riders who are not so strong in flat races against the clock.

[Vos]

Giro stage 3, flat-sprint ;
82º  Arnau ( teamcaptain )   1:26"
87º  Viñas ( free role )   1:26"
Despite excellent help of Muntendam and Granberg, a dissapointing and unlucky s5 finish of the SPORTLIFE teamcaptain.
Arnau finished as 3rd of the 4th group and finished in the same time as his free role teammate, another indication that Arnau was unlucky.
With a little more luck Arnau would have finished in the 3rd group, what is 32 sec. faster, and that is a lot to a GC contender.

As the post of Kekipi already showed, Arnau moved up to 9ºGC despite this unlucky sprint result.
Free role tour cyclist Viñas moved up to 20ºGC.
After the 2 upcoming flat TT stages it will be more clear if Viñas is able to score extra GC points, and if Arnau can compete for a top GC result.

[Vos]

Giro stage 4, flat-TT ( storm ) ;
37º  Arnau   2:06" --> with mechanical breakdown in s4.
62º  Viñas   2:42"
GC = the unlucky Arnau dropped one place, and Viñas moved up one place.

[Kekipi]

Giro stage 4, flat-TT ( storm ) ;

The results for my two guys who have GC points ambitions.

46º  Haan   2:19"
61º  Campos   2:41"

The current GC top 20, with ST 4 TT time in (m:secs).

1   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 00"  (1:43)   
2   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 36"  (1:54)   
3   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   0: 47"   (2:05)
4   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre   1: 14" (2:20)   
5   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   1: 18"  (2:10)
6   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   1: 19"  (2:12)
7   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   1: 36"  (2:22)
8   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   1: 41"  (2:40)
9   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   1: 49"  (1:54)
10   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   1: 55"  (2:06)
11   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   2: 25"  (2:12)
12   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   2: 27"  (2:18)
13   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   2: 35"  (1:54)
14   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   2: 37"   (2:32)
15   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   2: 48"  (2:19)
16   Harry Rombaut   31   Álvaro_Pino_Boys   3: 00"  (2:48)
17   Phil Robinson   27   ICSluj   3: 17"  (2:44)
18   Mario Campos   31   LanihuliCycling   3: 19"  (2:41)
19   Daniel Alejandro Viñas   32   SPORTLIFE   3: 25"  (2:42)
20   Stefan Juhl   29   Antequera   3: 29" (1:49)

Another flat TT is on tap for later today in Stage 5.  We can anticipate some movement up and down in the GC as a result.

[Kekipi]

Giro stage 4, flat-TT ( storm ) ;

The results for my two guys who have GC points ambitions.

46º  Haan   2:19"
61º  Campos   2:41"

The current GC top 20, with ST 4 TT time in (m:secs).

1   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 00"  (1:43)   
2   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 36"  (1:54)   
3   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   0: 47"   (2:05)
4   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre   1: 14" (2:20)   
5   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   1: 18"  (2:10)
6   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   1: 19"  (2:12)
7   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   1: 36"  (2:22)
8   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   1: 41"  (2:40)
9   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   1: 49"  (1:54)
10   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   1: 55"  (2:06)
11   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   2: 25"  (2:12)
12   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   2: 27"  (2:18)
13   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   2: 35"  (1:54)
14   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   2: 37"   (2:32)
15   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   2: 48"  (2:19)
16   Harry Rombaut   31   Álvaro_Pino_Boys   3: 00"  (2:48)
17   Phil Robinson   27   ICSluj   3: 17"  (2:44)
18   Mario Campos   31   LanihuliCycling   3: 19"  (2:41)
19   Daniel Alejandro Viñas   32   SPORTLIFE   3: 25"  (2:42)
20   Stefan Juhl   29   Antequera   3: 29" (1:49)

Another flat TT is on tap for later today in Stage 5.  We can anticipate some movement up and down in the GC as a result.

Giro stage 5, flat-TT ( ) ;

The results for my two guys who have GC points ambitions.

45º  Haan   2:09"
60º  Campos   2:28"

Current top 20 GC, with time lost in ST 5 in (secs)

1   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 00"  (0)   
2   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 46"  (-10)   
3   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   1: 08"  (-21)   
4   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   1: 45" (-27)   
5   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   1: 50" (-31)   
6   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre  1: 54"  (-40)
7   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   1: 57" (-8)   
8   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   2: 17"   (-5)
9   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   2: 22"  (-27)   
10   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   2: 32"  (-51)   
11   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   2: 47"  (-12)   
12   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   2: 55" (-30)   
13   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   3: 06"  (-39)   
14   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   3: 23"  (-46)   
15   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   3: 26" (-38)   
16   Stefan Juhl   29   Antequera   3: 34" (-5)   
17   Billy Janson   26   Aurora_Australis  3: 39" (+91)   
18   Aziz Galak   24   JGMTeam   3: 56"  (-18)   
19   Andrew Dixon   28   Villavante   4: 06"  (+80)   
20   Harry Rombaut   31   Álvaro_Pino_Boys   4: 07" (-67)

Juhl, Janson, Galak and Dixon, all strong TT riders, will likely drop out of the top 20 after the next HHHHH race.   

[Vos]

Giro stage 5, flat-TT ( storm ) ;
36º  Arnau   1:58" --> again with a mechanical breakdown , now in s3.
61º  Viñas   2:28"
GC = 
Arnau is clearly riding a very unlucky Giro, now 9ºGC on already 2:22"
Viñas moved up 1 place after TT-stage 4, but after TT-stage 5 (with about the same result) he suddenly dropped 7 places to 26ºGC.

[Aurora Australis]

I have a cyclist in the top 20?

[Kekipi]

Viñas moved up 1 place after TT-stage 4, but after TT-stage 5 (with about the same result) he suddenly dropped 7 places to 26ºGC.

Vinas will likely move up to 19th or 20th after tomorrow's HHHHH race.  What happened is a bunch of TTers, who profited from the TT races, moved into the top 20.  Nice accomplishment by them!  If any of them have some hills skills, they might survive the next three races to stick around in the T20.   My guess is that all will be dropped after stage 6 is done.

[Vos]

Ok, thanks Kekipi, because I did not think of the possibillity that TT specialists could be high ranked.
I did not expect it due to stages 1 and 2, where the mountain skill is of big influence.

Now let's see what the impact is of the Italian hills on the GC ranking.
Viñas likes the hills, but to Arnau it will be in survival- and damagecontrol- mode the next 3 stages.
For a tour cyclist he has a low hills GV, no doubt that most tour cyclists are better in the hills.
And an extra worry ; Arnau has no sprint icon.
But I selected great helpers for the upcoming 3 stages, hopefully they can compensate a bit the deficiencies of Arnau.
Well, maybe I should be already happy if Arnau can defeat the "Rooster" in the final GC.

[Kekipi]

Now let's see what the impact is of the Italian hills on the GC ranking.

The stage 6 hills race (HHHHH) definitely had an impact, in particular for Salcedo (Flyvende_hjul), who moved into the lead in the GC, and also for Glibin  (°Peachy°Melocotons)and my guy, Haan, who both made a leap of four places in the standings. 

(previous GC place, GC time after stage 5)

1   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 00"  (2nd, 0:46")   
2   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 03"  (1st, 0:00")   
3   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   0: 50"  (5th, 1:50")   
4   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   1: 02"  (3rd, 1:08")   
5   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   1: 48"  (4th, 1:45")   
6   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre   1: 48"  (6th, 1:54")   
7   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   1: 51"  (7th, 1:57")   
8   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   1: 55"  (12th, 2:55")   
9   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   2: 11"  (8th, 2:17")   
10   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   2: 15"  (9th, 2:22")   
11   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   2: 25"  (15th, 3:26")   
12   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   2: 26"  (10th, 2:32")   
13   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   2: 41"  (11th, 2:47")   
14   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   3: 31"  (13th, 3:06)   
15   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   3: 49"  (14th, 3:23")   
16   Karl Johan Abelstedt   31   TeamSerfin   3: 57"  (??, 4:07+)   
17   Daniel Alejandro Viñas   32   SPORTLIFE  (??, 4:07+)      
18   Phil Robinson   27   ICSluj   4: 15"  (??, 4:07+)   
19   Orencio Molinero   32   CajaRuralZamora   4: 25" (??, 4:07+)   
20   Mario Campos   31   LanihuliCycling   4: 27" (??, 4:07+)   

Giro stage 6, HHHHH ;

16º  Haan   0:36"
19º  Vien   0:36"

Wonderful job of helping by Vien, a silver icon hiller, who scored his first-ever D1 points.   

[Kekipi]

Giro stage 7, FHHFhF

37º  Pensec   0:52" (Helper)
64º  Haan   0:52" (Captain)

Pensec likely would have scored if I had made him captain but the decision was to have him help Haan instead.  Given the hot, windy conditions, attacks were inevitable and we were able to keep Haan safely in the fold.  Haan was able to move into the top 10 GC, and now sits 9th.  Another member of our team, Campos, is in 18th place.

After stage 7, the top 20 GC is as follows:

1   Agapito Salcedo   29   Flyvende_hjul   0: 00"   
2   Dada Azarov   28   CaptainOrange   0: 03"   
3   Aad De Jong   29   Bikeos   0: 18"   
-------------------------------------------------------
4   Tor Steine   27   ValeronIdolo   0: 30"   
5   Thies Neuhaus   28   QuintoYtapa   1: 16"   
6   Alessandro Picoli   31   FaltososDeChigre   1: 17"   
7   Adrian Glibin   28   °Peachy°Melocotons   1: 24"   
8   Faustino Arnau   31   SPORTLIFE   1: 44"   
9   Wilco Haan   31   LanihuliCycling   1: 54"   
10   Xavér Kövér   33   HTCHungria   1: 55"
-------------------------------------------------------
11   Martine Perec   29   OphiukoCT   2: 16"   
12   Nazar Usakov   26   Elgrand   2: 35"   
13   Atila Bekker   32   team_piroshki   3: 00"   
14   Denny Rabe   30   Marcatone_Due   3: 05"   
15   Gustave Gloor   32   Turrones   3: 17"   
16   Phil Robinson   27   ICSluj   3: 44"   
17   Daniel Alejandro Viñas   32   SPORTLIFE   4: 35"   
18   Mario Campos   31   LanihuliCycling   4: 52"   
19   Karl Johan Abelstedt   31   TeamSerfin   4: 56"   
20   Harry Rombaut   31   Álvaro_Pino_Boys   4: 57"

   

[Vos]

Giro stage 6, hills ;
52º   Viñas ( free role )  1:26"
67º  Arnau   1:30"
Not such a good race. At least Arnau had the important s4 helper.
And compared to a perfect race, he lost just a few seconds, because there were no big time differences in this race.

Giro stage 7, hills-sprint ( 2x wind ) ;
45º  Arnau   0:52"
91º   Viñas ( free role )  1:48"
Perfect helper's job of Granberg, what caused a good result of Arnau, who finished in the 3rd group.
It seems that Viñas had a complete off-day, he should have done better.

GC = Arnau ( 8º ) is still 10 seconds ahead of Wilco Haan ( LanihuliCycling ). 

[Vos]

Giro stage 8, hills-sprint ;
24º  Muntendam ( free role )
27º  Granberg ("helper")
79º  Viñas ( free role )  1:16"
82º  Arnau   1:16"

The start was good, all 4 in the front peleton of 54.
But in s2 it went wrong, 3 dropped out of the front peleton of now 42. ( 25% of all dropped cyclists was SPORTLIFE ).
Only helper Granberg could follow in s2, and I forgot to make Muntendam a helper as well, so, Arnau was already isolated in s2.
I suspect it did not matter, because I'm almost sure that Arnau was not good enough anyway to finish in the 2nd group.
After all, he is not so good in the hills and he has no sprint icon.
Unfortunately, the time difference between 2nd group and 3rd group ( of Arnau ) was enormous = 0:40"

Arnau dropped in the GC and now 9º on already 2:24"

[Kekipi]

Arnau dropped in the GC and now 9º on already 2:24"

Yes, he dropped (as did my guy, Haan, the rooster  ), but with in his pocket for stormy Stage 9 (FCHFCm), Arnau appears poised for a rise of several places (to 6th?) in the GC.   

Meanwhile, Haan will be relying on the tactical genius (or idiocy) of his manager to obtain a beautiful and not a catastrophic result.

If it is the latter, we know who to blame.