Author Topic: Australia s32  (Read 697 times)

Vos

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Australia s32
« on: May 19, 2023, 01:04:05 PM »


NT season 32 ; again not a good season schedule.

Because this season schedule is for (flat-)hills-specialists, with 2 hills races. And Australia has low ranked hills specialists.
And it would have been much better if there was a hill-sprint race instead of a flat-sprint race.
Also a hills-TT race would have been much more benificial to Australia, than a flat-TT race.

But I'm already happy that this schedule has not 2 flat-TT races, what was the case in previous season.
It is hard to predict what Australia can achieve in this again not good season schedule. These are the 7 NT races :

season 32 schedule =

1.   South Australia  FFFFH  132 km
⭐⭐
Australia does not have high ranked hills specialists.
But despite Derek Jons is ranked as pure-hills specialist, I estimate that he seems quite capable of scoring points in this flat-hills race.
Although, due to the hard wind, this race is tactically very difficult and even unpredictable. A disaster race + 0 points is possible too.


2.   Bola del Mundo  MMMMM  169 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐
Australia has a top contender with Rick Cann ( nr 3 pure-climb of CFF ) who is going to try to compete for victory.
In previous season 2nd, but a bit worrying is that his support is devalued this season. Hopefully he can do it on his own in s4 + s5.


3.   Bellinzona  FFFFF  120 km
⭐⭐⭐
Hopefully the 32yo Horace Stamer is still good enough to score a top result.
Of course, it is a NT sprint and then anything can happen, from excellent race + top result, to disaster race + zero points.
In previous season Stamer dropped unexpectedly in s4, could return in s5, but a dissapointing 13th place due to the effort to return.
The Australian flat-sprint future does not look bright, because since many seasons, next season we will be missing a real top sprinter.


4.   Bourgogne  TT-FFFFF  35 km
⭐⭐
Perhaps 2 stars is even too much, because in the normal flat TT of previous season ; 9th and 20th, what is just 140 points.
Also this season I expect something like this, but as minimum result, because there is a possibility ( with luck ) of scoring more points.


5.   northern Switzerland  CCHHC^ 183 km
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A very few foreign amazing cobblehills specialists seem very hard to beat, and therefore no victory is expected
Nevertheless the max. of 5 stars, because Australia can be one of the few top scoring nations in this race, maybe even the best.
But then it has to go much and much better as in previous season, where Australia scored a dissapointing total of 180 points.


6.   Ohio, USA  HHHHH  175 km

Australians in the golden CFF hills ranking = nrs 30, 33, 40, 50, 84, 147, 170, 172.
So, the expectation should be very low.
But hopefull is that Derek Jons proved that he can achieve a superb result sometimes, like in previous season with a 7th place.


7.   Ciudad Real  CFFCC  230 km
⭐⭐
Currently we have the nr 7 flat-cobble specialist of CFF, Bob Pernom, who should do well, if the tactics go right.
In previous season he had a horrible race with as result a very bad 12th place.



« Last Edit: May 20, 2023, 12:59:41 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2023, 03:15:22 PM »


Australia u24 ( 92 cyclists ) :


Way less quantity ; 26 youth talents less than in previous season.
And the quality in the u23 DT has declined ; an all time low record of only 2 Australians in the u23 Dream Team.
And both are not useful for Australia ; a tour cyclist + a real flat-climber ( never before a real flat-climb NT race without downhill ).


CFF u23 Dream Team =
climb
5.  Rick McGee  ( 22, Elgrand )
tours
9.  Leroy Ellis  ( 22, Elgrand )


Everyone good luck with recruiting and scouting in Australia !  8)

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2023, 02:45:25 PM »
RACE 1 : South Australia

13ºC

Glenelg, a beach-side suburb of Adelaide, South Australia,
Normally this is already a tactical tricky race, but now with the hard wind, it makes it even more difficult ánd unpredictable.
Let's hope that Jons is still in the front when the decisive hill begins ; Corkscrew Road = 3,7km a 6,4%, incl. a steep part of 15%.

Australia goes full power with many helpers, they are most likely very needed due to the hard wind, and it gives more tactical options.
But hills is not our expertise, therefore even 2 silver cyclists get a surprising selection ; a 35yo, and an unexperienced 30yo free cyclist.

Below the 1st dot-line ; the back-up helpers who might be struggling in this windy race, but unfortunately we do not have better.
Below the 2nd dot-line ; the last place is for my favorite xp cyclist.
( for once I post my estimated race GV, and the selection order is from i.m.o. best to worst, with xp "added" to the race GV )

Australia NT selection :

88,4  Derek Jons ( 30 ) QuintoYtapa
87,4  Callum Carpenter ( 32 ) TeaMetal
88,3  Virgil Seaman ( 27 ) Álvaro_Pino_Boys
87,5  Oliver Lewis ( 24 ) azerite
- - - - - - - - -
84,8  Paddy Friend ( 35 ) Carvalho
85,7  Pete Dix ( 24 ) OphiukoCT     ( debut )
85,5  Alex Bird ( 30 ) ZwolseBalletjes     ( debut )
84,7  Kirk Middleton ( 28 ) KL_Cycling_Team     ( debut )
- - - - - - - - - -
74,4  Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2023, 11:15:24 PM »
11    Derek Jons      30   0: 00"   110      QuintoYtapa

I'm happy :) with this good result, because this race could have went horribly wrong with the strong wind.
Although it seemed that section 1 was windless ; there was an enormous first peleton of 138 cyclists.
But I assume that almost all foreign NT managers "wasted" EP too in section 1.

For sure the wind played a major role in the rest of the race, if I look at the energy used of the Australians.
For example free role Seaman dropped ( unexpectedly ) in s2, despite a not risky free role tactic with just a 2 EP finish.
Also free role Carpenter dropped in s2, but he had a very risky tactic ( incl. risky s2 ) in case the wind played not a big role.
Anyway, I could try to score a few extra points, despite this was very opportunistic considering the "strenght" of Australia.

And a bit of a gamble to rely on just 1 decent helper and 4 not so good back-up helpers.
Fortunately Lewis and Bird did amazing helper's jobs by keeping their teamcaptain in the front, and gave the important extra bonus for s5.

Australia ( 110 points ) starts with a 12º place in the season ranking. Not bad with a teamcaptain who is not listed as flat-hills specialist.
The nr 3 of previous season, Estonia, scored 160 points. And current world champion Italy scored zero points.
Colombia is the leader with 310 points, so, there was not a nation that scored a huge amount of points in this NT race 1.

Next week we go to Spain for a mountain race with summit-finish on the Bola del Mundo.

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2023, 07:06:28 PM »


Australia u22 ( 48 cyclists ) :

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2023, 11:21:25 PM »
RACE 2 : Bola del Mundo

12ºC

Segovia, Spain,
The 33yo free cyclist Mitchum still seems to be the best helper, so, the lack of good support is more worrying than I originally thought.
I assume that Rick Cann has to do it without the very important s4 helper, despite this, I expect that he will achieve a top result.

Australia NT selection :

Rick Cann ( 29 ) Atlanterhavet
Garret Mitchum ( 33 ) bikeandwine
Allan Sheehan ( 29 ) Stuttgarter
Ken Holland ( 29 ) Shiro_Lions
Stu Vaughn ( 32 ) Kelme4ever
Rick Pierre ( 29 ) Astanadena
Paddy Hines ( 31 ) Flandria
- - - - - - - - - -
Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante
Colin Ronnald ( 26 ) MortoviaCycling
« Last Edit: May 27, 2023, 07:58:33 PM by Vos »

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2023, 01:36:11 PM »
A very odd mountain race, where many things did not went like I planned.
Incl. a bad start of Cann, who could not follow the s1 front group of 26 and even dropped far behind in s2, and still was far behind in s4.
In all previous seasons this teamcaptain tactic would have been good, including the start.
Well, despite being far behind, Cann had help in every section, but of course, his result is very dissapointing and even embarrassing:-[

7    Rick Cann      29   0: 26"   150      Atlanterhavet
16    Stu Vaughn      32   0: 51"   60      Kelme4ever
17    Garret Mitchum      33   0: 52"   40      bikeandwine

Also odd, but now in a positive way ; two "helpers" scored extra points despite a zero EP finish.
What causes that Australia achieved a split 2nd place in the day ranking, together with Switzerland that also scored 250 points.
World champion Italy was the best nation with a total of 320 points in this odd mountain race.

TOP 10 season ranking after 2 races ;

    510
    500
    450
    390
    360
    320
    290
    260
    250
10    240

Next week a cold ánd stormy sprint race in Switzerland,
óh, óh, let's hope it turns out fine with this storm & high chance of a disaster race, but all foreign NT managers fear this race too. :))

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2023, 01:44:44 PM »


For the first time the NT lists of 19yo's. A nice high total of already 30 x 19yo's, because there is a new Australian team this season ;
Welcome and good luck TasmaniaDemons ! 8)

Australia u20 ( 30 cyclists ) :

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2023, 01:28:54 PM »
RACE 3 : Bellinzona

7ºC

Bellinzona, south of Switzerland,
This sprint race is expected to be chaotic due to the storm, with many surprising results possible.

All 5 Australians with a golden flat-sprint icon are selected.
Due to the expected chaos, I considered to select an extra silver helper, but only 2 "candidates" ; a 32yo and an unexperienced 25yo.
Both have a too low race GV, and maybe just 7-stars flat-sprinters, what is not good enough.

So, Stamer has to do it with just 4 helpers in this tricky, stormy race. Hopefully successful, but impossible to predict in advance.

A lot of space for xp-cyclists = the 2 best flat-TT-specialists, the flat-cobble-race-7-teamcaptain, and cobblehills-toptalent Shaun Sifford.

Australia NT selection :

Horace Stamer ( 32 ) TeamEuroscalt
Rob Blixter* ( 32 ) RajenKujen
Pete Odom* ( 24 ) Cabrasverdes
Adrian Janson ( 32 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Virgil Kelly ( 24 ) Rekutxuteam
- - - - - - - - - -
Bob Pernom ( 28 ) TeamEuroscalt
Shaun Sifford ( 23 ) Villavante
Sammy Alfier ( 29 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Rick Herd ( 29 ) SPORTLIFE
« Last Edit: June 04, 2023, 03:47:14 PM by Vos »

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2023, 11:58:20 PM »


I just noticed that the last NT race was my hundredth race as NT manager in CFF3.

TOP 5 of managers with the most NT races =

107   CC_Porco_Jones --> active this season as NT manager
105   TeamEuroscalt
105   JGMTeam
100   SPORTLIFE --> active this season as NT manager
  56   Aurora_Australis

Vos

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2023, 12:07:34 PM »
12    Horace Stamer   32   0: 11"   100      TeamEuroscalt

This sprint race did not went well ;
Stamer could not finish in the front group of 4, but finished in the 2nd group of 22, where he was outsprinted by 7 others.
A dissapointing result and just 100 points. The only free role cyclist had a bad race too and could not make it into the top 20.

Ten(!) countries scored more points than Australia.  :-[
World champion Italy ( 345 ) scored the most in this race. Also the nr 3 of previous season, Estonia ( 300 ), scored many more points.
And next week the flat time trial, where Italy is thé top favorite with the nrs 2, 3 and 4 of the CFF flat-TT ranking.
Also Estonia has 2 higher ranked flat-TT specialists than Australia.
This is not looking good, and it is even very doubtfull if Australia can battle for a 3rd podium place in the final season ranking.
But probably too soon to tell because this season is not even halfway yet.

TOP 10 season ranking after 3 races ;

    720
    665
    610
    590
    520
    500
    460
    450
    410
10    390

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2023, 12:12:54 PM »


Australia u20 ( 36 cyclists ) :


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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2023, 11:41:51 AM »
RACE 4 : time trial in Bourgogne

30ºC

Pont-de-Vaux, France ,
The best 9 flat-TT-specialists are selected. Most of them are not good enough to score points.
But you never know in a NT time trial, luck is a factor too, and maybe someone surprises with having a lot of luck.

In the normal NT time trial ( 40km ) of previous season, Australia scored just a total of 140( ! ) points with a 9th- and a 20th place.
Hopefully more points in this TT. But doubtfull, also because there are 3 active weather icons*, what can be benificial to foreign rivals.
Only the 2 youngest Australians have an active weather icon*. Maybe the 24yo Garza profits of that, despite his too low xp.

Australia NT selection :

Sammy Alfier ( 29 ) LOSRAYOSDELARRY
Rick Herd ( 29 ) SPORTLIFE
Edward Garza* ( 24 ) Catalonia_Team
Maurice Hunter ( 30 ) SPORTLIFE
Steve Boit ( 29 ) Bergtoppers
Pat Foley ( 30 ) bestiesnegres
Baron Ferdinand ( 29 ) Nibbixwoud
Dean Butcher* ( 24 ) Teamclaes     ( debut )
Nobby Sand ( 29 ) Statoil     ( debut )

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2023, 11:13:44 PM »
15    Baron Ferdinand      29   0: 13"   70      Nibbixwoud
17    Sammy Alfier      29   0: 13"   40      LOSRAYOSDELARRY
- - - - - - - - - -
33    Maurice Hunter      30   0: 16"   0      SPORTLIFE   --> with mechanical breakdown in the crucial s5
37    Pat Foley      30   0: 17"   0      bestiesnegres
41    Dean Butcher      24   0: 18"   0      Teamclaes
46    Edward Garza      24   0: 19"   0      Catalonia_Team
50    Steve Boit      29   0: 21"   0      Bergtoppers
52    Rick Herd      29   0: 21"   0      SPORTLIFE
72    Nobby Sand      29   0: 26"   0      Statoil    --> with flat tire in s4


Another Australian all-time low record in a flat time trial ; just 110 points. I guess that luck was not on the Australian side this time.
9 countries scored more points, but Australia did not drop in the season ranking, still 7th. The podium seems out of reach this season.

TOP 10 season ranking after 4 races ;

   1.135
    945
    810
    720
    700
    610
    570
    510
    500
10    480
10    480

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Re: Australia s32
« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2023, 08:50:43 AM »


Australia u20 ( 37 cyclists ) :